You're conflating personal anecdotal experience and overall trends. Checking into the statistics easily available online, I find that right about 70% of the US population has regular internet access. You're claiming that pretty much every single one of them pirates stuff, and my own anecdotal evidence disproves that as well as yours proves it.
Yeah, I can pretty much assume that the 70% number is instead 70% of the people who have internet access. I live in Canada where the number of people with internet access is above that of the US.
Still, by doing a rough search on the net, I found one site that claims that in the week of February 09-15 1,595,000 downloaded the TV show Heroes. Its TV ratings were 6.92 million during the same period. We don't know how many of the people who downloaded also watched it on TV, but there were a significant number of downloads.
One site has a survey that says 60% of all users of Photoshop have pirated it.
Another site did a survey of Broadband users that found that 30% of all users pirated movies. Only 4 percent said they did it regularly. But there were no questions about music, software, or books, so we only know the figures for movies. But 2/3rds of people said that pirating was not a moral issue, however.
Another poll I looked at says that 70% of the teenagers in Finland said they pirated.
A poll reported by Fox News said that a 61 percent majority of Americans aged 18-34 approves of people downloading music off the Internet. The percentage is a lot lower in anyone older than that. But the poll is a few years old.
Even if it is as low as 30%, that's still 1 in 3 people. Which is pretty significant.
I know my experiences bias me, but my experiences say that it's around 98%. I figured estimating down to 70 was already compensating.
And as others have said, there's a huge difference between people who pirate some stuff and people who pirate everything. If the next generation (or the one after that) grow up in a world in which it is both acceptable and legal to trade any/all media for free, they will not pay for said media. Pure and simple.
There is a huge difference. Right now, no one I know pirates everything, even though they grew up in a society and generation that considers it acceptable and they are capable of getting it for free.
Perhaps the fact that it is legal will change things dramatically. I can't say, since I don't care much if its legal or not. It hasn't affected my downloading habits. I suppose it might for other people. I don't know that anyone can predict the exact effects it'll have. However, I can tell you that the next generation already has a higher percentage of pirates and people who don't respect copyright, even without it being legal. I expect that trend to continue.
I'm not saying that the situation as it stands now can necessarily survive indefinitely. But the answer is far more complex, and far less one-sided, than simply saying "Copyright laws don't work." The entire system would have to change, fundamentally, from the ground up--possibly up to and including a swerve away from market-based capitalism itself--before a truly viable alternative to some form of medium- to long-term copyright becomes possible.
I agree. It's not Copyright laws in general, but the way they work currently. I don't anticipate that a solution will be found in the next 5 or even 10 years. But I think sometime soon, sooner than most people think, this issue will become unavoidable. And whether we want it to change from the ground up or not, it WILL change. I just think people should be ready for it.