Pathfinder 1E Question for the Paizo folks regarding D&D's state of today

[Korgoth]

Eh. At 37 I'm the youngest player (so young!) in our Classic Traveller campaign (Spinward Marches, yo). We have 4 players plus 1 Ref and don't seem to have any trouble meeting on a weekly basis.

 

[Zelligars Apprentice]

My guess is that this transition is well in progress, and is behind a lot of what has been going on with the brand lately. I don't think D&D is going away or anything crazy like that, but I think a lot of it is going to go behind an online paywall, and eventually I think a great deal of D&D play is going to take place online.

--Erik

I have a great deal of respect for you, Erik, both for your success at Paizo and your previous work. And I must say that your analysis here scares the hell out of me. Are they really so short-sighted that they will torpedo the entire industry just to try and compete with WoW?

I understand you don't know the answers. Nonetheless, your opinion is respected. I hope in this case it doesn't come true. If it does, I would abandon 4E completely. The play experience is so different with a screen and keyboard in the way that it isn't worthwhile anymore.

On a related note, please DON'T do something like this with Pathfinder. I am finding more and more to like with Pathfinder the more I look at it, and to consign it to cyberspace in the search for more profits would be truly horrible.

Just one customer's opinion.

 

[olshanski]

You know, I could easily see a game going primarily online, but it would have to undergo a number of changes:

Either:
A: massive reduction in complexity or
B: massive increase in computer handling combat.

The biggest killer for online play is that combat just is not very do-able. A nice virtual tabletop and quick combat resolution would be ideal, this means no opposed rolls, combined attack/damage rolls, and in general much faster combat.

The virtual tabletop is just about there. I could easily see shelling out money to play a fun module... imagine having the "read aloud" text performed by voice actors that the DM could activate with a click. All of the combat maps would be high quality, like the published battlemats...

Basically, the publisher sinks the same amount, or perhaps a litle bit more for art and voice acting, they charge the same amount for the adventures, but there is no printing costs as everything is digital.

Right now I play a one game live and one game is PbP. I could see playing multiple PbP games or live online games with only a slight improvement in technology.

 

[Dausuul]

I have a great deal of respect for you, Erik, both for your success at Paizo and your previous work. And I must say that your analysis here scares the hell out of me. Are they really so short-sighted that they will torpedo the entire industry just to try and compete with WoW?

I understand you don't know the answers. Nonetheless, your opinion is respected. I hope in this case it doesn't come true. If it does, I would abandon 4E completely. The play experience is so different with a screen and keyboard in the way that it isn't worthwhile anymore.

On a related note, please DON'T do something like this with Pathfinder. I am finding more and more to like with Pathfinder the more I look at it, and to consign it to cyberspace in the search for more profits would be truly horrible.

Just one customer's opinion.

In the long run, there may not be a choice. If D&D really is the single gateway to the RPG community, and that gateway moves online, then the community will eventually migrate along with it. And when 90%+ of the RPG players are online, other game makers will have to follow them or wither away.

 

[Zelligars Apprentice]

In the long run, there may not be a choice. If D&D really is the single gateway to the RPG community, and that gateway moves online, then the community will eventually migrate along with it. And when 90%+ of the RPG players are online, other game makers will have to follow them or wither away.

On that day, I will mourn the death of my hobby.

 

[Korgoth]

On that day, I will mourn the death of my hobby.

At least there are other hobbies out there that are as cool. Boardgames are pretty awesome.

Hey, if the muckety-mucks don't want to sell you products, don't think you're either stuck with buying stuff you don't want (eCrap) or nothing at all. Just do something else.

If tomorrow they just up and decided not to make motorcycles anymore (replacing them with a motorized version of Sit-n-Spin), fat guys with gray hair could always go ride scooters instead. It's not the same thing, but if you absolutely want to get rained on and covered in bugs while operating a vehicle it pretty much still gets it done.

 

[SiderisAnon]

One thing I think you're forgetting when saying that Wizards may take D&D digital rather than print is that they would face the same lack of new audience that the smaller game companies would face. Right now, the print D&D book in the stores draw people into the hobby. If a lack of print books would mean a lack of new audience, that is also a lack of new customers for the digital products from Wizards. The way to grow and maintain a solid business is to bring in new customers. While there might be a lower profit margin on the paper copies due to printing, shipping, and other costs, if those books are drawing in new people to the high profit products, you keep making those books.

Bigger companies will even sell gateway products at a loss in order to get you into their products. Some printers are sold at a loss because the profit on the cartridges more than make up for it, but you don't get any cartridge sales unless they have a printer. Cell phones are sold at a loss because the profit is in the phone service plan. You can see this in gaming too where Goodman Games has a couple of modules that are $2 to get you to try their products.

While I can't claim that all corporations do only things which make sense to outsiders (or even insiders), I think that it boils down to the fact that the reason Pathfinder and other companies need D&D books in bookstores is the same reason Wizards needs those books in there.



However I will also say that I would love to see a really good online tabletop system and I would use it. Right now, it is rather difficult for me to meet new gamers. I've tried several times over the past few years and have yet to get a new group going. Life and other draws on the time have peeled away most of the gamers I've known, to the point where there are just four of us in the group now and we still can't hit every session. My work schedule makes it even more difficult because I do not have evenings free. Being able to get on and play when I want, to find other people on my schedule, to even be able to form a regular group of that, would be fantastic. If the technology can be put in to reliably support it, with the tools I need to overcome the fact that we're not all sitting around the same table, I'd rather give them my $15 per month that World of Warcraft.

There's also the opportunity to find people who play the same niche games. I have dozens of systems that I own and have never run or play in because I cannot get three people around a table to play. With a better virtual option, those 100 who bought that indie game that no one they know will play have a chance to put together a game and maybe even a campaign.

Frankly, I'd love to be running a D&D or Savage Worlds campaign right now, but I don't have the players and I don't own the tools to make it happen online. Give me those tools and access to some players, and I'll be there. I've been waiting for good online gaming tools since the days when we tried to figure out how to run a D&D session within the MUD we were all playing.

 

[Saracenus]

I have a great deal of respect for you, Erik, both for your success at Paizo and your previous work. And I must say that your analysis here scares the hell out of me. Are they really so short-sighted that they will torpedo the entire industry just to try and compete with WoW?

That is not what Erik was talking about. WotC is not going to try and compete with Blizzard, they would lose.

They are exploring the tools that people will need in order that they expand their market and control or reduce their costs.

Before you say, "But, I don't want those tools," well it might be true. But research has shown that what people "say" they want and what they actually want when given an actual choice are usually different.

For example many folks, when asked, would say they want strong black coffee. However, when given blind taste tests they really wanted more mild coffee cut with milk.

I am going to bet that once the VTT beta goes beyond the limited beta a lot more people are going to discover they actually like the tool (provided it makes it easy to form a game).

On a related note, please DON'T do something like this with Pathfinder. I am finding more and more to like with Pathfinder the more I look at it, and to consign it to cyberspace in the search for more profits would be truly horrible.

Just one customer's opinion.

Now this is something I don't understand. Why is it wrong for Paizo or WotC or anyone for that matter seek to increased profits? It is main one of the reasons for a business to exist and frankly how they stay alive. For a publicly held company it is their legal obligation to seek profit on behalf of the stockholders.

This comes back to Erik's talk about opportunity cost. Unless there is some other limitation (regulation for example) it would be stupid for Paizo not to go electronic (partially or in full) if it met the needs of its customers and reduced their costs.

And here is another dirty secret, if the loss of you as a single customer is offset by another customer that generates a better profit margin (or even better it generates 2 or more to replace you), your patronage is expendable.

With a company's limited resources you have to allocate them into what will generate the most return.

Now, I don't see Paizo abandoning their current model, they are doing quite well (they are hiring employees, putting out a steady stream of material). So, I wouldn't worry in the short term.

My two coppers,

 

[GreyLord]

Ok, but couldn't the second idea get in conflict with the first one?

I mean, if D&D can become more profitable by going fully digital it is obvious that Wotc should act so.

But if at the same time D&D needs a retail presence to remain relevant as a tabletop rpg, Wotc should have to cover for this too. Unless, D&D does not need that to remain relevant.

So, what I take from your answers is that while the industry needs D&D, D&D does not need the industry. I most honestly believe that in today's world this is categorically wrong.

Now, that may not be necessarily what you are saying here, if what you are thinking is that Wotc could manage a specific balance of operations that could let it achieve both of the above goals. And perhaps this is what you are truly thinking.

But honestly I find this highly ambitious. I find it hard to believe that mass market retailers and hobby stores could constantly keep on their shelves high numbers of the same evergreen D&D products and the casual D&D supplement that would hit the market every couple or even three or even four months or so. Simply because of their own opportunity costs.

So, whatda you say?

More like a two prong strategy perhaps...like what may be evolving for D&D right now.

Remember, Essentials was designed to be a product that was always available on the shelves. At it's heart, it is an introductory group of rules into D&D.

Some view it as a new revision...but perhaps they should consider it as exactly as stated...a product that will always be on the shelves.

After that introduction...people then can move onto a pay for info online if they want more. It's heavily suggested throughout Essentials even.

Of course, that may be shaken up within the next year...but currently a game plan like that goes hand in hand with a digital transition. Slowly drop the hard documentation...aka...hard copies of books except what is needed to draw interest...and do the rest with a subscription or at least pay model to draw monies directly to the company instead of going through middle men.

A great example...let's say a subscription service has 45,000 subscribers...and charges $10 a month. That is 450,000 a Month total, for 5.4 million dollars a year.

If a book is released and let's say it sells from the publisher for $5 (and then the shipper takes another $5 for shipping to the distributor...who then takes a $10 cut, and then to the retailer who takes a $10 cut for a cost of $30 to the consumer) they need to sell at least 90,000 hardcopies to equal this, and that's at the rate of releasing one book per month. The hardcopy books take twice the amount of people and resource to create and put out as well...so that's also a detractor...so we'll say you have to actually sell 100K copies to make up for it.

Now if you have a slump one month...and people don't like what you put out as much...and you only sell 30K books...you suddenly have a lower income. People can be locked in at $10 a month for the online payment...but you can't do the same for hardcopies.

In that light it could actually be a lot easier and cheaper to get an online pay formulation with the only hardcopies really being available being the introductory books on the shelves.

You slow sales down to a trickle, release more information via payments online...and you see profits increase hopefully.

Not saying this is exactly what's happening...but it's just some thoughts on what Essentials actually could be used for in WotC's current strategy.

 

[Griego]

I think WotC moving D&D online is a done deal, it's just a matter of time until they get the tools working correctly (or, sell the IP to somebody who can). It's a way for them to wring more profit out of the current userbase and, as has been noted upthread, a good (best?) way for them to expand the market. Print books are under serious assault by e-books and retail is losing/lost to Amazon and other online outlets. I don't think WotC is only doing it for more profit, I think they will have to sooner or later, just to keep D&D from falling into a much smaller niche than it already occupies.