D&D 5E NPR - The Curse of the Black Lotus & D&D

[Dire Bare]

NPR's Planet Money just released an article about Magic The Gathering, and how it beat the "Curse of the Black Lotus". With all the talk about WotC's plans for D&D, I found this interesting and relevant.

Here's the NPR story: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2015/03/11/392381112/episode-609-the-curse-of-the-black-lotus?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20150312

Basically, in the early days, Magic was very much in danger of going the way of Beanie Babies. In other words, WotC had the potential to make killer short-term profits by catering to the speculators and likely giving Magic a very short life cycle. But they instead choose to try and beat that scenario and invest in Magic's long term profits and sustainability. Many fans (and speculators) derided them at the time, and they WERE giving up practically guaranteed amazing short-term profits. But since Magic turned 22 recently, it looks like their gamble played out. And as Magic fans who follow WotC's design and development for Magic already know, WotC has Magic design down to a science. Not that they don't make mistakes from time to time, and feel the need to change gears, but Magic has been an incredible long-term success for them that has no end in sight.

Today, WotC is trying something similar with D&D. Two different games with different needs, but perhaps a similar approach can do for D&D what it did for Magic. WotC has stated they hope to make 5th edition long term and sustainable, and that they are moving away from the splat-book driven edition treadmill that has resulted in shorter and shorter edition life cycles for the game. Even with their experience with Magic, repeating that success with D&D is new territory and WotC has also stated that they are basically experimenting as they go, and we should expect to see different approaches as new products are released. We have some fans relieved and excited about the new, leaner, release cycle for the game. And we have others upset that WotC has a light release schedule announced for 2015 and has explicitly stated they are trying to avoid saturating us with splats.

Personally, I feel that this is an experiment and isn't a guaranteed success for WotC, although the initial reaction and sales for 5E seem to be very favorable. But I am on board and very excited to potentially see an edition that might remain stable for 10 years or possibly longer, with fewer, but interesting releases each year. My wallet can't afford the old style splat inundation of 4E, 3E, and 2E, while at the same time I miss and am nostalgic for all of those great products.

What do you guys think? Is there any relationship between WotC's proven success with Magic and their new approach with D&D?

 

[Reynard]

I'm not sure there is much that can be drawn from the Magic experience to apply to D&D. Not only are they completely different games with completely different economics involved (D&D is essentially "free" once you buy in, Magic is a constant micro-transaction model) but also WotC is an entirely different company that it was during that time with an entirely different staff and mission statement. If there is any lesson that can be drawn, it is likely something as simple as, "Let the game work the way the game is supposed to." In Magic's case, that mean not letting the collectible element overpower the game part. In D&D's case, that probably means don't let the perceived tie-in value overwhelm the game part.

 

[Dire Bare]

I'm not sure there is much that can be drawn from the Magic experience to apply to D&D. Not only are they completely different games with completely different economics involved (D&D is essentially "free" once you buy in, Magic is a constant micro-transaction model) but also WotC is an entirely different company that it was during that time with an entirely different staff and mission statement. If there is any lesson that can be drawn, it is likely something as simple as, "Let the game work the way the game is supposed to." In Magic's case, that mean not letting the collectible element overpower the game part. In D&D's case, that probably means don't let the perceived tie-in value overwhelm the game part.

D&D and Magic are not the same. But they are not as different as you think, IMO.

After you purchase the Players Handbook for D&D, you don't *need* anything else, not even really the DMG or MM. And there are players out there who have done just that, purchased the PH and left it at that. And yet, we have folks complaining that the new release schedule for D&D is too light. Don't we have all that we need?

Magic isn't as dependent on new purchases as you make out. If you are an active fan of the game, you are very likely purchasing new cards all the time. Perhaps just a new booster every other time you visit the grocery store (most of my local grocery stores carry Magic, which is pretty awesome). Perhaps you are buying several booster cases every release and aggressively track down cards you're still missing on the secondary market. Not to mention the chase for promo cards. Or, you could be like several of my friends who have one shoebox full of older cards from when they were in college, and make do with that. My friends with small, older collections are constantly worried that my "new-fangled" cards are going to trounce them when we play, but they win as often as I do. And I'm no "Mr. Suitcase" and I can beat players who have boxes and boxes and boxes of cards.

WotC does market Magic to incentivize you purchasing new cards and keeping the game fresh and changing, but it isn't necessary to play and have fun. You don't need to spend a lot of money on D&D either, but WotC needs to continue to make money on the game. 4E was, IMO, an attempt to bring some Magic-style incentivization to D&D with spell cards and moreso Fortune Cards. It didn't work out.

I didn't claim, and I don't think WotC is trying, to market D&D in the exact same way as they do Magic. They've gone down that road already in some ways and it didn't pan out. But to have a similar approach towards sustainability of the game, long term profits trumping short term gain, that's what I am getting at in this thread.

 

[not-so-newguy]

The one Magic store I visited had cash prizes for tournaments. Glancing at their site they just had a tournament on March 8th with "over $2000 in cash prizes!"

Pure speculation: if your game can add gambling to the mix, it'll be a big money maker. I don't think American professional sports (as it does today) would exist without gambling. I'd include American college sports too.

I'm not knocking the game, or gambling. I know I've had some fun nights at the craps table!

 

[Riley37]

Is Hasbro on board with this project, or will they hire and fire WotC staff based on short-term splatbook profits?

I'd love to see WotC succeed, if this is among their goals.

I bought the HERO System Rulesbook when it was published. As a player, it was awesome: one book which met pretty much all my rules needs for all adventures in all settings. On another hand, is that a victory for the pubisher?

 

[Jeremy E Grenemyer]

I think this it would be great if WotC could create a D&D edition that is sustainable for years and years.

Planet Money is awesome too.

 

[Dire Bare]

The one Magic store I visited had cash prizes for tournaments. Glancing at their site they just had a tournament on March 8th with "over $2000 in cash prizes!"

Pure speculation: if your game can add gambling to the mix, it'll be a big money maker. I don't think American professional sports (as it does today) would exist without gambling. I'd include American college sports too.

I'm not knocking the game, or gambling. I know I've had some fun nights at the craps table!

The tournament circuit is different than casual play. Tournament Magic is important to the overall health of the game, but many fans don't bother with it. And there are levels. I occasionally play in small in-store tournaments where the prizes are special promo cards and the joy of being top dog for the day (I do not, however, win). The guys who go "pro" are in a different league!

I doubt we'll see a D&D Pro Tour anytime ever, but in-store play is important to WotC plans to grow and maintain the game. During 4E, special promo Fortune Cards were participation prizes, and DMs often got limited edition swag. Not sure if anything like that is happening now for the 5E Adventurer's League. If they did it right, I might be tempted to go down to my local FLGS and play in-store D&D for some cool participation prizes.

 

[GX.Sigma]

The one Magic store I visited had cash prizes for tournaments. Glancing at their site they just had a tournament on March 8th with "over $2000 in cash prizes!"

Pure speculation: if your game can add gambling to the mix, it'll be a big money maker. I don't think American professional sports (as it does today) would exist without gambling. I'd include American college sports too.

I'm not knocking the game, or gambling. I know I've had some fun nights at the craps table!

Entering a skill-based competition for a cash prize is not the same as gambling.

 

[Dire Bare]

Is Hasbro on board with this project, or will they hire and fire WotC staff based on short-term splatbook profits?

I'd love to see WotC succeed, if this is among their goals.

I bought the HERO System Rulesbook when it was published. As a player, it was awesome: one book which met pretty much all my rules needs for all adventures in all settings. On another hand, is that a victory for the pubisher?

WotC is Hasbro, Hasbro is WotC. WotC is a division within the larger company, but everything they do is Hasbro approved. It seems that Hasbro executives are pleased with the profits from D&D and the direction things are moving in, but that likely includes the entire D&D pie, not just the RPG. Why would Hasbro not approve of WotC trying to find the same type of success with D&D as they already have with Magic?

The idea of the "suits" at Hasbro acting as the Eye of Sauron and when their gaze falls upon the poor, innocent D&D designers destruction follows is a myth.

If you purchase one core rulebook and nothing else, is that a win for the game company? Well, its one sale for starters. And if you fall in love with the game, you'll likely tell your friends and encourage them to purchase that same rulebook. So, more sales there. Eventually, because you are playing so damn much, the rulebook falls apart and you'll want a new one. More sales. And, it's not as if WotC is totally abandoning additional player supplements, so there might be a PHB 2 or some other splat down the horizon you might buy, they just won't be released every month, or even every six months. And whomever is DMing your games, if they are loving it too, might buy the latest hardbound adventure. And you'll all go see the new D&D movie that might not suck, some cool D&D t-shirts, maybe a novel or too, some comics, and perhaps the new Sword Coast Legends video game, all based on how much you are loving your one rulebook.

So, yeah, it could be a win, if they do it right.

 

[Riley37]

the new D&D movie that might not suck

I find your abundance of faith... refreshing.

I would absolutely love for you to be right. If that means I'm wrong, it's a small price to pay!