Whether or not a burglar opens the door while someone is there to see them has a lot to do with their competence as a burglar. At least it seems like that to me.Whether or not someone is in a room has zero to do with competence of a lock picker.
Yes, as I have said, competent people make their own luck.how many times have you seen a movie where the master thief is picking a lock and someone walks by and he has to stop and play it cool, or opens the lock and door to find someone behind it and has to shut the door quickly to avoid being seen, waiting until the person is gone?
Now if you are telling me that your skill system can't differentiate between a burglar and a locksmith; or must resolve every twist of the lockpicks as a separate roll, rather than factoring in the need to stop and play it cool as part of the check, OK. But that's probably not a skill system that is very well suited for "fail forward" resolution.
And for clarity: it is not inherent to D&D that its skill system, or resolution system more generally, be like the one described in the previous paragraph. For instance, it's pretty clear in classic D&D that a roll to find a secret door encompasses a whole lot of discrete actions. And a class D&D thief's roll to pick a pocket seems to me to factor in all their stops and starts and making sure they don't get caught doing it.