Print Run numbers


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Extrapolating from a conversation I just with the head of a very large distributo (about d20 product sales):

adventure: 3000 MAX
hard cover supplement: 5000-8000
soft-cover supplement: 3000-6000

Contrast these numbers with last year's:

adventure: 10000 MAX
hard cover supplement: 5000-12000
soft-cover supplement: 3000-8000

These don't include "D&D" numbers. Just d20 guesses based on a chink of the 3-tier distribution system.

According to him, d20 is hurting in a big way.
 

It's relative. The size of the pie hasn't changed, but the number of publishers who want pieces of it has. Thus, the pieces keep getting smaller and smaller. Scarred Lands sold extremely well early on since it was about the only thing D20-wise on the market next to the WoTC stuff and a few small adventures. If Scarred Lands came on the market TODAY, it would be more or less insignificant.
 


Hard8Staff said:
According to him, d20 is hurting in a big way.
Mind you, "hurting" is a matter of perspective. The numbers that D20 generates at Atlas Games, while down very sharply from the early months of the phenomenon, are still better than other RPG lines. For example, THE ASCENSION OF THE MAGDALENE, our not quite a week old new book that is dual-statted for Unknown Armies and D20 both, has on initial release sold substantially more than the last two UA supplements (both of which were at least twice as thick) have to date in their 6-12 month histories.

If someone had structured their business (fixed/overhead expenses, in particular) on the basis of the sales figures of the 1st quarter of 2001, well, they could be hurting. On the other hand, if you adjust your business to changing circumstances (reducing print runs appropriately, for example -- my view is that adventures should be printed to sell out in 3-6 months tops, for example), and didn't set your expenses too high in the first place, there's still a very good market here.

-John Nephew
President, Atlas Games
 

I agree with the, ever wise, (sincerely)John Nephew completely. We started relatively small (3000 or so units) and were just kicking off. We are not hurting at all becuase we actually are growing so that we are in the ranges of what Hard8 demonstrated.
Our biz model for modules is exactly what John said. Make enough to be out of them in six month and be done with it.

Larger guys were able to do 10-30k print runs last year and could not even touch that this year. So, as stated, hurting is a matter of perscpective. Still, d20 products are selling just fine if you are modest in your approach and still do better than many non-d20 RPGs in terms of sales.

Starting new though, ouch, if I tried to start now and did the math I would throw in the towel before launch. The numbers aren't in the cards for a new d20 publisher to launch now. It would be a precarious and rocky road at best. This is regardless of how good the material is. How many more publishers of d20 need to be around when there is plenty "right now"!
Now, I say that, but I just saw a brand new company with a brand new module at my game store. So, it is not impossible to get launched but ya better be ready for a slow start and longer period before collecting.
 

Increasing the pie's size

I've always been curious about the current print runs myself.
One thing to consider on top of everything else is that in November there were 2 brand new gaming consoles released, the Xbox and the Gamecube. Things like that compete heavily for gaming dollars as RPG players, for the most part, are also video game players. 50 bucks a pop can kill a gamer's budget rapidly.

I think I would be more concerned about trying to launch a new RPG game system than another D20 supplement. I think with the right marketing direction and implementation new D20 books can still sell well.

It seems to me that the gaming market is suffering from a similar ailment that the comic market suffers from: How to bring in new players. Instead of trying to cut the pie with smaller and smaller pieces it would be better to increase the pie's size. To do that though is going to take advertising and demos. Of course the biggest problem is cost and direction. I would think many of the video game magazines out there would help call attention to RPGs with ads in them. It's not as "preaching to the choir" as much as putting an ad in Dragon but it still finds an audience that is open to gaming. Of course I'm sure the cost for ads isn't cheap. :/

What I'd really like to see is a packaged demo that runs anywhere from an hour or two that can be easily set up and played. Something an employee can do without killing a lot of time for them and the customer. Think along the lines of how demos go at Gencon.

I would love to sit down with more publishers and work on ideas. Is this something you all would be interested in doing?

~Derek
 

I agree with both John and Mystic.

Talon, increasing the pie is the domain of the overlord: WOTC. Us little fishies just scour the bottom for crumbs.

Dave
 

increasing the pie is the domain of the overlord

Sounds like a cool gaming idea or should I say Kewl? The Overlord expanding the empire, brave knights and occassionally knaves answering the call to defend the downtrodden while the Legions are away. We need some romance, villiany, and perhaps a little treachery to put this epic to bed. :)
 


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