PS3 600 dollars? Sony is on crack

[Vigilance]

Well, since I'm not sure I've made a prediction yet, I'll make some then

I think the PS3 will sell out really fast, all 400,000 copies will be gone. It will get a lot of free publicity from the lines, the scarcity and the exorbitant prices on e-bay.

Meanwhile, Nintendo seems much more focused on getting the Wii to people. They're launching worldwide with 4,000,000 units, the majority of which will be here. Not sure what that means exactly. 2-3 million?

I think these will also move pretty quick, especially with the modest price and a launch on Nov 19, when the shopping season is heating up.

I think the reliance on known technology will make the production problems that plagued the X-box 360, and seem to be plaguing the PS3 not as much of a problem.

So I think Nintendo will move more units than the PS3 and 360 combined as they keep filling store shelves and as people who come LOOKING for a high end console (and cant find one) see Wiis on the shelves.

I really think both the PS3 and 360 would benefit from a single configuration. Even when people DO find the 360, it's often the "core" model when they're looking for the high end model (I imagine the reverse is sometimes true as well).

This isnt to say that the PS3 or 360 will fail. I just think Nintendo will move more units because they have a more mass market product.

Chuck

 

[trancejeremy]

IMHO, when it came to the 360, the 2 packages was a bad deal for the consumer's point of view, but was brilliant in terms of marketing. It lets MS say that the 360 is only $300, even though with the $300 model, you can't save games - you need a $50 memory card for that. There is just no reason to buy the cheap version.

Conversely, for Sony, the two models are decent for the consumer, but from a PR point of view, it was stupid. Even though the $500 PS3 is the equivalent of the $400 360 (plus the Blu Ray drive), people compare the cheap model of the 360 to the expensive PS3.

So the perception is that Sony is trying to rip people off, even though the $600 PS3 is a better value than the 360. To get equivalent 360 stuff, you'd need the $400 version, plus the $200 HD add-on, plus $100 for Wifi. Plus more $ for a bigger hard drive (whenver that comes out). Plus $ for Xbox Live. Plus $150 for a media version of Windows XP ($250 for Vista Ultimate?) to connect your PC to the 360.

Anyway, I think the 360 will probably come close to even with the PS3 in the US. But in Japan, it will do about as well as the original Xbox (which is not very good). And probably a little better in Europe than the original Xbox.


The Wii is something of a wild card. Rather than having good graphics, it relies mostly a gimmicky controller. That worked wonderfully for them with the DS, but flopped with the virtual boy. The Wii is more like the DS than VB, so it seems to have an edge there, but it's not nearly as casual as the DS (you'll need a lot of room to play games), and the casual gamer has really driven DS sales.

I really don't think people who want a PS3 or even 360 will buy a Wii. I think the Wii will mostly be for Nintendo fans. However, Nintendo does seem to be much better gameplan wise for the Wii than they were for the Gamecube.

 

[reanjr]

I have to agree Wii is going to outsell both competitors this holiday season, probably staying near sold-out throughout the season. That will also give it alot of mindshare during Q1 2k7, and continue to boost its sales. They will probably be able to maintain fairly steady sales throughout 2k7 as gamers who already bought a PS3 and/or 360 get enough money to purchase another system. They will see sales boosts twice in 2k7 around the release dates of Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3.

Sony is launching with so few units that MS won't even bother worrying about them until Q1-2 2k7 (Sony will likely still be shorthanded through Q1 due to the imminent worldwide release). At that point, they will drop the price of the 360, not only undercutting some of Sony's market, but giving a significant boost to their sales throughout the year.

Sometime in Q2-3 2k7, Sony will manage to drop the price. Not significantly, but enough to be noticed and soon after units start being readily available. Their sales will start taking off a bit after this, but won't match MS anytime during 2k7.

Post 2k7 is a bit harder to guess at, but one of two things will happen on the PS3 front. Scenario 1 is that Sony-exclusive software publishers are going to accept low sales (compared to what they are used to) for the next year as PS3 ownership takes time to ramp up. This will leave them a bit cash-dry for a while and will hurt Sony's overall exclusive library. This will keep Sony fairly neck-and-neck with MS throughout the next few years, with one (likely Sony) pulling ahead near end-of-life. The second scenario is that Sony's exclusive publishers will abandon that model and drive MS into a stable (but not overbearing) first place.

Sony's strategy of poorly duplicating Nintendo's motion sensitivity may pan out well for them or might be very bad. On the one hand, they are trying to ride Nintendo's coattails by getting publishers who would have made Wii-exclusive titles also available on PS3 (but more importantly, not 360). This may dumb down the control scheme so that games can work on PS3's inferior controller and hurt Nintendo sales. On the other hand, it may lead to publishers creating games that are significantly more fun to play on the Wii than the PS3, hurting their image a bit. This might cause Nintendo to receive many extra sales over a few years and reinforce the popular idea that it is far more worth it to own a 360/Wii than a PS3 (and only $50 more expensive).

If Sony somehow ramps up production sooner than expected, Blu-Ray might actually be a success, but given their current and (for the near future) estimated production, Blu-Ray will be yet another format failure in a long list of Sony format failures. Perhaps they will learn from that and go back to being an electronics company rather than a format company, but it is doubtful. It is my hope that HD-DVD falters as well, but more likely it will start a slow takeover of the DVD market, getting people to pay, yet again, for the same thing they already own. The upshot is that by the time HD-DVD is dominant in physical media, physical media will barely be dominant, being subsumed by downloaded or streaming content.

Care to comment/disagree?

 

[TwistedBishop]

The Magic 8-Ball says:

Massive Wiilash from current gamers after prolonged play time with the system. The Wii doesn't manage to capture the casual gamer market in any territory but Japan, where it proceeds to become huge.

Sony loses a good chunk of market share worldwide.

Microsoft gains a good chunk of market share outside of Japan.

Come Christmas 2008, the Xbox 360 and the Wii will split the leadership positions, relative to the US/Europe and Asian markets. The PS3 will remain a steady second place in all territories.

 

[SnowRaven]

IMHO, when it came to the 360, the 2 packages was a bad deal for the consumer's point of view, but was brilliant in terms of marketing. It lets MS say that the 360 is only $300, even though with the $300 model, you can't save games - you need a $50 memory card for that. There is just no reason to buy the cheap version.

Simply because it's cheaper really. That's more than enough for plenty of folks. (See my Wii COmments later.)

Conversely, for Sony, the two models are decent for the consumer, but from a PR point of view, it was stupid. Even though the $500 PS3 is the equivalent of the $400 360 (plus the Blu Ray drive), people compare the cheap model of the 360 to the expensive PS3.

I think it works bad either way for Sony. If the best they can say is "it's unfair to compare, we're only $100 more than an equivalent system!" then I think the general market will see it for what it is, a BluRay push that will be lost on most gamers.

So the perception is that Sony is trying to rip people off, even though the $600 PS3 is a better value than the 360.

It's a better value if you add in all those features that mean nothing to the common gamer. If you put a free country western music CD in every D&D book, and charged extra for them, that wouldn't mean people got extra value. They're telling people what they want instead of listening to what they want.

Anyway, I think the 360 will probably come close to even with the PS3 in the US. But in Japan, it will do about as well as the original Xbox (which is not very good). And probably a little better in Europe than the original Xbox.

I think the PS3 will be lagging behind the 360 significantly for a couple years. I think more XBox users will switch to 360, while a lot of PS2ers will simply stick with PS2's.

The Wii is something of a wild card. Rather than having good graphics, it relies mostly a gimmicky controller. That worked wonderfully for them with the DS, but flopped with the virtual boy. The Wii is more like the DS than VB, so it seems to have an edge there, but it's not nearly as casual as the DS (you'll need a lot of room to play games), and the casual gamer has really driven DS sales.

I think the Wii's main focus is on actual gameplay, rather than theoretical processing. The gimick controller is hard to judge, but I think the Wii Campaign will be focused more on gaming vs "multimedia".

I really don't think people who want a PS3 or even 360 will buy a Wii. I think the Wii will mostly be for Nintendo fans. However, Nintendo does seem to be much better gameplan wise for the Wii than they were for the Gamecube.

What I think is missing, is the idea that early adopters that are willing to spend $1000 for the perfect setup will get their system, but I think people are ignoring the holiday season and the kid angle.
Frankly, if parents are buying a gift, or someone else is buying a gift, you're more likely to sell them that Wii than the 360 or PS3. I think parents will prefer the Wii in a lot of ways, games as well as price.

For Sony, I think the PS2 will maintain a lot more inertia than the PS3 will gain. It will be a while before the current users switch over to the PS3 IMO.

I think the PS3 has overstepped and the market will stick with PS2's for a while, until games that really look a lot better come out.

(IOW, you'll see PS2 and Wii duking it out for a while.)

 

[Vigilance]

One of the nice things about the Wii... it's region free (I think that's one reason they removed the DVD capabilities the device at one time was supposed to have). So it actually doesnt matter to the consumer if it only catches on in Japan... developers couldmake games for the Japanese market that could be imported to America as cheaply as, for instance, subtitling a Final Fantasy game.

But still, I think the Wii is going to sell a lot of consoles here as well as Japan... heck... they could sell 3 million easily by Christmas... and since neither MS nor Sony will be ABLE to get that many consoles out... Wii should have market share over everything but the PS2 at least through this year (though there might be more X-boxes out than that, not entirely sure).

Chuck

 

[TwistedBishop]

It turns out the Wii isn't region-free.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=19686

 

[Vigilance]

It turns out the Wii isn't region-free.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=19686

Well, given my prediction that the Wii will be popular, it wasnt a selling point for me. Of course since I have decided to buy on launch, Nintendo doesn't need to sell I suppose

As for the Wii being gimmicky, I really dont think so. Everytime reviewers play the games, they like the controller more. In part because they are realizing you need to flick the wrist lightly, not do a full, tiring sword swing, and in part because the game designers have been refining the controls nicely.

I know at the recent NYC announcement gathering, the gamespot editors were impressed at the growth of the controller interface in Red Steel and Zelda, and I have heard nothing but good things about Madden.

As someone VERY used to playing madden on PS2 though, it wont be one of my first purchases.

 

[drothgery]

Care to comment/disagree?

The only think I'd add to it is the very real possibility that Microsoft will have an overwhelming edge in installed base before Sony gets their production issues sorted out and can start selling PS3s at a semi-resonable (i.e. sub-$300 price) without devastating their bottom line. And that could force a lot of developers' hands (making games multiplatform when they would have been PS3 exclusive, or 360-only when they would have been multiplatform).

 

[John Crichton]

This system launch means next to nothing to me as far as gaming is concerned. There are much more exciting things going on with consoles I already own (PS2 & 360). The PS3 won't be a big deal until the Spring/Summer of 2007. Just like the PS2 took forever to put out a good game.

The Wii is coming out. Meh. I'm sure the 1st party games will work well with the controller but I am skeptical about anything not developed by Nintendo. I've been burned with the last 2 Nintendo consoles so I may hold off but will end up with one eventually as I buy all the major consoles. If the new Zelda looks better on a Wii I may get one just for that but it would be an impulse buy. That may be hard considering that new consoles tend to sell out pretty quickly.

The PS3 is coming out with no exciting games. Meh. The BR-player is cool and will sell me on it but that's not because of the games. This is a movie watching upgrade for me.

I'll be buying in the fall:

Gears of War (360)
Phantasy Star Universe (360)
Final Fantasy XII (PS2)
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (360)
Guitar Hero II (PS2)
PS3 - for the BR player
Wii - Maaaaaaybe. I want to demo one first but I can be easily sold.
Zelda: Twilight Princess (GC or Wii)

No predictions from me except for the obvious.