Faolyn
(she/her)
I think @EzekialRaiden blocked me (I can still see his posts, though, so I dunno; maybe he's just ignoring me), so he likely won't see this. If @AlViking or someone else wants to use this math, y'all can go ahead.Noooope. Don't need to "heavily, heavily stack the odds".
It's literally just like a hundred, hundred and fifty peasants with slings. That's all you need. "Perfectly positioned"? Not at all. Literally just don't cluster up and don't stand in a straight line.
A semicircular arc is good enough, or a couple arcs, or just scattered around in, say, a 60x60 square.
Dragons should not ever assault anything bigger than a..."hamlet" I think was the official term from the Gygaxian era? They'll straight-up die as long as the villagers are even remotely trying to defend themselves.
And if you think I'm wrong, prove it. Prove the dragon almost always survives. The math is there. You should be able to easily show that this isn't a problem. Presume 150 peasants distributed loosely across a field. Shouldn't be hard at all to show that an adult red dragon can essentially always survive that, as you're claiming.
You have to wait for the peasant to roll a nat 20, right? And no matter the edition, a sling does about 1d4 + a stat mod damage, which peasants rarely have. (If this is 5e, by the way, the dragon can easily keep out of regular range, meaning that the peasants would have disad on the roll, meaning that they'd have to roll a nat 20 on both dice.)
Now, in the time it takes for you to get that many peasants rolling nat 20s, well, I will once again let the esteemed Mr. Burlew do the talking:
Dragons have breath weapons that generally have longer range than slings do. At most, they'll take a tiny bit of damage before they destroy all those peasants. Even if they space themselves out wide enough so that more than one or a couple gets hit by the breath at once (which begs the question of how they know how big that space is). Even back in 1e, when breath weapons were pretty weak, one breath would take out a huge chunk of those peasants in a single use, especially since even black dragons are smart enough to position themselves effectively. And many dragons have magic and minions (of any number of hp), and most dragons are at least as smart as peasants are.
Your math only works if the dragon sits there and does nothing. And actually, it falls apart even then, if the dragon is old enough to have dragonfear. AD&D peasants would immediately flee, no save, due to their low Hit Dice, and in later editions many or even most of the peasants would fail their save.
Here's the note from the 1e MM: At adult age and older they radiate a powerful aura which causes a fear reaction, when a dragon flies overhead or charges, as follows: All creatures under 1 hit die, as well as non-carnivorous creatures of any sort which are not trained for warfare [[note: such as peasants]] or basically not fearless or aggressive will flee in panic. Such rout will be made at fastest speed possible, and it will continue for 4-24 turns. Creatures with fewer than 3 hit dice must save versus magic or be paralyzed with fear (50%)or panic as above (50%). Emphasis mine.
in 2e and later, the dragon doesn't have to be charging or flying overhead; they cause fear "just at the mere sight of them." Although they only run for 4d6 minute-long rounds in 2e, not 10-minute turns as in 1e.
So let's take the young black dragon. In 1e, their breath weapon would do anywhere from 18-24 damage in a 60-foot-long, 5(?)-foot wide line. In 2e, they do 8d4+4 damage in the same line. In 3e, that drops to a simple 8d4 damage, but same 60 feet. I ain't looking up 4e, so in 5e, that's either 11d8 damage or 14d6 in a 30-foot line, depending on if you use 5.14 or 5.24. But in 5e, they aren't limited to 3 uses per day, and they will definitely be able to recharge their breaths in the time it takes those peasants to roll all those nat 20s. In every single edition, even with successful saves for half damage, the peasants caught in the breaths will die.
And again, this assumes that the young/juvenile dragon is just sitting there doing nothing but attacking. Not using the terrain (swamp) or its swim speed to its advantage. Not using magic or the innate ability it has in many editions to cast darkness, not dividing its physical attacks among multiple peasants, not using the fact its a big scary monster such that even without a fear aura or Intimidation skill (in 5e; 3e dragons had 'it) it can herd peasants into dangerous areas. And that's a young/juvenile dragon. An older one will simply have more abilities and be deadlier.
So yeah. If the dragon isn't played by a sleeping GM, even adhering strictly to RAW most of those 150 peasants are going to be lunch and the rest of the peasants will have fled due to dragonfear, not simply common sense, long before they could nickel-and-dime the dragon to death.