@AbdulAlhazred made this point some way upthread:
To me, it seems that the real issue is this:
@AlViking and
@Maxperson are affirming some restricted version of the following principle:
Counterfactual statements about the real world, and counterfactual statements about the fiction, should tightly correlate with one another.
That is why they insist that
what would the GM have narrated, had the roll succeeds must correlate tightly with the way causation is working in the fiction. This then leads to an idea that the purpose of the dice roll and the associated decision-making about resolution is to directly model the causal process that is taking place in the fiction.
The RPG that I know that comes closest to an unrestricted version of the above principle is RuneQuest. There are two reasons that I say that
@AlViking and
@Maxperson are affirming a restricted version of the principle:
(1) There are big chunks of D&D's mechanics, including its surprise mechanics (as per my post not too far upthread), its stop-motion combat resolution (as per a post of mine further upthread), and other stuff too (eg at least some aspects of saving throws and hit points) that don't conform to the principle. It's that failure of conformity to the principle that explains why all the classic simulationist FRPGs that were designed in reaction to D&D (RQ, RM, etc)
don't use these resolution mechanics, or at least try to minimise them to a great degree.
(2) They don't adhere to the principle in cases like the farrier you've been discussing with
@Maxperson, which
@AlViking also distinguished from the guard and cook cases:
The details wouldn't be added but for the player's question, and so the
tight correlation principle is not adhered to.
As I also posted some way upthread, these restrictions on the
tight correlation principle don't seem readily explicable except as
a common way that D&D has done things. That's fine, but doesn't provide the foundation for some sort of principled attack on other approaches (eg for violating the tight correlation principle).