Predictions of the d20/gaming industry part 2

[Piratecat]

Continued from this thread!

http://www.enworld.org/messageboards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=9766

 

[Umbran]

Folks, an example of massively multiplayer (non-online) RPG already exists - Some forms of LARP fit this description quite nicely. Go talk to the people at Whilte Wolf if you want ot learn how hard it is to do well...

 

[Piratecat]

I must admit, I was surprised - and slightly concerned - when I learned that Organized Play was buying Living City. Not concerned for LC, though; concerned for Organized Play. Not one of the hardcore, gung ho LC players that I've known for years really enjoys it anymore. They all seem to prefer playing Living Greyhawk. LC seems to have the reputation of being the game for power-gaming rules abusers who'd rather hack than roleplay. Whether that's true or not, I'd be surprised if the number of LC adherents is growing.

Ryan, any comment, and can you offer your expectation of Organized Play's role in the industry?

 

[Ulrick]

Thanks for continuing the thread, Piratecat. I had no clue when I started it that it would become so big.

Ulrick

 

[Ulrick]

I spilled Mello Yellow on my PHB

About 10 min ago I spilled a large puddle of Mello Yello on the cover of my PHB. Since there's been discussion about the quality of material the books are made of, I'll interject this:

1. I screamed "Ahhh!" when it happened!
2.The cover protected the inside! Only a drop got inside an soaked into the 1st couple pages.
3. I cleaned off the cover using a slightly damp cloth. Looks as good as new.
4. No sticky residue is felt.

I have to say I'm glad they make the core books as they do now. Although they cost a bit more. I still have a 1st ed. PHB. I can only imagine in horror the amount of damage pop could do to it even if it was spilled on the cover.

Whew....


Ulrick

 

[MythandLore]

Re: I spilled Mello Yellow on my PHB

2.The cover protected the inside! Only a drop got inside an soaked into the 1st couple pages.

Just a quick remark on this.
I got to say the covers for 3rd edition are amazing, so much stronger then the old ones, they’re great.
I use 'Windex' to make all my new dnd books squeaky clean after each game, so awesome, now that's quality.
Glass cleaner like ‘Windex ‘ does a great job of cleaning of oily/greasy fingerprints that can get on the covers (most of all when there is food around) without damaging the books.

 

[RyanD]

Ryan, any comment, and can you offer your expectation of Organized Play's role in the industry?

There are just over 1,600 registered (i.e., paying) Living City players as of this date. We continue to generate about 10 a day. In 2000 (the best year we have data for), there were about 6,000 different people who played at least once in the year. So that's my short term goal; get 6,000 people signed up by the end of the year.

The fact that we've got those 1,600 people is astonishing. They are not paying for products (scenarios are free to download). They are not paying for a collectable (the scenarios are PDF files and can be freely distributed). They are paying simply for the privilege of playing; in other words, they're willing to believe that by giving us (about) a dollar every time the play, they can get an experience that is at least worth that price on average. That's a breakthrough of immense proportions.

The interesting thing I've found in operating the business of a "Living" campaign is that the biggest constraint is Judges (DMs in LC speak). There just aren't enough of them. About 100 people judge 80% of all LC scenarios run annually; that's just way too few people Judging for the number of active players. If we can't solve the Judge problem, a MMTRPG ("T" for Tabletop) probably can't work. Ideally, I'd like to see a ratio of about 20% active Judges.

The objective of OP as a company is to deliver a system for game publishers that will let them support their player networks the way WotC supports its own. That means effective fan clubs, event scheduling and scoring, and ratings and feedback. Its a tremendous challenge. One of the things most consumers don't understand is how bloody expensive it is for a pubilsher to run an effective support program. The only way to make it work in hobby gaming is for the players themselves to shoulder the costs; either in the form of memberships or via micropayments links to activities. The publishers just don't have the money to pay out of pocket for the kind of support systems required. (Other than WotC, Games Workshop, Decipher, and possibly White Wolf).

Living City is our "test tube"; it's a controlled experiment that we can use to demonstrate the capabilities OP is developing, and show off our technology while generating revenue to offset our operating costs.

The idea of a self-supporting MMTRPG really excites me, because it blows up the whole RPG business model. If we could evolve a community of players who were willing to pay $5 a month to play their favorite RPG, we will have a whole new kind of game - one with the kind of revenue necessary to support a lot of high-end features that traditional paper-based product publishing just can't manage. As the lifetime value of a customer goes up, the business that customer supports becomes a lot bigger and more capable. There's a lot of talk on the 'net about PDF publishing, and I think it's somewhat ironic that the long term success of the PDF model for content distribution may be completely decoupled from the revenue side of the business.

I think that so few people have played either LC or LG that the canvas is still mostly blank. We recognize that most people who have tried the campaigns have probably quit due to a number of factors related to the experience and the environment. What we hope is that we can correct those problems and present players in the future with a much better experience. We're learning a tremendous amount about how to operate a MMTRPG using Living City as a basis, but I have my doubts about whether either existing "Living" campaign could be stretched to accomodate several hundred thousand active monthly players. We're still just in the very beginning of this concept (even though Living City has been active for almost 10 years). It was ignored by so long by TSR and then by WotC (to say nothing of the rest of the industry), and only in the past three or four years has the idea of a "Living" campaign been recognized for the potential value that it really possesses.

The challenge for OP is to make enough money to cover our operating expenses while we build out our systems. Right now, we're starting the race a long way behind what WotC has today in terms of technology and know-how. I believe that we'll slowly catch up over the course of this year, and by 2003, we'll be able to deliver a feature-for-feature match for just about anything they can bring to the table. Getting from here to there is going to be incredibly hard, but if we make it, we'll have changed the industry from the ground up.

I can envision a time when the RPG business consists of three kinds of publisher:

1) Core book publishers, who make most of their money selling basic games to an acquisition-driven audience.

2) Supplement publishers, who make most of their money by selling products to the market created by the Type 1 publshers, mostly by selectively targeting niches within the larger market.

3) Service-based companies who support the market created by Type 1 and 2 companies, mostly by supporting "Living" type campaigns either as stand-alone businesses or coupled tightly to a product line managed by a Type 1 or 2 company.

To cycle all the way 'round to the beginning - the challenge in reaching that kind of a future involves Judges. Without people willing to run games, the whole market suffers. No publisher has ever mounted a successful campaign to recruit, train, and develop GMs, and that's what's needed for a service-based sector to emerge. Only time will tell if it can be done.

 

[maddman75]

Ryan,

This is facsintaing, I've never really contemplated the business side of the Living Campaigns before. If it takes off, you'd have an incredibly stable business model - small monthly payments add up quickly - just ask AOL.

I looked into it when I first got into 3e, but didn't join up. Why not? Because I live in the sticks, it would take me a couple of hours just to get to a con. I've never been to one before.

I'm of the opinion that the more rural areas are ripe for the picking. There a LOT of roleplayers around here given the population. There just isn't all that much else to do .

One thing that would have gotten me to join would have been some way to find other gamers - it seems like a perfectly natural application of the data you have, just needs implemented.

Also, maybe some info on running your home game in OP. I seem to recall reading a blurb that said - 'you can even run your home game as LGH' but saw nothing on how to actually do this, if it would cost anything, etc. It sounds neat, especially if we road triped to a con - our characters would be getting 'out to the city' as well. Might be a good way to drum up more DMs too - after all, its not like he's going to have a character.

Just some random thoughts, late at night

 

[Darklance]

Re: Re: I spilled Mello Yellow on my PHB

Just a quick remark on this.
I got to say the covers for 3rd edition are amazing, so much stronger then the old ones, they’re great.
I use 'Windex' to make all my new dnd books squeaky clean after each game, so awesome, now that's quality.
Glass cleaner like ‘Windex ‘ does a great job of cleaning of oily/greasy fingerprints that can get on the covers (most of all when there is food around) without damaging the books.

Just the hardcovers or the softcovers also?

 

[Piratecat]

That is fascinating. The concept of a service-driven provider was not one that had occurred to me, and I'll be excited to see if it can be carried off.

It's interesting to note that as far as I know, Living City's judge shortage may not be quite as significant a problem for future MMTRPG campaign settings. I know easily twenty or thirty competent RPGA judges who will judge anything but LC due to unpleasant past experiences. I'm one of them, so I'm probably prejudiced, but LC carries a stigma for me that other settings won't. I'm certainly not alone. As a result, it worries me slightly that Organized Play's success will be predicated on making the business model work in a campaign setting that is loaded with bad emotional connotations for a lot of people.

I'm looking forward to seeing judge training in action. I am currently breaking in a number of new players to the hobby, but getting them to take a stab at judging is hard.

- Kevin Kulp