PS3 Madness, the State of Consoles & Digital Entertainment

[3catcircus]

The format war stinks but saying that the new discs are DOA is nuts. Studios will still support DVD but the new tech isn't going away any time soon. HD is huge this holiday season and will be even bigger and more affordable next year when prices on the player start to really drop and there is a large library of showcase titles.

Both formats are going to fail because the majority of consumers don't want to get caught backing the losing format, like what happened with Betamax. Additionally, with the move towards download-n-burn movies, the majority of people just aren't going to be able or willing to shell out $40 for a HD or Blu-Ray DVD to play on a $1400 player with a $2000 HDTV that requires HDMI inputs. For most people, DVD is "good enough" especially with progressive scan players available for under $100.

Or, you could just be someone who likes to spend money and have the newest gear. Some people (not myself) like working through the bugs and being in on the ground level. You may not want to do these things but others do.

Unfortunately, Joe Six-Pack (i.e. the majority of consumers) don't have the time or money to do this - and the consumers are the ones who drive the majority of sales, not the fringe techie, not the audio/videophile.

 

[Simplicity]

The differences between the PS3 launch and the Wii launch are like night and day.
Wiis have demo consoles at every game store I've been to. They're got demo kiosks sitting in the mall walkways for people to come by and play. And there's more Wiis coming before X-mas.

Game developers are excited about developing for the Wii. They want to see what can be done with the Nunchuk, and whether gaming can be made more mainstream.

The PS3s are more powerful... but they cost twice as much and aren't anywhere to be found. The All-Hating Eye of the Internet has actually turned AWAY from Microsoft to stare directly at Sony, after what may turn out to be a brilliant anti-advertising campaign. It seems like half of the gaming community at this point would rather spit on a PS3 than buy one. PS3 is DEPENDING on hard-core gamers, since they're the only ones who are going to care that this is a next-gen platform. That's not a large enough community to annoy half of.

Game developers are rather unhappy about the prospect of developing for the PS3 from what I've heard. Sure it's powerful, but it's also wonky. And it doesn't lend itself to porting to other platforms as the XBox360 does.

Meanwhile the XBox360 is providing downloadable TV shows and movies (including HD-movies) via the XBox360, and has a large, established online community.

My prediction:
The PS3 is DOA. It'll be a huge bust. Huge.
The Wii will be an enormous success.
The Xbox360 will be the next-gen platform for the hard-core gamer.

 

[Arnwyn]

The All-Hating Eye of the Internet has actually turned AWAY from Microsoft to stare directly at Sony,

My prediction:
The PS3 is DOA. It'll be a huge bust. Huge.
The Wii will be an enormous success.
The Xbox360 will be the next-gen platform for the hard-core gamer.

I presume you're talking about North America only, as opposed to worldwide? On a worldwide basis, the death of the Xbox in Japan immediately contradicts the above prediction re: PS3 and Xbox (not the Wii, which I agree with, if 3rd parties can get it together and not release the dreck that is Red Steel, and if Nintendo can actually release something good that's not Zelda/Mario/Metroid, unlike the lackluster Excitetruck).

 

[Simplicity]

I presume you're talking about North America only, as opposed to worldwide? On a worldwide basis, the death of the Xbox in Japan immediately contradicts the above prediction re: PS3 and Xbox (not the Wii, which I agree with, if 3rd parties can get it together and not release the dreck that is Red Steel, and if Nintendo can actually release something good that's not Zelda/Mario/Metroid, unlike the lackluster Excitetruck).

I THOUGHT about couching it with North America only. The PS3 lineup is much more appealing in Japan than in US. But... no. I think failure in the US is going to bring failure in Asia too. The XBox360 launch was unspectacular in Asia, but I've heard that things are starting to pick up for them. MS needs better developers for that market. But I think that's doable.

No one understands better than Microsoft that people buy software, not hardware. It's possible that the Asia/US gaming markets could fracture away from each other entirely, but I think that would be a real shame for everyone involved.

 

[John Crichton]

Both formats are going to fail because the majority of consumers don't want to get caught backing the losing format, like what happened with Betamax.

That is a stretch to make. Betamax was a stand alone format whereas BR is packed in with every PS3 and your 360 be upgraded on the cheap for HD-DVD. The investment, if you are a gamer (which is by no means a separate group of people) isn't that steep. Personally, I'm worried more about HD-DVD than BR because add-ons typically have a tough time.

Additionally, with the move towards download-n-burn movies, the majority of people just aren't going to be able or willing to shell out $40 for a HD or Blu-Ray DVD to play on a $1400 player with a $2000 HDTV that requires HDMI inputs. For most people, DVD is "good enough" especially with progressive scan players available for under $100.

Your pricing is *way* off. The cost of these products is not nearly as much as you are saying here. If the prices were that high, they would never catch on. The discs are approximately the same price which is about $20 for new release. The highest priced player is $1000 and that price will drop, just like when DVD players first came out. HD-DVD starts at $500. And that's where the PS3/360 (with add-on) come in. Gamers get the added bonus of obtaining the tech at a relative discount. And I bought my HDMI, 1080i/720p Sony 32" HDTV over 2 years ago for $800 - brand new. So you don't have to spend anywhere close to $2000 to get a HDTV.

You are still working off of prices that are from years ago or just flat-out wrong. I suggest looking around cnet.com or a local Best Buy/Circuit City to get current if you are interested.

Unfortunately, Joe Six-Pack (i.e. the majority of consumers) don't have the time or money to do this - and the consumers are the ones who drive the majority of sales, not the fringe techie, not the audio/videophile.

Yes, this is true and the HD tech is not completely mainstream. Yet. DVDs took quite a while to finally faze out VHS. They were on the shelves at the same time for years. HD-DVD/BR will be similar but I imagine a little more specialized. There is certainly enough growing support and and products available to make the switch to HD a worthwhile one for people who want the best viewing experience. You may think that HD is "fringe tech" but I would disagree. More and more people are jumping on board and those people are driving sales plus the equipment is only getting cheaper.

It's not fringe but it's also not mainstream. It's simply growing and just like with DVD (I already have a VCR, why would I need this?) the new formats should catch on and sell. It was about 6 years ago that the PS2 came out and DVD sales started to skyrocket. I don't think the same thing will happen with the new formats but they will certainly have support. And people who have HD setups will want the latest and best looking tech to view movies, TV and games.

 

[John Crichton]

The differences between the PS3 launch and the Wii launch are like night and day.
Wiis have demo consoles at every game store I've been to. They're got demo kiosks sitting in the mall walkways for people to come by and play. And there's more Wiis coming before X-mas.

Launches mean next to nothing. It's all about the long haul and continued game releases. The Wii should have a much better holiday season than the PS3, but anyone following these things has known that from the start as PS3 shortages were inevitable. The question to really look at is if any of the systems will do as well as the PS2. I say no but this will be the last holiday season on top for the PS2.

Game developers are excited about developing for the Wii. They want to see what can be done with the Nunchuk, and whether gaming can be made more mainstream.

While I like that Nintendo is trying to break the mold, I have yet to see anything either coming down the pipeline or currently in release that makes me have to go out and buy the Wii. As a HD person who has spent lots of money on my setup, the controller alone is not enough to make me get one. Nintendo may have had my money if the new Zelda was Wii only, but I know that it's a GC port not the other way around.

I want to buy a Wii, I really do but there is no reason to do so at the moment. They'll need more games to sell me.

The PS3s are more powerful... but they cost twice as much and aren't anywhere to be found. The All-Hating Eye of the Internet has actually turned AWAY from Microsoft to stare directly at Sony, after what may turn out to be a brilliant anti-advertising campaign. It seems like half of the gaming community at this point would rather spit on a PS3 than buy one. PS3 is DEPENDING on hard-core gamers, since they're the only ones who are going to care that this is a next-gen platform. That's not a large enough community to annoy half of.

There is hate, there is love, there are people buying/selling the PS3 for twice its retail price.

Game developers are rather unhappy about the prospect of developing for the PS3 from what I've heard. Sure it's powerful, but it's also wonky. And it doesn't lend itself to porting to other platforms as the XBox360 does.

Sounds like the PS2, to me. There are technical advantages to both platforms from what I understand and programing was never something Sony has been a friend to. However, they do have a stranglehold on Japan which will keep games flowing to the US and people will be snatching up PS3s as they come. The real test is yet to come. The 360 is doing well but it is the only next-gen show in town.

Where will the bulk of the exclusives come from (typically Sony's strong area) and which console keeps the games flowing along with the extras like movies, HD movies, micro transactions and the like. MS has an edge right now with their Xbox Live experience. They have also scored big with things like putting GTA4 on their console as well as the PS3. I'm excited about what is to come. This is the first real console war with equal combatants since the Genesis/SNES.

Meanwhile the XBox360 is providing downloadable TV shows and movies (including HD-movies) via the XBox360, and has a large, established online community.

HD-movies, not so much with that it seems. The HD just isn't big enough to hold more than one. I do like that shows are on the way but there isn't much there at the moment. I'm curious to see where it goes. I've never been a pay-per-view guy so it may not do much for me. Pay-to-own is more where I'm at.

My prediction:
The PS3 is DOA. It'll be a huge bust. Huge.
The Wii will be an enormous success.
The Xbox360 will be the next-gen platform for the hard-core gamer.

I disagree on all points.

The PS3/360 will go toe-to-toe this time around. It will come down to who get the better games out there with more frequency. Calling the PS3 DOA is folly.

The Wii may do well but we'll see. Where are the games?

Talking about hard-core gamers? The PC is a platform, that is for the really hard core. Maybe you meant to say that the 360 will be the platform for the FPS/RTS hard-core?

 

[Simplicity]

I disagree on all points.

The PS3/360 will go toe-to-toe this time around. It will come down to who get the better games out there with more frequency. Calling the PS3 DOA is folly.

The Wii may do well but we'll see. Where are the games?

Talking about hard-core gamers? The PC is a platform, that is for the really hard core. Maybe you meant to say that the 360 will be the platform for the FPS/RTS hard-core?

Yes, it's really too early to tell with the PS3. I'm making a gut-based prediction.

Agreed, PCs are going to be a big market for the really hardcore gamers. For an even more interesting prediction: I anticipate that XBox Live will soon be available on the PC.

Wii and PS3 both have pretty unspectacular games. Not unusual for launch time. Heck the XBox360 STILL has an unspectacular lineup, but there are starting to be some real quality items on the Xbox side (Dead Rising, Gears of War, Oblivion, etc). But my guess is that if you don't like what the Wii has now, you probably never will. That doesn't mean it won't be a success anyways. The Wii is trying to pull non-gamers into the fold, and I think they might succeed somewhat.

As for the PS3, here's the test of what developers think of a platform: when Xbox360s came out, Xbox games pretty much went away. The PS3 is coming out now, and the PS2 lineup looks far better than the PS3s ever did. GTA4 defecting to the Xbox was a big loss for PS3.

 

[Vigilance]

The Wii may do well but we'll see. Where are the games?

I can see criticisms of the Wii, but asking where are the games days after its launch? It's launch lineup is as big and as good as the PS3 launch.

And looking at the reviews, the Wii has the best rated launch game of the two systems.

 

[John Crichton]

I can see criticisms of the Wii, but asking where are the games days after its launch? It's launch lineup is as big and as good as the PS3 launch.

Oops, I mis-spoke. I was referring to the stuff down the line. Aside from the first party titles that are Nintendo's old standbys where are the other games? What else is already in development that will make folks want a Wii?

Here is the stuff that will make me buy one, eventually - Zelda, Mario, Metroid, Smash Bros, Mario Kart & Animal Crossing. I'm curious to see if there will be any more than that.

 

[Vigilance]

Oops, I mis-spoke. I was referring to the stuff down the line. Aside from the first party titles that are Nintendo's old standbys where are the other games? What else is already in development that will make folks want a Wii?

Here is the stuff that will make me buy one, eventually - Zelda, Mario, Metroid, Smash Bros, Mario Kart & Animal Crossing. I'm curious to see if there will be any more than that.

Yeah, actually, the 3rd party game that is tempting me the most is believe it or not Madden.

I really think that's a nice fit with the control scheme and it sounds like it's not a quick and dirty port, the way Marvel Ultimate Alliance was.

Im also curious about Call of Duty. Again I think the controls are a nice touch. The Wiimote could be the console equivalent of a mouse, something FPS games have been looking for almost holy-grail-like for awhile now.

So for me so far it's Zelda, Call of Duty and Madden and Trauma Center. Not bad for a nintendo system, that's three of four launch games Im interested in NOT by Nintendo.

Im also hoping the Dragon Quest game is good cause I LOVE those games.

But I'm not in a huge hurry because FF XII has taken over my life. That one game has probably pushed the Wii back to 2007 for me single handedly.