After reading (and participating) in the recent LONG orbs vs. evocations thread, I decided to gather data to see if the anecdotes brought forth were valid. My results, I think, are interesting, and have caused me to reassess my position on the orb spells.
This attached file is a spreadsheet which calculates average damage for a wizard of level N using both an orb spell and an evocation against all the monsters in the SRD with CR of N.
It goes from level 7 (when orbs are first available) until level 16 (just after their damage cap). That is half the game- and about 200 monsters. Feel free to play around with the numbers as you will.
The model takes critical hits and monsters' always on/at will abilities into account. It assumes the spell uses the element targeting the monster's lowest Energy Resistance. The mage progressions are shown in the spreadsheet. No special feats are used for either build- I assume they would cancel out. E.g. giving the evoker Spell Penetration and GSP is canceled out by giving the orb slinger Weapon Focus and Imp. Critical.
The summary data is as follows. Data from each level is the average for all the monsters at that CR targeted by a wizard of that level:
The key stat is the ratio between orb damage and evocations- it's how many monsters need to be caught in the Area of Effect for evocations to be worth it.
As you can see, orbs start out fairly balanced with evocations. They do more damage, and have a non-negligible chance for a secondary effect but it’s not egregious for the first few levels. After level 10 or so the ratio takes off and becomes pretty big. Almost all monsters at high CR are large or huge, so managing to fit 3 of them in a AoE is not trivial. Above level 13, orbs are really very very good.
The ratio rises from 1.1 to 2.8 because:
-Touch ACs suck at every level. Therefore, a non-tricked out orb slinger has 90% average chances to hit above level 12- ranged touch attacks become more effective while the evoker's ability to get through the targets' Reflex save and (especially) SR goes down.
-SR is a big factor at high levels. It isn't very common until level 12 or so. But it is really really important after level 13. For the evoker, % to get through SR starts at above 90%, drops way down.
Because orbs seem to be a problem only in the double digit levels, I'm thinking a solution is to allow them, but give them a 10d6 damage cap- that would change nothing until level 11. The ratio would then remain at about 1.5 or so at higher levels.
(As an aside, I never realized how much lower Reflex saves are then Fortitude saves for almost all monsters. They are a few points lower at every CR)
This attached file is a spreadsheet which calculates average damage for a wizard of level N using both an orb spell and an evocation against all the monsters in the SRD with CR of N.
It goes from level 7 (when orbs are first available) until level 16 (just after their damage cap). That is half the game- and about 200 monsters. Feel free to play around with the numbers as you will.
The model takes critical hits and monsters' always on/at will abilities into account. It assumes the spell uses the element targeting the monster's lowest Energy Resistance. The mage progressions are shown in the spreadsheet. No special feats are used for either build- I assume they would cancel out. E.g. giving the evoker Spell Penetration and GSP is canceled out by giving the orb slinger Weapon Focus and Imp. Critical.
The summary data is as follows. Data from each level is the average for all the monsters at that CR targeted by a wizard of that level:
Code:
Level Size SR Ref Fort touch AC %Chance for Orb hit % Chance to beat SR % Chance for full evoc.damage Average Orb Damage Average Evocation Damage [B]ratio[/B] % Chance for Orb effect Level
7 2.2 2.14 7.14 8.77 10.33 0.75 0.92 0.50 18.79 16.57 [B]1.13[/B] 0.30 7
8 2.2 1.73 7.63 9.41 10.5 0.81 0.96 0.47 23.12 19.29 [B]1.20[/B] 0.30 8
9 2.5 4.12 9.53 12.43 10.13 0.85 0.89 0.43 27.19 19.47 [B]1.40[/B] 0.24 9
10 2.5 5.5 8.0 11.4 8.9 0.93 0.81 0.50 33.14 20.79 [B]1.59[/B] 0.30 10
11 2.5 6 10.6 13.2 11.0 0.83 0.85 0.40 48.81 33.24 [B]1.47[/B] 0.21 11
12 2.8 11.6 9.3 15.0 7.6 0.94 0.74 0.48 61.31 35.01 [B]1.75[/B] 0.21 12
13 2.4 15.4 10.0 14.0 10.0 0.92 0.68 0.45 73.11 36.35 [B]2.01[/B] 0.23 13
14 2.2 21.3 11.7 15.4 10.4 0.92 0.60 0.39 78.33 33.13 [B]2.36[/B] 0.19 14
15 2.6 18.7 11.0 15.3 8.9 0.95 0.75 0.45 103.1 57.1 [B]1.81[/B] 0.22 15
16 2.6 25.1 13 16.5 9.5 0.94 0.54 0.39 98.7 35.8 [B]2.76[/B] 0.20 16As you can see, orbs start out fairly balanced with evocations. They do more damage, and have a non-negligible chance for a secondary effect but it’s not egregious for the first few levels. After level 10 or so the ratio takes off and becomes pretty big. Almost all monsters at high CR are large or huge, so managing to fit 3 of them in a AoE is not trivial. Above level 13, orbs are really very very good.
The ratio rises from 1.1 to 2.8 because:
-Touch ACs suck at every level. Therefore, a non-tricked out orb slinger has 90% average chances to hit above level 12- ranged touch attacks become more effective while the evoker's ability to get through the targets' Reflex save and (especially) SR goes down.
-SR is a big factor at high levels. It isn't very common until level 12 or so. But it is really really important after level 13. For the evoker, % to get through SR starts at above 90%, drops way down.
Because orbs seem to be a problem only in the double digit levels, I'm thinking a solution is to allow them, but give them a 10d6 damage cap- that would change nothing until level 11. The ratio would then remain at about 1.5 or so at higher levels.
(As an aside, I never realized how much lower Reflex saves are then Fortitude saves for almost all monsters. They are a few points lower at every CR)
