Perhaps no D&D 4th Edition is Being Planned Yet

Charles Dunwoody

Man on the Silver Mountain
I do not own my own RPG business and I do not have a job in marketing. However, I’ve been following Wizards business changes for the last few months (cancel magazines, pull in licenses, go Gleemax, publish coffee table books) trying to figure out what they are up to.

And I have a theory, finally. In two parts.

Part one. Coffee table books. I believe my demographic (thirties, married, kids) which used to be ‘market D&D RPG books to him’ is now being changed to ‘market these coffee table books to him’. The theory being that many of us don’t have to game anyway, so why not just buy nice shiny books with good art that we can look at and talk about the good old days with. What do we need rules for if we aren’t playing, right?

To transition us over, we had a year of lots of modules old school (Ravenloft, Demonweb Pits, Undermountain, heck even Greyhawk). While we might still see another one or two of these released, I think we hit the wall when Dragon and Dungeon were cancelled.

Part two. Star Wars and Gleemax. The first Star Wars RPG supports the land-based mini line. The second supplement supports the ship-based mini line. Then some character sheets. And finally the third supplement supports a huge computer game release.

The new rpg will support mini sales but also tie in with new releases of huge multi-media products like a new computer game. The marketing is actually brilliant, even as I mourn the loss of games based on novels or even movies rather than video games.

I believe that coffee table books, popular fiction (not all game related anymore), and rpgs that support and are supported by sales of minis and computer initiatives are the new wave of the future for Wizards.

And I think Wizards will win big. I can now see how the cutting loose of 30,000 readers of two magazines is a drop in the bucket compared to the number of mini and computer game players they may net.

And I can always buy a coffee table book and think about the good old days.

The question about D&D 4th edition coming soon or being Open Content may not be the biggest question now. I wonder, if Star Wars sales rocket up, if D&D might be allowed to lie fallow for a few years, just like Star Wars. No new edition for a year or two.

Three months ago I would have thought this idea absurd. Today? It actually might make sense, from a profit point of view, to concentrate on D&D minis, support D&D rpg online, and come back with a new edition a year or so later perhaps tied in to a computer or digital release of some kind.

I don’t have a crystal ball (excuse me a brain in a jar that can predict future events) so I’m just speculating. I wouldn’t mind hearing what other gamers think. Maybe I’m way off in my thinking. I’ll be curious to see what comes next.
 

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For being so rulebook light from here on towards (with Elder Evils the only possible "crunch" book) the end of the 1st quarter of 2008, I am starting to believe all the rules and crunch will be on the new DI with the "fluff" and "coffee table" heavy books being released in print.

My only evidence of this is WotC's statement that they'll be taking "the best content in DI and making them into hardcovers."

Maybe our "crunch" will all be on DI from now on with the occasional hardcover coming out for those without access to DI?

All I want to know is what the hell is the deal with the shortage of Forgotten Realms books? We haven't had one since Dragons of Faerun and it's looking really bleak.
 

I will check today at work to see if WotC has a new separate catalog for their mass market (paperback) fiction, since this entire section was omitted from the catalog. This happened before when they removed the Mirrorstone (children's books) section.
 

Right now WotC has full time staff, a bunch of full time staff, that are up to something. And it is not the end of 2007, 2008 releases we know about.

Three scenerios:

1) Most material goes online as part of the digital initiative
2) A new edition is being released
3) Both 1&2

It could certainly just be 1. But it could also just be 2. The online stuff might be replacements for Dungeon and Dragon, some new tools, and that’s it, with no intention of replacing print releases. Or it could do just that.

In any case, at this stage not going for a new edition, or at least a 3.75, just seems like they would be leaving money on the table. If it really is a new edition, then a lot of the work will be done on it, play-testing may have even started…If it is 3.75, we can’t be so sure. I just hope it has new art this time.

We will know in about a month.
 

TerraDave said:
1) Most material goes online as part of the digital initiative

I don't have time to dig it up, but haven't WotC staff specifically stated here more than once that the DI isn't going to replace publishing source books?
 

hexgrid said:
I don't have time to dig it up, but haven't WotC staff specifically stated here more than once that the DI isn't going to replace publishing source books?

Idea: What if they don't have the DI replace paper books but instead compliment them. How can they do this? Members of the DI can download a PDF copy a new book before its official release that is not printable, uncopyable, etc. Granted something like that isn't perfect, but it will hinder pirating. But they'll count on more people signing up for the DI so they can get a hold of the new book early. Wizards has been moving alot of their old stock to PDF (and quickly, may I add). They can still claim full support for paper products all the while encouraging people to sign up for the DI.
 

This sort of theory has one big flaw:

Relatively few kids play tabletop RPG's, and even fewer buy many books. They prefer to spend their money on video games, and they simply don't have the cash to buy up all the supplements WotC is cranking out.

If WotC is targeting the younger crowd (as it seems lately), it will be a huge mistake. RPG's always have been a fairly adult hobby, and WotC has done everything it can lately to alienate the customers that actually buy the bulk of their books.
 

dmccoy1693 said:
Idea: What if they don't have the DI replace paper books but instead compliment them. How can they do this? Members of the DI can download a PDF copy a new book before its official release that is not printable, uncopyable, etc.

They have not yet confirmed whether or not users will actually be able to save DI content to their computers, due to different definitions of "download" ...
 

Obrysii said:
They have not yet confirmed whether or not users will actually be able to save DI content to their computers, due to different definitions of "download" ...

I don't know how they could possibly prevent this, whatever definition you use.
 

Razz said:
All I want to know is what the hell is the deal with the shortage of Forgotten Realms books? We haven't had one since Dragons of Faerun and it's looking really bleak.

Um. Does that mean my copies of Twilight Tomb, Cormyr: The Tearing of the Weave and Shadowdale: The Scouring of the Land aren't Forgotten Realms books, despite the prominent FR logos on the covers?

Those have all come out since Dragons of Faerûn...
 

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