Predict the Future: How will what we have today EVOLVE INTO 5th Edition?

[cangrejoide]

Okay here are my comments regarding this subject.

I find it funny that people who have problems imagining how a warlord can heal with his inspiring word can imagine that Pathfinder will somehow buy D&D of Hasbro.

Here are some news to you, Pathfinder is just a small niche in 3E market. 3E is a niche market within what is called the D&D market. Fractions of fractions. Get over it.

Pathfinder has been a huge success, but only to that particular niche market.

For every pro pathfinder thread I read on the web I read yet another against it. Pathfinder may have a faithful base but it is just a small niche of what the whole D&D market is. Heck I think C&C has a bigger market than Pathfinder.

As 4E matures ( giving it at least 2 or more years) more people will fall back in line to the actual D&D version. IMHO If anything, 4E has brought a lot of new people to the hobby.

So far the DDI has been a small success but gets improved each day. although many people initially were wary about DDI, but week after week they put out top notch articles and quality material and many people have started subscribing ( I know I did).

So far 4E has been a huge success saleswise (far greather than expected for WOTC), if this is not an indication of Market acceptance then I don't know what is.

As for a 5E, I suspect this will be a streamlined version of 4E and minis will be completely included in the products itself ( maybe even have a core pack with each PHB). And it may look a lot more like MTG than it looks now. PDF will be the norm as 'Kindle' like products gain popularity.

The 3pps market is more difficult to predict, I for one have not felt the need to use 3PP since the PHB satisfies all my needs ( unlike 3E which I bought every 3pp out there in hopes to make my game more complete). With a bad economy people may just stick to the Core books and 3pps market may receive the economy impact more harshly. ( this also applies 3E/Pathfinder 3pps)

"The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades."

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Why some people usually refer to 3e comparisons when someone notes his 4e criticisms? Anyway, to answer your question, yes grapple and move and bullrush implementations feel a bit like paranormal but perhaps less so. The whole idea of I go you go and taking turns seems paranormal or super powerish or whatever. OTOH maneuver rolls, risk or threat exposure and opportunity chances are not that hard to implement. But strap off powers in a balanced system that uses them as balance tools is a different matter.

Since I've basically "grown up" (only for my life as a role-player) with D&D 3E, that's my frame of reference. But even Shadowrun is no different once you use actual martial arts rules and just the generic unarmed or melee combat rules.

 

[ashockney]

5th Edition?

I would predect that we'll see D&D in the form of boxed game sets, complete with minis/maps/adventure/new rules/new equipment, with hardback rulebooks to support the "core game system". Powers will correspond directly to a CCG. There will be an online component that will tie in directly to an mmorpg. If they don't figure out how to do this, they're leaving money on the table for the biggest sword and sorcery rpg brand in the business.

 

[knightofround]

I think by the time we get to 5E we'll be moving more towards digitalized D&D. Even if the DDI business model isn't very successful, I think the only way RPGs can keep up with rising competition from video games and book production costs is to supply more material digitally. So rather than having D&D books take up shelf space, I see it being more of a mail-order service, or netflix service. Where I can see the core books still taking up shelf space, but all the supplements, adventures, etc. would either be distributed by .pdf or by mail order. I also see the possibility for traditional D&D products to be distributed alongside videogame expansion-packs, neverwinter nights style.

I still think we're a ways off from making the transition to eBook readers though.