D&D 5E (2014) Prediction: No OGL until at least May if not later

[SigmaOne]

The two things I see that seem (from my novice perspective) to run counter to the original argument are: first, a number of big players are already releasing modules, so will we really see an explosion of *quality* modules beyond what's already happening if major insiders have already started? and second, hasn't WotC indicated they plan to release about two adventures products per year? If so, how is waiting for one to come out going to help at all? It just means the next subcontractor is the one who gets screwed by the OGL (if anyone is to get screwed by the OGL at all).

I have no idea when an OGL will come out, if it will at all. But certainly members of Wizards have recently made noises like we should expect an OGL, which means a lot given how tight-lipped WotC has publicly been so far about product releases.

Anyway, I just hope we here something about something soon, the books are fantastic, but I'm going through article withdrawal. I want articles with cool stuff to look forward to.

 

[Nellisir]

(As I've said many times before...)
I don't think we'll see 5e under THE OGL. It'll be a license midway between the GSL and the OGL, based off of the Basic Rules, but probably expanding monster selection to the MM (but in Basic format, so all flavor text is out). It won't have the problems the GSL did, but it won't be as open as the OGL. You won't be able to use the OGL and the 5e license in the same product. You'll be able to make new stuff, but not a full-on game.

I'm not sure about stuff like the monk or the tiefling. They're not Basic. I could see a lot of people squawking, but leaving them out doesn't really hurt the license utility or functionality. Just write your own fiendling variant.

 

[delericho]

Let me be clearer: it will likely be delayed by the people who hassle the Legal and Brand teams looking for as many pitfalls or reasons to say "no" as possible, and use Legal as the explanation why it's late.

Yeah, that's probably more likely.

The two things I see that seem (from my novice perspective) to run counter to the original argument are: first, a number of big players are already releasing modules, so will we really see an explosion of *quality* modules beyond what's already happening if major insiders have already started?

I don't know about "explosion", but there will certainly be some. Morrus, for one, has noted a reluctance to release without formal sanction from WotC (because although it's certainly possible to do so under the OGL, it does mean burning at least some goodwill, which is a big deal to some).

and second, hasn't WotC indicated they plan to release about two adventures products per year? If so, how is waiting for one to come out going to help at all? It just means the next subcontractor is the one who gets screwed by the OGL

Actually, we don't know if there even will be a "next subcontractor". It's entirely possible that WotC's D&D-RPG team are now busy on "Story #3" - they could have subcontracted out the first two due to pressures of time, but are now ready to bring the rest in-house.

 

[Morrus]

(As I've said many times before...)
I don't think we'll see 5e under THE OGL. It'll be a license midway between the GSL and the OGL,

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure most everybody agrees with you. That's why we usually say "an OGL" not "the OGL" unless we slip up.

 

[Cybit]

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure most everybody agrees with you. That's why we usually say "an OGL" not "the OGL" unless we slip up.

Also worth noting that Mearls just got back from Paternity leave; so they might be in more of a catch-up mode for a bit before they turn their attention to the OGL. I'm 99% sure that the OGL will come to fruition in some way, shape, or form.

 

[Nellisir]

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure most everybody agrees with you. That's why we usually say "an OGL" not "the OGL" unless we slip up.

Worth noting because incompatibility between the two licenses helps prevent an end run around a truncated SRD, in whatever form that takes.

 

[Mark CMG]

I think they've missed the boat at this point for the OGL to have any significant impact on WotC sales or market growth. It's like the joke about the guy on his roof waiting for God to save him from a flood and God explaining he sent a weather report, and an evacuation warning, and a rescue team.

When WotC saw what happened during the 4E / PF market split, they should have OGLed the Essentials. When they watched what happened with the remaining time on 4E, they should have announced the return of the OGL during the playtest and allowed for some OGC solutions to playtesting problems. When they saw the continued growth of the PF player network and how entrenched Paizo now is, they should have had the OGL third party roll out alongside the 5E roll out.

No matter if they announce the OGL today, tomorrow, or never for 5E, WotC won't see much help from such an initiative. It would put a few coins in the coffers of small 3PPS and maybe a couple bigger ones, but whoever it is inside WotC who doesn't want the OGL to ever happen has effectively made sure that any use of the OGL with 5E won't result in numbers that anyone inside WotC who wanted the OGL could point to as proof of its value. The folks inside who are against the OGL have simply delayed it this long to ensure they won't lose the battle and, in the process, made sure no one else could really win.

 

[Dausuul]

No matter if they announce the OGL today, tomorrow, or never for 5E, WotC won't see much help from such an initiative. It would put a few coins in the coffers of small 3PPS and maybe a couple bigger ones, but whoever it is inside WotC who doesn't want the OGL to ever happen has effectively made sure that any use of the OGL with 5E won't result in numbers that anyone inside WotC who wanted the OGL could point to as proof of its value. The folks inside who are against the OGL have simply delayed it this long to ensure they won't lose the battle and, in the process, made sure no one else could really win.

I disagree, and the main reason I disagree is e-tools. Since the implosion of Dungeonscape, every company making digital tools for tabletop RPGs has been champing at the bit to get a piece of the blossoming 5E market. Right now, Wizards has nothing in this space, not even a crappy online character builder. Nor did they have anything in the works during 5E's development. They wouldn't have licensed Trapdoor to make Dungeonscape if they were planning to build their own. (Given how much outsourcing they've been doing, I doubt they had the money. They probably jumped at Trapdoor's offer to pay its own way during the development phase.)

Now, it's conceivable that the breakout success of 5E might have loosened the purse strings at Hasbro, enough to let Wizards build their own tools after all. But they couldn't have started development before mid-fall 2014 at the absolute earliest, and it takes time to write software and test it. Do they really want to wait until late 2015 to put out a digital offering for 5E? Especially given their terrible track record with e-tools in past editions?

A 5E OGL, or a GSL with sufficiently generous terms, would solve all this at a stroke. Lone Wolf is all set to go live with Hero Lab for 5E, they just need the word. If that isn't enough, there are lots of other folks eager to take a crack. Trapdoor is still hoping to publish Dungeonscape (now under the name of Codename: Morningstar). Player Minion/DM Minion, Fight Club... the list goes on. Instead of trying to beat its "digital curse," Wizards can just sit back while they all fight it out. Let the best software win.

That doesn't mean they're certain to go OGL. But there's tremendous potential benefit for Wizards in doing so.

 

[Mark CMG]

Trapdoor is still hoping to publish Dungeonscape (now under the name of Codename: Morningstar).

Show me the money . . .

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/trapdoortech/codename-morningstar

 

[Dausuul]

Show me the money . . .

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/trapdoortech/codename-morningstar

The Kickstarter was to port CN:MS over to Pathfinder. According to Trapdoor, they are basically ready to go with the 5E D&D version for iOS.

Now, I take that claim with a grain of salt, since we still don't know why WotC cut ties with them. Nevertheless, they are one of the potential competitors to produce 5E digital tools, and they've gotten good reviews from people who've seen the iOS product in action. (The web and Android versions were disasters, but iOS is supposedly pretty solid.)