Ok, now i'm REALLY CONFUSED. AKA, do any of you think you know what WotC is doing?

[caudor]

Yeah, it's not looking good.

A juggler still counts as a good juggler until one of the balls hits the floor. Right up until it actually hits, the audience can think that there's some way he's gonna pull it out.

Yep, good quote. I sincerely hope that the ball never hits the floor. I like my D&D.

In noting my observations, I'm not trying to make others nervous or suggest WotC is doomed to fail. I'm just explaining why I'm nervous after watching how recents events have unfolded.

So yeah, it's not looking good. I'm no expert. This is one of those times I hope my gut is wrong though.

 

[eyebeams]

So you have just as much experience in this as I do, got it.

If we're in the realm of absurd specificity, the answer is indeed, "yes."

I think any reasonable person can see <my position>

That's the beauty of that statement - it can literally be applied to anything.

I am not required to restate examples over and over again. Once should be sufficient.

Don't even know what you're trying to say here.

Okay.

What we do know is that one of the big problems TSR had was in fracturing their fanbase with multiple settings. In other words, people would be really into one setting and would not buy the products of the other setting. I mean, have you seen the graph of how many products were being released?

No, you do *not* know this. You *think* you know this because it was told to you over and over again as part of a conversation marketing campaign designed to win over reluctant adopters of 3e.

Is this the same Star Wars IP that has slowly grown to be poisonous? Force Unleashed II didn't sell nearly as well as hoped and was ripped apart by gaming journalism - the most easy to placate reviews imaginable.

The idea that the game undersold compared to one of the most popular iterations of the Star Wars property ever is . . . to be expected. And still successful. I think you are mistaking not fancying the game for something that matters to this conversation.

Also, see the rest of the last decade.

Having a strong and well defined setting can work against you. Again, this is the lesson TSR learned rather harshly.

The only strong factual statement from WotC was that TSR's had a poor stock management system that overvalued inventory. This can cause serious problems on its own.

Besides, I'm fairly certain surveys showed that most players don't even use preset settings, they make their own.

This supposes a simple relationship between game settings and game play. See, the Frustrated Novelists WotC kicked out of the building so you could go back to the dungeon probably understood that it's not as simple as accepting or rejecting a setting, but the designers of market research surveys? Not so much. Then again, market research surveys and their conclusions are usually cart-horse constructions in any privately held firm anyway.

Man, speak for yourself . I love anime and jRPGs. Heck, I advertised Alshard, a very Japanese tabletop game on the "How to introduce new players" thread. Drizzt is silly, sure, but he's not as popular with the young kids as he used to be.

You are under the mistaken impression that anybody cares about Japanese tabletop RPGs. Few Japanese people care about Japanese tabletop RPGs. I'm talking about the result you will get when you Google JRPG, not a sub-sub-hobby. I mean, I think there are cool ideas and all in them, but they don't matter.

But that has nothing to do with this statement that 4e is doooooooomed, and that the reason is because they didn't split their fanbase apart enough.

I can see loads of ways to make 4e something other than a competitor in a race with Pathfinder and the OSR to see who can alienate anybody born after 1980 the fastest, so in that sense I don't think it's doomed at all. Otherwise, it can linger on in one form or another for ages without having to appeal to people who don't care about "gamism," the red box, or the Efreeti on the DMG1e. I love all those things, sure, but there seems to be a failure to communicate this.

 

[Aberzanzorax]

If I believed every passionate fans who are telling me something is dying then there would literally be zero products left.

The doom and gloom hearing here is the same we heard when Gamma World came out (They're going to cancel D&D!)

Or when Essentials came out (Welcome to 4.5, 4e lovers hah hah hah!)

Or when Dark Sun came out (Hope you enjoy them utterly ruining the old school setting!)

Or when Eberron setting came out (Remember Forgotten Realms, that's what your precious setting is going to become!)

Or when 4e came out (I give it a few months, tops!)

Maybe if someone who genuinely cared about the game and genuinely loved 4e and genuinely knew the ins and outs of the industry and they said there was a good reason to be very worried, I'd take it in stride. But that's not happening.

What is happening is that a lot of people that have been preaching the death of D&D for years, people who have done nothing but attack and insult WotC and 4e since the day it came out, are crowing on how they were apparently right "all along."

Edit: And wishing things would go back to the days of TSR is the very definition of nostalgia goggles. Boy 2e sure was fun, what with D&D literally choking itself to death and the company suing their own fans into oblivion.

But THIS time, even the 4e fans are worried. Not those who dislike 4e...the fans.


I'd consider this time a bit different for that reason alone, but also for more reasons than that.


What you mention are a lot of single events, many of which are fairly minor, and in no real context. Yes there were people willing to nix WotC at those times. But now? There seems to be a confluence of numerous events...even if it's not doom and gloom...even if not "the end" of 4e or even of D&D (which, by the way, I don't think it's the end of either), I do think this time, and these events, are a bit MORE, and a bit different.


I think we'll see big changes of some sort or another over then next month, 6 months, year, and few years. Probably changes that will rock D&D (and possibly 4e) to the core (and who knows, maybe in a good way).

But, as I asked in the OP (because I do think WotC is up to something, and up to something BIG)....what do you think they are doing?

 

[Rel]

PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY:


Recent announcements by WotC are understandably having an impact and causing some concerns amongst the gaming community. I can appreciate that people have opinions about these things and that some of those opinions are held passionately.

This does not change the rules of ENWorld.

You can discuss those opinions in a reasonably friendly and respectful manner, you can keep those opinions to yourself or we can give you a vacation from the site until you're able to do one of those things.

Be nice.
Be quiet.
Be absent.

Those are the options.

 

[Glade Riven]

Like many companies, WotC is in the middle of a transition as the digital age is undermining business models that worked 5, 10, 20, even 40+ years when it comes to communications (print, TV, movies, etc). They have to find a way to expand a rather niche industry to increase profitability at the same time. These are untested, uncharted waters and chances are that WotC is going to have to pioneer this new business model in ways that are different than smaller companies.

What has worked for Paizo would not work for WotC. Paizo is smaller, and smaller companies (theoretically) have an advantage in that it's easier to move a molehill than a mountain. So it isn't as easy for WotC to adapt quickly.

WotC had a lot of lofty goals when 4e came out, when they restructured Dragon and Dungeon, and came up with DDI. Some of it has succeeded, some of it has not, leading to decent but not stellar results. In the end, the company fell short of the goals. Some of the reasons we know from observations. Some of the reasons we will never know because no company (rightly so) shows off their inner workings. Suffice to say, they've still made money, but the brand and the market doesn't seem to have really expanded in the way they wanted to. So the company is making adjustments.

For right now, what appears to be happening is that WotC is focusing less on printed books that people keep complaining about buying and has started focusing on adding DDI content, through the use of weekly columns instead of just monthly updates. They're probably pulling copywriters and game designers from book production and shifting them to DDI because it is cheaper than hiring new people.

What I predict is that WotC is going to continue to support 4e in this manner, while releasing more peripheral products under the brand (board games, for instance). This will continue as they work out a strategy and start executing a plan for "5e." We probably won't start seeing the results of that plan until 2-3 years down the line, because product development takes time. While I would prefer that "5e" be something more akin to SW:Saga in mechanics, the current trend for the company suggest that "5e" will be a hybrid between a board game and what we know as an RPG. The system will probably be significantly simplified compared to 3.5 & 4e, yet have additional modular systems for optional new mechanics. Instead of picking up a $30-$50 book, you'd be picking up a $30-$50 box sets, with some lower-end add-ons (probably with several price points under $20). Want to play a monk, but the class is not in core box? Pick up a booster pack with all the monk class rules, cards, tokens, etc - maybe even a collectable mini - for $7.95 or some such thing.

Would I play it? Probably - I'd at least pick up the first box set to see how it works. Would it be D&D? Not as we know it. Could it make a profit? If done right, then yes - it can.

 

[pemerton]

I can see loads of ways to make 4e something other than a competitor in a race with Pathfinder and the OSR to see who can alienate anybody born after 1980 the fastest, so in that sense I don't think it's doomed at all. Otherwise, it can linger on in one form or another for ages without having to appeal to people who don't care about "gamism," the red box, or the Efreeti on the DMG1e.

Eyebeams, I generally enjoy your posts on the industry and on these non-technical aspects of game design.

I'd be interested if you'd elaborate a bit on the passage I've quoted. What direction would you take 4e in?

 

[Walking Dad]

...

Or when Essentials came out (Welcome to 4.5, 4e lovers hah hah hah!)

...

Essentials:
MV monsters replacing MM ones in the Compendium. check
New announced book mostly support Essential class philosophy (Heroes of Shadow). check
PH (1-3) feats becoming updated or quasi replaced in the Essential line (expertise feats). check
Essentials getting it's own different tag on EN World. check

...

Or when Eberron setting came out (Remember Forgotten Realms, that's what your precious setting is going to become!)

...

BBM. Many were disappointed by the setting changes and time jump. Just as others predicted.

And some saw the Gamma World cards and said: "There will be collectible cards for D&D, too."
- Now we have them.

Not every theory in the internet is false.

 

[Walking Dad]

...

I can see loads of ways to make 4e something other than a competitor in a race with Pathfinder and the OSR to see who can alienate anybody born after 1980 the fastest,

....

How are you getting this from Pathfinder, if I may honestly ask?

 

[Tarek]

Hasbro understands boardgames. Hasbro does not understand roleplaying games. Therefore, to make the products comprehensible to Hasbro exectutives, WotC will likely turn D&D into a board game over time.

 

[Keefe the Thief]

Hasbro understands boardgames. Hasbro does not understand roleplaying games. Therefore, to make the products comprehensible to Hasbro exectutives, WotC will likely turn D&D into a board game over time.

Or into a CCG. Or an MMO. Or a collectible dice game - that Star Trek CDG was rad.