D&D General [rant]The conservatism of D&D fans is exhausting.

I'm not necessarily saying that the dice specifically need to do that.

I am saying that, for the kind of simulation being laid claim to here, that D&D is claimed to produce, some kind of mechanic does need to do it. And no, I don't accept "GM says" as a "mechanic" for this purpose.

You're apparently confusing my point with being about simulation. Its not and has never been. I have had two points and only two in my recent posts: 1. Assigning difficulty by modifying skill or by setting target numbers is only meaningfully different to the degree it does not consider the same factors and produce the same probability, and 2. That most of the point in a die roll in resolution is to represent factors too fine or varied to be handled in other ways.

Any other points have been other peoples', not mine.
 

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Apparently you aren't reading very well right now. I mean, you quoted what I said in your very next quote of mine and it makes this response of yours completely nonsensical. I will quote myself so you can read it more carefully.
Mod Note:

I get what you’re saying, but that’s a very confrontational way of expressing yourself. Do better.
 

..Yes, Max. And that's precisely my problem.

The rules don't tell you SQUAT about which one is correct.

They are simply, flatly, absolutely, completely, utterly, SILENT.

That is what the problem is
Er, you really expect the rule to include the millions of specific ways that you can fall?

It is more than sufficient to just tell you that a failure of skill is how it happened. What you are looking for is a massive overstep by the rules. It's higly limiting on play and harms the game by being that way. There isn't a good reason for a rule to mandate that you slipped on a rock or banana peel.
......those two things are the same! By doing one you always, guaranteed, 100%, do the other!
No they aren't. If I narrate that a loose rock made fall, it says nothing about Uncle Lemmy teaching you to climb.

How your skill became sufficient is not the same as your skill being sufficient.
 

And I just see this as, frankly, legitimizing Extremely Lazy Design. I don't really have a whole lot to say to the preceding stuff, because it all ultimately hinges on this specific problem. I think a game that is being sold to people shouldn't be "and now it's your job to actually build a game out of this", unless it is explicitly sold as a build-your-own-game product.

D&D hasn't been that since at least WotC editions. I'd argue it hasn't been that since 2nd edition, given certain turnarounds Gygax had that bled into the game design, but whether that's true or not is a philosophical debate I'm not interested in right now.
Not a legitimisation. A description. D&D has a staggering number of explicit options. Also trying to run it based on only what is written would reveal it as an utterly incomplete and unplayable mess. I would claim it absolutely relly on the GM and the group to impose some structure not explicitely stated into it to make it playable.

Is it lazy design? Perhaps. Still if we are to try to talk about how this game that dominates (when can I start saying dominated) our hobby actually works, that is more or less impossible without nailing down some parameters ourselves.

But this just makes the whole thing circular. The narration takes the form it did because of the skills, but now you're saying we know it must be about skill because of how it was narrated--you've inverted the causation to conclude that it did the right thing. That's circular logic.
Well, to be fair it could have been narrated that way due to pure luck. This is not a circular reasoning, it is a Bayesan one. We try to determine if the narration took it's form because the referee tok into account skill. You appeared to reject this notion. We cannot directly observe the referee's mindset, hence the truth value of the claim "The GM used skill as an input to narration" (A) is unknown. However we have an observation in terms of what was narrated (B).

My observation was that the probability for having a narration with the carracteristics of B if A was true appeared much higher than the probability if A was not true. That is P(B|A) >> P(B|not A). Simple application of Baye's theorem show that this require either P(A|B) is much greater than P(not A|B) or P(not A) is much greater than P(A) (or both). In the first case my assessment that A is true is well funded as we observe B (though it could be dumb luck).

However if indeed it is in general very unlikely that A happens at all, P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|not A)P(not A) is going to be small, as both terms contains a factor that is known to be much smaller than something else (and hence small). And if this is the case I wonder why you brought up such an unlikely scenario as an example? (Anyway, I guess this could be just dumb luck as well..)

I don't have a problem with this sort of thing. I find it perfectly acceptable.

But you, and others, have specifically brought up the problem of retrocausal situations. Hell, it literally just came up in a conversation I had with someone else. The idea that the failed lockpicking roll "creates" the person walking down the hallway to find it. That's exactly what is happening here. The failed perception roll creates the distractedness of the character--but that distractedness had to have been the cause of the bad result, not the effect of it.

Such retrocausal resolution is something most offensive to pretty much everyone I've spoken to who advocates vociferously for simulation.
Ah, ok. I am not in the retrocausality as an issue camp. My observations in the situations this has been a controversy has been related to correlations if systemically used over time. I don't think this particular instance of "retrocausality" produces that kind of problematic correlations. It can hence be interesting to see what anyone actually speaking up against the actual concept of retrocausallity thinks of this approach :)
 


I'm not necessarily saying that the dice specifically need to do that.

I am saying that, for the kind of simulation being laid claim to here, that D&D is claimed to produce, some kind of mechanic does need to do it. And no, I don't accept "GM says" as a "mechanic" for this purpose.
(Emphasis mine.) Once I exclude the lusory-means specified by a game text, it should be unsurprising that I can no longer explain how using that text can satisfy some prelusory-goal.

What I might do is show it cannot without commitment to some lusory-means I disfavour. But why is such a finding important?
 
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Aren't they? Do you say this based on your own expert knowledge of runes in dungeons?

Eg do you not think an archaeologist might be better at conjecturing what some writing is likely to be about, before they read it, based on what else they can observe about it, its location, etc, than a non-expert?
Yes. Or at least I'm better at it than a pile of text.

And no, I don't think an archeologist is better at figuring out what some random piece of writing is than I am without reading it first. That piece of writing could be a grocery list, poem, a request for aid or a billion other things. That's why they work so hard at translating things and don't just guesa.
 

Yeah, but there is really no such thing as luck, everything is caused by something. We just tend to call the product of all sorts of innumerable variables "luck."
What we call luck are generally those things that happen that are outside of our control.

If youe PC falls because he failed to notice or test a rock to see if it was loose, that's a failure of skill. If he falls because a bird landed on a loose rock and it fell 100 feet and hit you in the head while you were climbing, that's bad luck.

Oh, and pixies!
 

Ok. I already accepted that advantage/disadvantage satisfies my definition of sim.

What happens when you don't have either though? When you are rolling only one die?
Then that's the die you're rolling.

Like I said before, you can do the math if you really want to in order determine what actually caused you to succeed or fail. The 5e books all put it in this order: d20 + your stat mod + PB + any other mods you have. So let's say you have a stat with a +3 mod and your PB is +2. If the DC is 13 and you roll a 10, then you succeed because of your raw ability (stat mod). If the DC is 15, you succeed because of your skill (skill + PB). If you rolled a 15, then you succeeded because of something outside your own abilities, since neither your stat mod nor your skill were needed here. Yes, you still need to figure out what form that "outside your own abilities" takes--luck, you found all the handholds, those meddling pixies, whatever, but, well, IMO it'd be kind of sad if the game didn't even let you figure out that much on your own.
 

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