Prediction: 3.5 DMs will *always* find players

[Desdichado]

Who knows. Maybe. One factor is that other d20 games, such as d20 Modern will keep a system not unlike 3.5 (assuming 4e makes enough radical changes to not be strictly compatible) current. I use D&D 3e and 3.5 material all the time in d20 Modern games, d20 Call of Cthulhu games, etc.

That reminds me; assuming 4e really is a significant enough improvement, I might undertake using the Modern SRD and converting the 4e improvements into it.

 

[Xyxox]

For a while. And, in time, they'll drift away to other things, just like the "hell no, I won't switch, I have $45,000 in 2E materials" people did.

Do the math. Think of all the OD&D, AD&D 1E, and AD&D2E grognards out there. Then think of the sheer numbers of 3.x players and add in the SRD and OGL.

3.x players will outnumber the OD&D, 1E, and 2E players combined until the end of time.

In the end, though, it won't amount to a hill of beans as far as hard copy publishers go. PDF publishers will have the market all to themselves.

 

[Glyfair]

That being said, after a few years, I don't think anyone is going to remember how to do things like grapple anymore... but then I don't remember THAC0- so it goes.

I think this is the key. If 4E is going to be as it is presented, I think that going back to either version of 3E will be a headache.

I was considering running a 2E Birthright game, because I decided Birthright doesn't work in 3E. I started the character generation for a couple of players and we universally decided we didn't want to have to (re)learn the rules (actually, I never played 2E, but I did buy the books, read them, and kept active in roleplaying).

One thing to consider, how easy is it for people to find a 3.0 game now? Are they easy to find, or do you have to dig and overturn stones to find 3.0 players?

The differences between 3E and 3.5 are pretty minor compared to any change except maybe between 1st and 2nd AD&D. I know of one group who is still playing 3.0, but they are pretty insular.

The big wildcard will be third party publishers. How many will stick with 3.5 compatible games? Obviously not too many stuck with 3.0 when 3.5 came out. There were a few new systems created (True d20 comes to mind), but 3.0 was abandoned by them.

 

[WayneLigon]

Nah, won't happen. Am I right?

It depends on how successful it is. I'd say that you might have more luck finding 3.0/3.5 players because of the SRD being available in perpetuity than you would of finding 1e/2e players.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

It depends on how successful it is. I'd say that you might have more luck finding 3.0/3.5 players because of the SRD being available in perpetuity than you would of finding 1e/2e players.

That's what I'd tend to think too. There are no "free and legal" versions of 1E and 2E sitting around for download, whereas most of 3.5E is up there (and even a lot of the rules from it's add-on books).

Given how recent it is too, and how many 4E refusniks there are bound to be, I think it'll be a lot easier than finding 1E/2E players. Easy, though? Unlikely. As easy as finding players for say, any given nWoD game? Unlikely. Exalted? Unlikely.

Of course, a lot of this depends on 4E. If they really drop the ball and turn this into MMOD&D replete with absolutely necessary healers (who must be healing four rounds out of five), five-man parties needed, lame abilities that make no sense, ultra-nerfed spell capabilities outside damage, and so on (probably even including some form of "grind"), then sure, 3.5E will do great. It seems unlikely that they're that dim, though, given how smart all the individual designers have been in the past. Otherwise, even if it's kinda sorta lamely MMORPG-ish, but still "cool", then 3.5E will not do particularly wonderfully.

 

[Delta]

The differences between 3E and 3.5 are pretty minor compared to any change except maybe between 1st and 2nd AD&D. I know of one group who is still playing 3.0, but they are pretty insular.

This I disagree with. I think if you look at a full list of 3.0->3.5 changes (particularly hundreds of changes to spells), actually that established a more radical break than 1E->2E (for which they could make a "AD&D Wizard's Spell Compendium" compatible with both games).

I'm personally hopeful (but not confident) that the OP is right; the OGL is the thing that makes this particular switch potentially different.

 

[Psion]

I know some people with enough distaste for aspects of 3.5, they are gonna say "I can't go back."

That said, towards the tail end of 2e, there was bitter, venomous spite against AD&D on the local gaming mailing list and in local groups. I just don't see the same level of jadedness and disdain.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

That said, towards the tail end of 2e, there was bitter, venomous spite against AD&D on the local gaming mailing list and in local groups. I just don't see the same level of jadedness and disdain.

I don't know about that. I think the difference may be localised. Here, on Eric Noah's boards, whilst there was a lot of 1E/2E hate, there was also quite a bit of concern about 3E systems and changes, especially in the six months before release, when we didn't know everything, but we did know enough to guess that certain aspects might end up "less than stellar" (in some cases inaccurately, and other things we've come to loathe were not anticipated).

I do agree that the "I hate 3E D&D" levels here aren't high - but that's unsurprising, these are primarily 3E (or 3.5E or however you call it) oriented boards. Most people who truly dislike D&D don't even post on them - unlike on a local gaming mailing list, or in local groups, where people who don't even play AD&D because they hate it so are likely to comment.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Do the math. Think of all the OD&D, AD&D 1E, and AD&D2E grognards out there. Then think of the sheer numbers of 3.x players and add in the SRD and OGL.

I would like to see the numbers you're basing this off of. I think you're operating with incorrect information.

 

[Aus_Snow]

Am I right?

I think so, yes.

3e (and "Od20") will continue to have huge support. Whether that's also huge publisher support. . . remains to be seen. Still, I'm looking forward to seeing how that goes.