Jim Hague said:
I'd like to believe this. Honestly, I would. But I think iTunes success lies with a)ease of use, b) trendy product and c)lack of consequences for dowloading. Joe Average sees that the RIAA levels lawsuits of tens of thousands of dollars, gasps, and realizes that downloading (or, more likely getting Joe Junior to) might get them in real trouble. Off they go to iTunes to fill their iPod with the latest and greatest.
Then we have the folks parasitizing a niche market, where creators can't sue for lost profits, where there's almost no consequences for their actions. So yes, people so inclined get for free what they might pay for, zero consequences. While your friends might be exceptions (and bully for them), the majority of nameless, faceless p2p PDF pirates (despite being alliterative) don't buy...because they don't have to. Check out the innumerable threads where gamers want mechanics by Tynes, art by Michelangelo, and a price tag by Dollar General - quite a few fellow gamers want it perfect, all-color, cheap and NOW. And p2p feeds that.
Yeah, I honestly don't know. I also hope that there's vastly more honest people out there than not, but you're right in saying that Apple has a lot going for them that your normal small-press (or large) RGP publisher doesn't. Also, comparing books and music is always hazardous, since a PDF is quite different from a dead tree book while there's a lot less difference between a physical CD and the associated sound data.
That last difference does work out as a good thing for print publishers, since at least for now printed books are vastly nicer to read than PDF, so there's a huge quality gap. A lot of people will buy the book simply because it offers the best quality. When tech catches up to the point where you can curl up on the sofa with some reader that's as convenient as a paper book, then we'll be where music is now.
Looking at iTunes gives me some hope (and other online music stores that seem to be successful, try
http://www.magnatune.com for an interesting experiment on this that has been profitable so far). But... yeah. The PDF rpg market is a fairly new and evolving one, and it's pretty hard to say where the chips will fall. I really hope thing turn out well for the artists and publishers, I love the current situation where I can buy some stuff as PDF which would not be profitable enough to publish in paper form -- it keeps smaller game lines alive.
Actually, Magnatune kind of supports my "people don't always choose the cheapest option" viewpoint. Over there, you choose how much you want to play for an album, in the range $5 - $18 (if I recall correctly). Artist gets half that money, half goes to Magnatune. Now, you'd think that the average person would pay the minimum $5... and you'd be wrong. I think the average amount that customers pay is a bit over $8 (last I checked), and a lot of people pay $12-$14 per album -- just because they like the album and want to support the artist. I know that I usually pay $10-$12 per album there, because that's what the music is worth to me.
They also let you give a free copy of any album you buy to up to 3 friends, and there is no DRM involved (the music is cd-quality sound files). According to the owner, they are making steady profit selling music.
Food for thought.