OGL? SUccess or failure?

[Rasyr]

Well folks, you can blame BelenUmeria and diaglo for this post. I only made mention of my opinion in passing (should have known better) in another thread and they have asked me to expand upon my comments.... (and why do I have the feeling that by doing as they asked that I am opening a can of flaming worms? sheesh!).

The comment I made was basically that I think the OGL is a failure (in the long term). Now before you get the napalm ready, let me explain (or at least try to*).....

* = Several years ago, the company I worked for had us take those personality tests (forget what they are called) and I was a highly intuitive logical thinker, which the examiner explained to me as me having the ability to go from A to E without actually consciously hitting B, C, or D in getting to E. Thus, while I may arrive at the answer, it is sometimes difficult for me to explain how I got there, but in this instance I am going to give it a try.

To expand what I said above, yes, I think that in the long term (which hasn't been reached yet), that the OGL will be a failure. I also think that in the short term, not only has it been a success, but possibly too successful. A lot of my opinion regarding this comes from a gut reaction/instinct, which only means that my subconscious has integrated data that I may not have consciously noticed. However, there is data that I have noticed and which also figures into this as well. I will take the short term effects first.

Short Term - too successful? or not successful enough?

First - one of the stated purposes of the OGL was to reduce the overall number of systems on the market. This has not happened. There continues to be what amounts to a small stream of new games coming out every year. It may have hiccupped a little bit at first, but the stream continues (Meddling Kids, WHFRP2, Storyteller, Burning Wheel, HARP, etc...) I do not really see a decrease in the number of game systems. In this instance, I would say that it was unsuccessful.

Second - While it was expected that a number of companies would form or move to producing OGL content to support D&D, the actual numbers were at least an order of magnitude higher than expected. This had the effect of effectively flooding the market with product, a good portion of it of questionable quality (note: I am referring to 3.0 product mainly, not 3.5). In this instance I would say that it was too successful. It got to the point that distributors were refusing to deal with any more new companies, only with those who had established themselves early on.

Then came the release of 3.5 and the ripples that caused. Many companies went under at this point and those that remained hit hard times for a while as they had to abandon previous OGL stock or update it to 3.5, either way being a financial blow to the companies involved.

Long Term...

Now we start looking at the long term, and as I mentioned above, I don't think that we have fully seen the long term effects yet, and won't for a couple of more years. Ultimately, I think that the success or failure will be determined by WotC, and what happens if/when 4e comes out. But as always, there are other factors involved.

1) Companies are moving away from the OGL in general, and the d20 license in particular. The release of 3.5 had a very sobering effect on many companies. They realized that WotC could quite easily cause major havoc everytime a new edition was released. Many of these companies have begun moving away from the d20STL and/or even the OGL as well. They are diversifying, expanding so that another new edition would not be as disasterous for third party companies as the move to 3.5 was.

2) This move away is starting to increase in momentum, slowly but surely. This is, however, a Catch22 situation. Companies are moving away from the d20STL in order to protect themselves again a repeat of the situation that happened with the release of 3.5 and yet by moving away, they will be increasing the chances that a new edition will be coming sooner rather than later.

This is because as they move away, they are beginning to split the customer base. No longer is it just D&D and lots of supplements. Now you have D&D, C&C, Arcane Evolved, Iron Heroes, Mutants & Masterminds, True20, Spycraft, Grim Tales, and more. All vying for the same customers.

Each one does their own take on the core rules from the SRD, so in this aspect the OGL was successful, however, each variation splits the customer base in some manner, and pulls folks away from the core D&D, even if just for a while. In this aspect, the OGL is failing, as one of the core precepts of it was to allow other companies to support D&D, and sorry, but True20, IH, AE, and all the rest are not D&D.

3) Another of the precepts of the OGL was to create a large body of open gaming content that was easy for others to use in the main goal of supporting D&D. However, while there are some re-uses of OGC, it is not really all that wide-spread. The best mechanics are not always being re-used. Some of this comes from what is sometimes referred to as "crippled OGL". This is where a company create OGL content and then purposely makes it difficult for others to re-use it, either through unclear declarations, the PIing of names (without providing a more common name that can be used - which makes the re-use of material less likely as I see it), and many other smaller instances which make it difficult for OGC to be easily used.

Additionally, the flood of product that first came out also meant that there were many similar products in development at the same time. How many dragon books came out in a short span of time? 5? In any case, this paralell development of similar products precluded the use of OGC from another company as that other company was busy developing their own OGC for the same thing.

4) The OGL "appears" to be attemoting to turn the industry from being content producers to content consumers, and it looks as if companies are fighting this tooth and nail. How many times have there been thread about people wanting to cull OGL products and produce SRDs containing the OGC from those products? How many times have the companies involved not liked that idea? Companies want folks to purchase their products, and this is not a bad or wrong thing. However, unless the body of OGC that is available in SRD format grows, it will stagnate. Other companies are not going to want to purchase a rival's products to get the OGC, and they do not want their OGC made available for free while their products still have a shelf life. This is another of those Catch22 situations because by the time that the product's shelf life is essentially finished, nobody wants to use that OGC as they have already gone ahead and developed their own.

And please note that there ARE exceptions to everything that I am saying here (and in the paragraphs above and yet to come). I am speaking only of general trends that I have noticed, not in specific cases.

5) As I mentioned above, I think the ultimate success or failure of the OGL rests in what happens when WotC releases 4E. If they also release a SRD under the OGL for it, then my opinions in this could be very wrong. However, I don't think that they will release it under the OGL, and I think that is will be the straw that breaks the camel's back regarding this. While OGL products may continue for a few years (my guess is 10 years max) if 4E is not OGL, they will, IMO, eventuallystart fading away and the OGL will be nothing more than a memory and a footnote.

Well, there you have it. Those are my opinions and thoughts on the topic. I do NOT say that I am right and it is quite possible that I may be wrong (I don't think I am wrong, but I do admit the possibility - I am only human).

I urge you to take a couple of steps back and to attempt to look at the larger, overall picture and then form your own opinions regarding this. And please note that while I think that the OGL is (or will be, to be more exact) a failure in the long term, that I do think it it has worked pretty well in the past and that it currently is working somewhat well (though not optimally) in the present.

So let the flaming begin!

 

[Crothian]

It has also been successful. Wizards is still the big bad RPG company. It has allowed Green Ronin and Mongoose go from non existant to become major players in the RPG industry.

I think it is both, but from a consumer point of view I call it a success. It has allowed me to introduce different games to people becasue they were made d20 and the people didn't have to learn a new system.

I think the OGL had an effect on reducing the number of new systems, but the internet was stronger in allowing new systems to be invented. Look at all the new games that come out of the Forge, I doubt we would have that many if not for the explosion of gaming on the net.

So, there are other factors that go into each reason you claim means it failed.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

I'm kinda disappointed. Here I thought you were gonna explain why the OGL was already a failure, long term (if one wants to think of 4-5 years as long term). Instead, what you give here is speculation about how the OGL could become a failure in the future. Sure, your reasoning is logical, but it's still just speculation. Logical reasoning has been proven wrong about many things, often because something unforeseen has come about to throw a variable into the equation.

 

[scourger]

I think you're conflating the d20 license to some degree with the Open Gaming Liucense (OGL). In any event, I can only say that the licenses are starting to fail for me. The core d20 rules are about 1100-1200 pages: the PHB, DMG & MM. For me, the game is already information intensive enough without adding any additional rules from the host of books just published by WotC (never mind all the 3rd party publishers). Add to that the fact that d20 D&D is very top-heavy--the game gets mechanically & statistically harder to track at higher levels--and it makes the game too much to DM after low-to-mid levels (for me). A third party d20 setting or adventure or set of laternate rules that adds more complexity on top of that is even less appealing. An OGL product probably varies those rules in so many little ways as to make it virtually impossible for me to extend what little mastery I have over the d20 system to allow me to run that game easily enough to warrant buying it. In short, it's too much work for not enough play.

The result is that I'm more attracted to Savage Worlds and less attracted to d20 in general. I still like d20 and the idea that it is theoretically a universal system. It's just too much information and gets too difficult to run.

I've considered various ways to "fix" the d20 system for me. After reading a recent KODT Tale from the Table, I'm considering allowing exploding dice. I think it might have the effect of making combat more risky since anybody might be able to roll any number of critical hits or open-ended damage dice. I have really started to loathe the wars of attirtion that d20 combat becomes with each side chipping away at the massive hit point reserves of the other. I find it especially troubling when both sides have an array of magic spells and items to increase combat abilities and generally make the statistics more complicated.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.

 

[Rasyr]

CH - I will be the first to admit that there are factors that I have likely overlooked, or glossed over or not considered (and/or factors that I am not really at liberty to talk about). And I specifically state that I could be wrong becuase I know that it is quite possible.

Crothian - Yes, there have been successes, and there continue to be. I even mention that I do think that, in the short term, it has been successful (perhaps too successful).

All-in-all, I think that it has been less than a full success, and that it is doomed to be a failure in the long run. Point #5 is the one that I think will be the final nail in its coffin though.

And as always, these are just my personal opinions....

 

[Psion]

Wizards got other game companies to subsidize their risky third tier supplements at their own expense.

Some failed. That's the risk.

But many not only remain, but are growing strong.

Many have retreated from producing unprofitable lines. But most companies that remain in business have one or more d20/OGL lines they continue to support that must be profitable for them.

And as time goes on, the stuff that is being churned out any more tends to be very high quality.

Further, in one fell swoop, it successfully acheived one of the biggest goals I could possibly have for it: it prevents Rob Repp from ever happening again.

Now I would agree that it has not lives up to all of its promises. In particular, I am dissapointed at how little cross-polination and consolodation of systems has gone on.

 

[Psion]

Crothian - Yes, there have been successes, and there continue to be. I even mention that I do think that, in the short term, it has been successful (perhaps too successful).

That's ironic, because I consider the short term to be where it has got the blackest eye (over low quality stuff that came out when the d20 logo was still pretty much a free ticket for untried and/or untalented publisher) and it seems to me that just now is the d20 market starting to mature and put out some really high quality stuff.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

CH - I will be the first to admit that there are factors that I have likely overlooked, or glossed over or not considered (and/or factors that I am not really at liberty to talk about). And I specifically state that I could be wrong becuase I know that it is quite possible.

OK, but I guess my point is this: there have been umpteen doomsayers proclaiming the death of the OGL since just after it appeared. The subject's been done to death. Why not simply keep us updated on HARP (for example)? Will there be anything new and innovative coming soon for it?

 

[HellHound]

Success.

Other game systems are being released under the OGL, and this is a fabulous thing.

MORE game systems should be, but the authors and publishers are afraid of it for their own variety of reasons. That is the worst failing of the OGL to date - only the ACTION! system and d20-derived games currently use it (and a few very small-press games).

For the OGL to really suceed - other leading publishers have to stand up and show that they are willing to use it also.

That said, I will personally bet you any cash sum of your choice that there will still games published under the Open Game License 10 years after a non-OGL edition of D&D is released. And I mean it. The OGL will not die completely within this generation of publishers, unless a better Open License supersedes it.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

Further, in one fell swoop, it successfully acheived one of the biggest goals I could possibly have for it: it prevents Rob Repp from ever happening again.

I have no idea who/what this is. Sounds interesting. Would you be willing to give some backstory for the ignorant (me, in other words)?

Now I would agree that it has not lives up to all of its promises. In particular, I am dissapointed at how little cross-polination and consolodation of systems has gone on.

Agreed.