Henry
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drothgery said:...Before relatively inexpensive and easily available broadband and CD writers, large-scale piracy was a much smaller concern.
...All of which means that while it was possible to ignore some level casual copying ten or twenty years ago, I don't think it is anymore. Which is why I expect someone in the movie, music, or software industry (probably Microsoft...) to come up with a DRM system that's very difficult to crack and lets most people do what they think they should be able to do with legal copies.
Guess what -- You've probably heard of Microsoft's .NET intiative, but have you heard of Microsoft's Palladium initiative? Both of these technologies, if come to fruition, go hand in hand. Microsoft has come to the conclusion that software piracy will ultimately kill them, if taken to its ultimate end; they are sponsoring an thrust that is almost backwards in concept -- if the critical components of the software are kept server-side, then there's nothing to pirate -- the content becomes dependent on a server-client model, a la web browsers and old-style mainframes, and is easier to control. The very same technologies that make piracy so easy, such as broadband connections, will enable companies to offer cheap subscription services to software that is always up-to-date with the latest patches each time you log in to use them.
SPECULATION: Of course, this means that software piracy will change to meet this. Instead of "Warez sites" you'll have "Rogue Server" sites, where cyber-nomads set up their tents to offer software for free -- but as they are forced to move around, their services become spotty....
...Until the cracks become available for the server suites in the first place. Then, since computers are so cheap, you will have pirated home-based networks with an inexpensive server set up with all those pirated ".NET" and "Cracked Palladium" Warez....
...and the cycle continues, in the same dance that it has for the past 20 years.