d20Dwarf said:
I can't believe how overlooked the Mavs have been all season, after virtually dominating the game.
Here's why most are overlooking the Mavs:
Against the Spurs: 1-2
Against the Kings: 1-3
Against the Blazers: 2-2
Against the Wolves: 2-2
Against the Lakers: 1-2
Against the Jazz: 2-1
Against the Suns: 2-1
Against the Rockets: 4-0
So against other playoff teams, they have only "dominated" the Rockets and have beaten the Jazz and the Suns.
In other words, they need to hang on to the #1 seed in order to have an "easy" first-round series against a team they have dominated. If the Spurs pass them, it pushes them into the #3 spot - currently, that would likely put them against the Lakers - whom they haven't shown the ability to beat consistently - or possibly against the Blazers or Wolves (if they slip a bit and the Lakers pass them) - both of which would likely be more favorable matchups for the Mavs, but still would make for a tough series.
In the second round, if they hold the #1 seed, they can look forward to meeting one of the three teams mentioned above as their foe if they slip to #3. Again, the Lakers could well go right through them, and neither Portland nor the Wolves would be a cakewalk.
Of course, if they slip to the #3 seed, even if they win their first-round series, a matchup with the Spurs or the Kings (whoever gets the #2 seed - likely the Kings) - again, teams they haven't shown an ability to beat, much less dominate.
I won't deal too much with the Conference Finals, except to say it will definitely be against a team they can't dominate.
The really interesting question to me is, "where will the Lakers land?" If they can't move up into at least the #5 slot, we have "lopsided" brackets - the #2, #3, and #6 or #7 seed (whichever one is the Lakers) will all be "title contenders" with the #1 seed expected (and rightly so) to make it to the Conference Finals. The contenders on the "lopsided" side of the bracket will likely have to go through one or two other contenders before reaching the Conference Finals... including a first-round matchup of "contenders."
If the Lakers get to the #5 spot, we get a more "even" bracket - where the "contenders" will be expected to win out and meet in the Conference Semis. If that happens, all teams will be "required" to knock out two contenders on their way to the Finals, instead of just 1 (the #1 seed shouldn't meet a contender until the Conf Finals in the 2/3/6 or 7 setup).
I'm probably just babbling here.
FWIW, I'm a Lakers fan, and I want them to win, but I think the Spurs or the Kings could knock them off. Both the Spurs and Kings have gotten mentally tougher. I have to hope that the Lakers can move into at least the #5 and knock out the Blazers or Wolves in round 1... then the Mavericks in round 2 (and I think they can do that) then hope a Spurs-Kings semifinal on the other side goes 7 grueling games and a rested Lakers squad can jump in and mop up the winner or the Spurs-Kings series. I don't honestly see the Lakers getting back to the Finals any other way.
My "bold" playoff predictions:
1.) I agree with Wil - Portland is going to lose their first-round series, regardless of where they wind up seeded. They're imploding (again) and Pippen makes a bigger difference than they know.
2.) Two things must happen for Dallas to make the Conference Finals - first, they must keep the #1 spot and second, the Lakers must be seeded #6 or #7. If Dallas falls out of the #1 or if the Lakers move up to the #4 or #5 spot, Dallas will not make the Conference Finals.
3.) If things stay as they are, the best first-round series to watch will be Utah-Sacramento. If I'm a gambler (and I'm not) I take Utah plus the points in the first game (when the line will be WAY too big - Utah plays Sacramento better than almost anyone).
4.) Unless Kobe or Shaq gets injured, no team will be able to knock out the Lakers on the first try. By this I mean that if a team wins 3 games against the Lakers, they will lose at least one game before winning the 4th. That means that a team that wants to win a series against the Lakers must be ahead after 5 games.
5.) The Finals will not go more than 6 games and the West will win. I'll be *really* surprised if it goes more than 5.
I will wait on making more predictions to see how the seedings actually shake out - too many unknowns right now to bother making too many predictions.
--The Sigil
