vagabundo said:If those crowds are not big enough to allow paizo to eat, then paizo, assuming they want to eat, will change tacks. Projects will be cancelled or, IMO more likely, resources shifted so that dual 3.5e-4e pathfinder will be released.
Paizo will not support this to the death, they have made a decision for the short term (1/2 years is business short term) but the numbers will ultimately decide their direction.
My guess is that they will slowly shift to 4e over the next 1/2 years, they will follow the profits. They have committed themselves to the 3.5e market only if it can sustain them. They are unlikely to put it in their press releases, but I'd be surprised if they do not already have an emergency business plan if the wind on this tack dies.
With my read, they have already done this.
"Paizo hopes to support 4th Edition with fan-created online conversions of its Pathfinder products and a complete line from its partner company, Necromancer Games, a trend-setter in the original Open Gaming movement. Necromancer has already announced a new 4th Edition version of their award-winning Tome of Horrors monster encyclopedia, and has plans for additional player and GM support products."
This seems to set Paizo in the position of hedging their bet.
If 4E is a big success (the most likely result), Pathfinder will continue to support the Grognard niche, and most of their product support will be absorbed by Necromancer.
If 4E fails (unlikely but possible), then Paizo will be uniquely set to land on their feet.