Open Gaming predictions one year from now

[payn]

The industry will be fine, even 5.5E. Maybe a few lost sales but honestly I think it’s great for other producers and game systems to get some love.

 

[John Dallman]

WotC and D&D crashing and burning would suck for their fans, but would have basically no real negative impact on the industry. Quite the opposite. Once D&D is not longer strangling the life out of the industry other games will be able to flourish.

A D&D crash would take out many FLGS as collateral damage. The loss of sales on core books would tip some them over the edge of viability. I don't know how important FLGS are in today's US market - they're now quite rare in the UK and people here have learned to cope without them - but they could well shrink a lot.

 

[delericho]

I can see three scenarios. I'll note that at this point I don't think it actually matters whether OGL 1.0a is actually revocable or not - I very much doubt we'll ever actually see a ruling in court, and anyway I think the dust will have settled before it comes to that.

Most likely: WotC go ahead with OGL 2.0 in some form, and declare 1.0a de-authorized:

A relatively small, but relatively vocal, segment of the player base take great pleasure in telling WotC exactly what they think of them.

D&D continues, but the PR damage is significant. The playtest goes on, but without much enthusiasm (though, ironically, the %age of acceptance goes up - just with many fewer responses). D&D Beyond sees a small number of additional account deletions, but gains very few new accounts. However, a lot of paid subscriptions switch to free accounts. The D&D movie launches and does okay-ish (but is considered a failure by Hollywood standards) - but that's nothing to do with the OGL. The execs responsible fail upwards, either being promoted or moving to better paid jobs elsewhere.

And the 50th Anniversary year starts with a whimper - it all feels much more like a wake than a celebration.

Meanwhile, as many 3pp as can manage it shift to ORC. We lose an awful lot of the smaller 3pp, and the ones that are left are diminished. D&D's 3pp support is much-reduced, and almost entirely confined to the Guild - virtually nobody signs up to OGL 2.0.

Everyone loses from this.

Second most likely: WotC leaves OGL 1.0a exactly as-is:

The same as above, except that more of the small 3pp continue, and D&D has a bit more 3pp support using OGL.

Least likely: WotC backtracks entirely, and releases an OGL 1.0b that is more explicitly irrevocable

Most, but not all, of the damage is avoided - companies continue using the OGL, eeryone breathes a sigh of relief, and WotC is mostly forgiven. Gradually things go back to more or less where they were.

The D&D movie launches and does okay-ish (but is considered a failure by Hollywood standards) - but that's nothing to do with the OGL.

Oh, and one of the execs responsible (probably whichever is most junior) is messily fired.

 

[Voadam]

I think there might be the beginning of a legal conflict as WotC goes live with their new license and declares 1.0 "de-authorized" and tries to say no new OGL stuff to the entire industry.

They could try to just bully everyone with threats of lawsuits, but once it is in action things get interesting if not everybody knuckles under and anyone continues to publish. That is when WotC will need to decide whether to push their legal interpretation in an actual court case.

Paizo has declared their contrary interpretation of the OGL's authorized clause and willingness to fight in court if necessary. They could make a stand by continuing to publish under the OGL. Or they could drop OGL for redoing Pathfinder 2 from scratch not under the OGL so it can go under ORC, but still have an interest in fighting WotC's assertions and they could intervene in any lawsuit WotC brings about the OGL against licensees.

So in one year I think this could be in the beginning stages of litigation. Litigation takes time, even getting to filing the case, but a couple months after WotC's new license drops I think we have a good shot of filings being in progress.

 

[Reynard]

Considering I have been wrong with every other prediction I have made during this process, why not!

I predict this is going to push a court case that is going to decide once and for all that anyone can make compatible material without a need for a license.

I also predict official D&D will remain far and away the most popular and dominant force in the industry.

 

[Umbran]

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system.

ORC is not a system. It will be a license ("Open Role-playing Creative license") that, we are told, any publisher will be able to use to publish their own systems.

So, no, it will not be a go-to system. It may be the go-to license for content creators, but it says nothing about the underlying system.

 

[Greggy C]

I think the only people who search for licenses are the small percentage of creators.
99% of real gamers search for good games, not good licenses.
I'm sure ORC will be popular though, since there was some reason people didn't like Creative Commons, I don't remember why.

What I find stunning is:

Find Online D&D and TTRPG Games and Groups | StartPlaying

Search 1000's of upcoming online tabletop roleplaying games. Search by game system, virtual tabletop, date, and Game Master. Find a new D&D campaign or sign up for a one-shot with your favorite TTRPG.

startplaying.games

The results from that when I looked 3 months ago was 95% 5th edition.
While 5e is still dominant, it is a crazy mix of many games that were not there before.

Never piss off the dungeon masters, the people who choose the games to run.

 

[overgeeked]

A D&D crash would take out many FLGS as collateral damage. The loss of sales on core books would tip some them over the edge of viability. I don't know how important FLGS are in today's US market - they're now quite rare in the UK and people here have learned to cope without them - but they could well shrink a lot.

Alternatively, shops could flourish without D&D. You assume that all those sales are D&D or nothing so no D&D, no sales. Not true. The people into RPGs would simply buy other RPGs. The people new to RPGs would come in and talk to the shop workers and get recommendations if they didn’t already gave something in mind.

 

[Sacrosanct]

ORC isn't a system, it's a license.

Slip of the brain tongue. I meant 3PP moving from OGL (using DnD 5e system as outlined in SRD) to ORC (using whatever systems will be covered under ORC).

 

[aco175]

Am I right in thinking that Hasbro can come out with a 6e and then revise the OGL to what they want. This will force people to play with the old edition and keep the OGL1.0 or change to the new OGL if they want to keep 6e players. I am guessing that ORC will only allow people to play and develop 5e things based off the 5e SRD.