Probability help?

[Crosswind]

Apologies for not answering the original question you wanted, but your definition of the "strength" of a role is sort of weak. Averaging the numbers? Why not take a look at the point-buy that would be required to get it.

Assume that we pick a 4e-esque point buy (Not quite 4E, because you can get values under 8. To approximate 4E, subtract 10 from my total score) of:

Ability Value: 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Points Used: -5, -4, -3, -2,-1,0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 18

Then, using 4d6 drop the lowest, you get:

Number of Rolls/Points

1 / 30.7906
2 / 36.5316
3 / 39.5584
4 / 41.5412
5 / 43.0381
6 / 44.1703
7 / 45.1444
8 / 45.9589
9 / 46.6935
10 / 47.3022

For 3d6:

1 / 17.0753
2 / 22.1259
3 / 24.7949
4 / 26.5737
5 / 27.9276
6 / 28.9603
7 / 29.7959
8 / 30.5534
9 / 31.2452
10 / 31.8066

So, that's the effect.

Incidentally, if you wanted, oh, you know, the actual numbers that you asked for (Nonsense!), they are:

For 4d6:

1 / 12.2870
2 / 12.9476
3 / 13.2518
4 / 13.4498
5 / 13.5955
6 / 13.7189
7 / 13.8322
8 / 13.8508
9 / 13.9640
10 / 13.9832

For 3d6:

1 / 10.5013
2 / 11.1794
3 / 11.4900
4 / 11.7289
5 / 11.8769
6 / 12.0020
7 / 12.1244
8 / 12.1613
9 / 12.2838
10 / 12.3283

That what you're looking for?

-Cross

 

[Jeff Wilder]

Crosswind -- Thanks. That's exactly what I was looking for, and yes, laying it out by point-build cost was helpful. (Nice to know I was right about 4d6-drop being too powerful.)

Umbran -- Setting a range is a great suggestion, and I think that's what we'll end up doing. 4d6-drop, must get between +5 and +7 (inclusive, of course). Then you can make one swap of two abilities. We've tested it out here, and we're liking it pretty well.