Open Gaming predictions one year from now

[Sacrosanct]

We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.

 

[aco175]

It will be hard to de-throne D&D either way. One can make a ironclad open system and it will still not matter to the 95% of players who have no clue. Some will depend on how compatible ORC is to D&D and how easy I can play those adventures as D&D. Most people play "D&D" with a casual group and if I bring in a 3pp module, my table will not think differently.

 

[Nikosandros]

The OP is about licenses, not systems. In fact, ORC will not be a game to play, but a vehicle through which open gaming content can be shared.

 

[Sacrosanct]

It will be hard to de-throne D&D either way. One can make a ironclad open system and it will still not matter to the 95% of players who have no clue. Some will depend on how compatible ORC is to D&D and how easy I can play those adventures as D&D. Most people play "D&D" with a casual group and if I bring in a 3pp module, my table will not think differently.

For clarity, I'm not saying the other system will dethrone D&D as far as popularity and player base goes. I'm talking about who will be using which license to make things. I.e., 3PP would use ORC more than they would use OGL 2.0, and they would use ORC if they want other people to play their system rather than create their own (which will get lost in the chaff)

 

[aco175]

Can Wizards force one? I imagine that making ORC is the attempt to circle the OGL and cut Wizards out totally. I can see 1D&D maybe changing things more than we thought and it being more a 6e then in order to come out with the new OGL for that edition.

 

[overgeeked]

I predict by February or March we should have an ORC license. Within a few months there will be a dozen games using the ORC license.

 

[Parmandur]

We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.

Too many unknown factors. Partly depends on where WotC lands in the end.

D&D is going to remain the 600 pound gorging the room, if the terms are sufficient, people will take them fir the market share

 

[TheAlkaizer]

Don't very popular systems already use other licenses like Creative Commons? I remember reading that Mork Borg had some 1500 third-party products made for it.

 

[Parmandur]

Don't very popular systems already use other licenses like Creative Commons? I remember reading that Mork Borg had some 1500 third-party products made for it.

Money, and network externalities.

 

[bedir than]

We all know Paizo is launching the ORC Open gaming system, and Kobold press is onboard with Project Black Flag. We also know a lot of publishers are writing their own systems (I'm part of one such collaboration). But I think the writing is on the wall.

If you want more than just a handful of people using your system, you need to be onboard with ORC. The market will have dozens of other systems created, but none of them will gain any real traction. You need branding and the ability to get the word out, and to show that a lot of gamers would adopt your system over someone else's.

The advantage is clearly with ORC. By this time next year, even if WoTC keeps the OGL 1.0, ORC will be the only other go-to system. If 1.0 stays around, it will still be #1. If it goes away and is replaced by 2.0? Then ORC will take the top spot.

That's my prediction.

Players and DMs don't buy licenses. They buy games and content related to games.

D&D will still be number one because there are tens of millions playing the game and no one else is close to that.

Step one for all these places abandoning D&D is not "find a license." It's survive by selling to a current audience of zero.