Open Gaming predictions one year from now

Sacrosanct

Legend
Publisher
We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.
 

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aco175

Legend
It will be hard to de-throne D&D either way. One can make a ironclad open system and it will still not matter to the 95% of players who have no clue. Some will depend on how compatible ORC is to D&D and how easy I can play those adventures as D&D. Most people play "D&D" with a casual group and if I bring in a 3pp module, my table will not think differently.
 


Sacrosanct

Legend
Publisher
It will be hard to de-throne D&D either way. One can make a ironclad open system and it will still not matter to the 95% of players who have no clue. Some will depend on how compatible ORC is to D&D and how easy I can play those adventures as D&D. Most people play "D&D" with a casual group and if I bring in a 3pp module, my table will not think differently.
For clarity, I'm not saying the other system will dethrone D&D as far as popularity and player base goes. I'm talking about who will be using which license to make things. I.e., 3PP would use ORC more than they would use OGL 2.0, and they would use ORC if they want other people to play their system rather than create their own (which will get lost in the chaff)
 

aco175

Legend
Can Wizards force one? I imagine that making ORC is the attempt to circle the OGL and cut Wizards out totally. I can see 1D&D maybe changing things more than we thought and it being more a 6e then in order to come out with the new OGL for that edition.
 


Parmandur

Book-Friend
We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.
Too many unknown factors. Partly depends on where WotC lands in the end.

D&D is going to remain the 600 pound gorging the room, if the terms are sufficient, people will take them fir the market share
 



We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.
Players and DMs don't buy licenses. They buy games and content related to games.

D&D will still be number one because there are tens of millions playing the game and no one else is close to that.

Step one for all these places abandoning D&D is not "find a license." It's survive by selling to a current audience of zero.
 

My prediction: A year from now, WotC's slip into the Trust Thermocline will have accelerated after they push through an OGL 2.0 that attempts to de-authorize the 1.0a. They will try to launch several new MTG initiatives, but the wallet fatigue and general disgust the MTG player base has for them will lead to middling sales of flagship products, which will completely fail to right the ship. The ORC siphons off disgruntled creators while Youtubers and influencers make their plans for their own lines of Fantasy Heartbreakers, leading to a dearth of D&D-related content. In response, WotC will accelerate OneDnD playtests to maintain enthusiasm, which works right up until there comes a change that causes some major outcry. They will also try to launch a legal challenge to SRDs in the ORC to hamstring it (likely not by targeting Pathfinder, but a Fantasy Heartbreaker by a smaller and more vulnerable company) -- the outcome of this is uncertain.

After several bad quarter reports (possibly accelerated by a country-wide recession), Hasbro starts getting more rabid. If these quarter reports are bad enough to trigger a sell-off, one or more senior executives are threatened with the axe, and make even more drastic decisions. This triggers an irreversible deathspiral that drags Hasbro into bankruptcy, putting the future of D&D in doubt as Hasbro's asserts are carved up to satisfy creditors.

TL;DR: Hasbro drags D&D into a deathspiral, and takes the entire industry with it.
 

overgeeked

B/X Known World
TD;DR: Hasbro drags D&D into a deathspiral, and takes the entire industry with it.
I absolutely do not see a connection between the first and second parts of that sentence. WotC and D&D crashing and burning would suck for their fans, but would have basically no real negative impact on the industry. Quite the opposite. Once D&D is not longer strangling the life out of the industry other games will be able to flourish.
 
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I absolutely do not see a connection between the forst and second parts of that sentence. WotC and D&D crashing and burning would suck for their fans, but would have basically no real negative impact on the industry. Quite the opposite. Once D&D is not longer strangling the life out of the industry other games will be able to flourish.
I admit, this is my pessimism talking. I don't have a lot of faith in the future of the US right now, of which this is but a microcosm.
 

overgeeked

B/X Known World
I admit, this is my pessimism talking. I don't have a lot of faith in the future of the US right now, of which this is but a microcosm.
Oh, yeah. We’ll be lucky to survive as a country for another few years. And maybe a decade or two longer as a species. But D&D burning down won’t drag the industry with it. See. It’ll be fine.
 

TheAlkaizer

Game Designer
TL;DR: Hasbro drags D&D into a deathspiral, and takes the entire industry with it.
If by industry you mean the major players that employ many employees and operate as corporations and have products on shelves all over the world, I think it's unlikely but possible.

If by industry you mean everyone making TTRPGs, hell no. In this day and age, someone on the other side of the world can make a ruleset, put it on itch.io, you buy it with your credit card, print it and be playing the same evening. There's so little friction that this cannot die.
 


GreyLord

Legend
Oh, yeah. We’ll be lucky to survive as a country for another few years. And maybe a decade or two longer as a species. But D&D burning down won’t drag the industry with it. See. It’ll be fine.

Wow, this thread has gone from depressing to even more depressing in just a few posts!

I don't know what the future holds, but I hope that I'll at least be alive for a few more years and teaching the younger generation how to play AD&D!

There's a Transformers movie coming out this summer. I've seen all these movies with one of my kids who loves Transformers, looking forward to that. Didn't they have a Transformers RPG coming out or something. That's right, I just looked it up. I should get that and try it out!

As for the future, I don't know. My crystal ball is cloudy right now. I really have no idea what's going to happen at this point. It looks grim on several fronts so it could turn out sad and bad all wrapped into one unique package. I hope it starts turning brighter, but I have no idea.
 

Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.
ORC isn't a system, it's a license.
 

aco175

Legend
I’ll be playing DnD in my bunker. Probably with my volleyball Wilson and a few stuffed animals.
Watch out for Wilson, he tries to fudge dice.

1673792087599.png
 

Players and DMs don't buy licenses. They buy games and content related to games.

D&D will still be number one because there are tens of millions playing the game and no one else is close to that.

Step one for all these places abandoning D&D is not "find a license." It's survive by selling to a current audience of zero.
This. I love Kobold Press material. Me and members of my gaming group combined have spent well over 2k on their 5E material the past 5 years but if they stop making D&D compatible material they will never see another penny from us most likely. just Don’t spend money on systems we don’t play.
 

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