Rule-of-Three: 07/24/2012

[Echohawk]

However, as I noted in my first post on the subject, if DDI had been the runaway success they wanted, then they would not be developing 5e, or at least not a 5e that is as significantly different from 4e. At most, we'd be seeing something of a clean-up of the previous edition, where WotC did a few more fundamental math fixes, cleared out the clutter of all the 'junk' feats (etc) accumulated by 4e, but did not fundamentally change the underlying structure of the game.

Yeah, that is a good point.

My guess (and it is just a guess!) is that although 4e has not been as popular as WotC might have hoped, the DDI has been reasonably successful. In other words, DDI has done okay despite 4e, not because of it. Not well enough to shore up 4e all by itself, but well enough to be worth keep it running, especially given the current approach of "we want to support players of all editions" WotC seems to have adopted.

I'm sure WotC can accurately measure which DDI features get the most use, so I do expect the exact content offered in return for a DDI subscription to change over the next year. Those features getting the most use (i.e. are the reasons people subscribe) are the most likely to continue being supported.

So, 12-18 months from now, my guess is that a DDI subscription will:

• Still give you access to the 4e Character Builder/Monster Builder/Compendium
• Give you access to Dragon/Dungeon articles which are a mixture of edition-neutral content, D&D Next content, and occasional support for 4e and earlier editions.
• Maybe give you access to a basic D&D Next Character Builder, but nothing as complex as the current CB.
• Maybe give you access to a bunch of simpler D&D Next tools: encounter builders, random treasure generators, etc.

 

[Dire Bare]

So in other words, not the foreseeable future.

Wrong. While WotC isn't publishing new 4E print products, they continue to release new 4E content monthly through DDI. And they likely will continue doing so until 5E is released, and potentially even after that if there is enough demand.

 

[SkidAce]

Wrong. While WotC isn't publishing new 4E print products, they continue to release new 4E content monthly through DDI. And they likely will continue doing so until 5E is released, and potentially even after that if there is enough demand.

I am normally an optimist.

However, I will bet you a virtual cookie that they stop publishing 4e content before 5e is released.

Chocolate chip of course.

 

[Obryn]

I will be stunned if there's any new material past the new year on the website.

I will be equally stunned if WotC continues to support the 4e DDI tools. The silence on that count has been deafening.

I see little chance of anything else here. Either WotC won't want to compete with themselves, or they'll want to pretend 4e never existed. Neither of these goals are compatible with continued availability of the tools.

-O

 

[Ahnehnois]

I will be stunned if there's any new material past the new year on the website.

I will be equally stunned if WotC continues to support the 4e DDI tools. The silence on that count has been deafening.

I see little chance of anything else here. Either WotC won't want to compete with themselves, or they'll want to pretend 4e never existed. Neither of these goals are compatible with continued availability of the tools.

-O

Perhaps they will realize it isn't a competition. The market is pretty well split, and while 4e has certainly brought that to a new level, the splits run deep. Even if 5e is relatively successful, there will still be people playing every edition of D&D. In particular, if 5e is successful in recapturing the feel and function of other editions of D&D, there may be a significant 4e audience that doesn't like it.

So the issue is the same as with the older edition pdfs and the like. If there's a demand, why wouldn't WotC saturate the broader D&D market and provide support for older editions, as long as it's cost-effectively done?

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Perhaps they will realize it isn't a competition. The market is pretty well split, and while 4e has certainly brought that to a new level, the splits run deep. Even if 5e is relatively successful, there will still be people playing every edition of D&D. In particular, if 5e is successful in recapturing the feel and function of other editions of D&D, there may be a significant 4e audience that doesn't like it.

So the issue is the same as with the older edition pdfs and the like. If there's a demand, why wouldn't WotC saturate the broader D&D market and provide support for older editions, as long as it's cost-effectively done?

If it's cost-effective done is the operative word, I think. Going to "maintenance" mode with character builder and monster builder may be cheap, or it may not be cheap.

I only know that as long as I play D&D 4 and the tools are still there, I have a reason to subscribe to DDI.

 

[Stalker0]

The really interesting question is - how long with character and monster builder and the compendium be available?

As long as the money they generate is more than the cost of maintaining the online sites.

These tools are the moneymarkers now because they require minimal ongoing costs. All of the intellectual investment has already been made, now you just spend money to keep the lights on.

 

[Stalker0]

So the issue is the same as with the older edition pdfs and the like. If there's a demand, why wouldn't WotC saturate the broader D&D market and provide support for older editions, as long as it's cost-effectively done?

I agree with this personally, and I think the rerelease of the 1e books is a sign of that.

Even if WOTC is not creating new intellectual materials for old editions, there is still money to be made. They can move materials to an online format, they can provide new tools that even old editions would appreciate, etc.

Now the flip side to that is WOTC has limited manpower. If supporting older editions takes manpower away from Dnd Next, and Next is the more profitable product overall...then it may not be worth their time even if their is profit in the old materials.