D&D 5E predictions for D&D in 2015

[guachi]

I predict that, aside from possibly the DM screen, WOTC won't come out with anything I want to purchase. And I doubt I'll want any of the officially licensed items either. I'm certainly not interested in the slightest in the Elemental Evil story line. I didn't purchase the 1e module when I had a chance. I didn't purchase the 3e version when I had a chance. I don't expect to buy the 5e version when I have a chance.

I won't purchase a FR source book or boxed set as its my least favorite setting by far and I'd be too confused by all the changes since the beginning.

I've purchased some licensed products already, namely the spell cards. I quite like them especially to pass around to players at my table. Most of them don't have the money to get them or they are brand new to D&D and the cards are a nice thing to hand to new players and they can more easily see their spells.

 

[tuxgeo]

Are "Aasimar" and "Eladrin" the new "Rogue/Rouge"???

Just as 4E proved that Eladrin had no place in the Planes, 5E will do the same, but with anagrams:

Look for both "Darline" and "Marisaa" to show up -- "because anagrams".

 

[delericho]

DEFINITE: OGL (Mearls said);

Nah. File the OGL under "believe it when you see it". I don't doubt that Mearls wants, and fully intends, to deliver an OGL, but any licensing will have to go through Legal which means it's open to big delays (as they're unlikely to rush to 'give' people a free license), or even outright cancellation. I do hope you're right, but IMO it's pretty far from "definite".

DEFINITE: Elemental Evil story arc (announced months ago)


PROBABLE: a third story arc in the Fall (they've variously said "one or two a year")
POSSIBLE: Forgotten Realms book or box (I'd say probable because they really *should* release this, but you never know); online Dragon and/or Dungeon (who knows - I think we'll see something, but maybe not what we've had in the past); some minor Winter release to tide things over between the Fall and Spring releases
UNLIKELY: Anything "2" (PHB, etc - just too soon based upon their stated release strategy); Manual of the Planes (too soon); a new or different setting other than the FR (will need to do FR first).

This all seems about right.

I maintain that we're going to see a continuation of the following release schedule:

Spring: story arc (two books)
Summer (GenCon): major release (campaign book, big splat)
Fall: story arc (two books or box)
Winter: minor release (e.g. DM's screen, a supplement of some kind)

This also seems right. The one caveat I would offer to this is that because 5e has almost certainly well exceeded their expectations, WotC may take this opportunity to expand the department again and thus beef up the release schedule. It would take some time for the effects of this to be felt, but come 2016 we might see a slight increase to what you are describing here.

Oh, one other thing: you've missed out things like the miniatures releases and other 'bits' from Gale Force 9, and any other partners they have. (I might argue that those don't 'count', but you have included the DM's screen, which suggests that they do. )

 

[Mercurius]

Nah. File the OGL under "believe it when you see it". I don't doubt that Mearls wants, and fully intends, to deliver an OGL, but any licensing will have to go through Legal which means it's open to big delays (as they're unlikely to rush to 'give' people a free license), or even outright cancellation. I do hope you're right, but IMO it's pretty far from "definite".

I hear what you are saying, but he only ever said "2015," I believe - not "early 2015." That's a long time. Can you imagine the fallout if the OGL wasn't released in 2015? Not only fans but other publishers - it would be such a nasty PR situation, at the very least, which I'm sure WotC wants to avoid at all costs. I imagine that 2015 is "definite" (i.e. 99%) and the first half of 2015 is "probable."

This also seems right. The one caveat I would offer to this is that because 5e has almost certainly well exceeded their expectations, WotC may take this opportunity to expand the department again and thus beef up the release schedule. It would take some time for the effects of this to be felt, but come 2016 we might see a slight increase to what you are describing here.

Yes, I agree (or hope!). I don't want to see a 2/3/4E-style glut, but I'd like to see a bit more than what seems to be planned. For me the sweetspot would be as they have planned and I wrote down, plus several one-shot adventures, more setting support, a mega-box set of some kind, and a couple Pathfinder-style hardcovers a year. Still moderate compared to 2E-to-4E.

Oh, one other thing: you've missed out things like the miniatures releases and other 'bits' from Gale Force 9, and any other partners they have. (I might argue that those don't 'count', but you have included the DM's screen, which suggests that they do. )

Yeah, I just don't consider miniatures as "primary" releases (that is, books).

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Are "Aasimar" and "Eladrin" the new "Rogue/Rouge"???

Now I want to play a PC called Kymkard, Assimar Rouge.

 

[Mistwell]

I hear what you are saying, but he only ever said "2015," I believe - not "early 2015."

Here is the exact quote from late March 2014,

"When it comes to the mechanism by which we want to empower D&D fans to create their own material and make their mark on the many, exciting worlds of D&D, we're taking the same approach. While we are not ready to announce anything at this time, I do want to share with you some of our goals. While the details are still in flux, we can say that we plan to announce the details of our plans sometime this fall. After that announcement, we plan on launching our program in early 2015."

So, that's about fan-made stuff only, and he phrase it as their GOALS, and said the details are in flux, and it's just a plan.

Then on Reddit, about a month ago, he said, "No news yet, but we do plan to announce something within the next couple of months or so....we're working on plans right now to allow people to use the D&D system to create their own stuff."

Finally through GamerHole's Twitter, we got this from Chris Perkins in early November 2014:

"It is our intention to bring back the OGL. We just don't know when we are going to do it yet."

 

[Mercurius]

OK, so he did say "early 2015" - but what, exactly?

Then on Reddit, about a month ago, he said, "No news yet, but we do plan to announce something within the next couple of months or so....we're working on plans right now to allow people to use the D&D system to create their own stuff."

Huh?! I don't get this at all - we are already "allowed" to use the D&D system to create our own stuff! What the OGL allowed is for people to use the D&D system in saleable product. That's the whole point, right? I can start a blog called "Optional Rules for D&D 5E" and as long as I'm not charging for them, there's nothing that WotC could do to stop me from doing it. But the OGL allows me to charge for it.

Maybe he's just wording it poorly, I don't know.

 

[delericho]

I hear what you are saying, but he only ever said "2015," I believe - not "early 2015." That's a long time. Can you imagine the fallout if the OGL wasn't released in 2015?

I really want to believe, but...

Yes, I agree (or hope!). I don't want to see a 2/3/4E-style glut, but I'd like to see a bit more than what seems to be planned. For me the sweetspot would be as they have planned and I wrote down, plus several one-shot adventures, more setting support, a mega-box set of some kind, and a couple Pathfinder-style hardcovers a year. Still moderate compared to 2E-to-4E.

Yeah, that all sounds really good.

Huh?! I don't get this at all - we are already "allowed" to use the D&D system to create our own stuff!

Create, yes. Sharing is much less clear.

I can start a blog called "Optional Rules for D&D 5E" and as long as I'm not charging for them, there's nothing that WotC could do to stop me from doing it.

This is true if (and only if) you are sure not to use any of their copyright material in your blog. Otherwise, they could come after you if they were so inclined. (Of course, none of us, including WotC, really want a return to the dark days of T$R, but that's another matter.)

And of course very few of us are so scrupulous that we could be absolutely sure of being safe - and do you really want to test it? (Also, technically, copyright infringement doesn't require that something be for sale for it to be an issue.)

So a formal license (or policy, or whatever they want to call it) for fan use is still useful, even if only to protect the risk-averse among us.