Darrin Drader said:
I agree that those criteria help, but you still have to ask yourself if you would be interested in a tabletop RPG if you were a sixteen year old kid, even if you accomplish all of the above. I think you might get a few, but more than likely they're only going to find any amount of love for it if they're introduced to it by someone who already plays.
As for your assessment of 4Es strengths and weaknesses, I agree on all but point 4. The DMG does offer a lot of suggestions for how to resolve issues not specifically covered by the rules. The thing is that with 4E, you're back to actually listening to what the DM has to say rather than trying to overrule him in your attempts to powergame.
The problem with the DMG is its page count. I am guessing its over 200 pages, right?
How many people even read the rule booklets that come with the video games? My kids don't. There is such a high degree of ease and modularity they pop the game it, create the character, and learn as they play.
So a 200+ page book isn't going to help anyone learn anything since most people aren't going to bother to learn a game where they have to read 200+ pages to get just an idea of how to play.
If WOTC, or any RPG, is going to draw in new blood they are going to have to do good "quickstart rules". One that is about 30 pages long, preferably even shorter. One that tells the DM what they do and tells them how to tell the players what they can do.
Crucible of Freya by Necromancer Games was a good attempt at this. This basic concept needs to go a lot further though.
Use these "Quickstart Adventures" to give two hours of " A great game to play with your friends". Use them to get people to try out "role playing" at a table and face to face. Get them to experience the difference between it and a video game. Get them to like it enough they might decide to try and read the 200+ page rulebooks for the "full RPG game experience".
Plus WOTC should not just limit themselves to fantasy. They should make such adventures for a wide variety of genre, and then provide full fledged books for those who decide to become full fledged table top RPG gamers.
Attracting new players to the game can be done, it just needs to be done.
Now I would like to point out something I find humorous. Chris' critiques of the 4E books can be applied to Mutants and Masterminds and True20 in spades. Well, I haven't read True20 Revised yet, so maybe he applied his ideas to that version. Amazon hasn't shipped it to me yet. It takes a month or two for them to ship True20 Revised.