Ryan Dancey on Phase II

[The Sigil]

My thoughts (FWIW)...

The viewpoint I have is that the OGL/D20 project "pricked" a balloon of creative frustration that had been building since the '70s. That frustration was the sum total of all the DMs who read published D&D products and thought, "I could do better than that". The OGL/D20 combo let them try and see for themselves if they could. It turns out that the number of people willing to take a creative and financial risk using the D&D rules is a heck of a lot bigger than the number of people who were willing to try and bootstrap off a brand new game system (no real surprise). What was surprising to me was how good many of those people actually were at doing content creation.

I think Ryan is "spot on" here - how many of us have heard that Setting A, B, or C or Adventure A, B, or C is basically someone's old campaign re-worked into 3e?

A licensing framework now understood well enough that even the very risk adverse can start to feel comfortable that the framework is stable and usable.

A large pool of experienced commercial publishers/designers, who have been through the crucible of fan knee-jerk criticism and perceived insanities in the economics of the channel.

Retailers are now aware of, and understand, the "d20 System" trademark and what it means in terms of interest from their customers.

Most importantly, we now have examples of what to do -- and what NOT to do with your products. IOW, it's become fairly clear how far you can push the envelope in regards to legality (obviously the firestorm swirling around the BoEF tells us that the bounds or morality are less well-defined).

There is also a vast library of knowledge - and knowledgeable people to get advice from - something that we didn't have three years ago.

Customers who have been exposed to a wide range of product quality and who have begun to become educated about how to discriminate between similar products from different publishers effectively.

Thankfully. Publishers are being forced to raise the bar, as there is no longer truth to the adage, "if it has d20 slapped on it, it sells no matter how bad it is."

Publishers who can't get into distribution and can't forge a side-channel deal will either give up in frustration, or go to PDF sales. The PDF sales channel will become the "minor leagues" of the tabletop RPG publishing world - a place for people to hone their skills, get their preconceived notions shattered, and experiment with form and function in a mostly harmless way. The occasional success story that comes out of the PDF channel will serve as the impetuous to the other participants to keep plugging away.

The thing is, the d20 PDF market has, as I see it, already "coalesced" somewhat into four tiers of publishers...

1.) Malhavoc Press and possibly E.N. Publishing - These guys are the unquestioned cream of the PDF crop. Many of their products are put into print as well. People unfamiliar with PDFs but willing to try the format are willing to buy their products sight unseen, because they know them already by reputation - and people familiar with PDFs almost universally have a majority these companies' releases on their "must buy" list.

2.) The "high-quality" PDF designers - These are PDF designers whose products exhibit consistent high quality and get a decent volume of sales - not enough to quit their day jobs, but enough to get a return on their investments. I think there are probably around half a dozen of these - they have "quality" associated with their brand name. People unfamiliar with PDFs may be willing to buy their products sight unseen - and people familiar with PDFs probably have most of these companies' releases on their "must buy" list. If one of these publishers puts out a work on a subject that interests a person familiar with PDFs, it's all but a lock that the person will trust them enough to make the purchase. They could probably survive one "bad" release with their reputation intact - but won't release a bad product so it doesn't matter.

3.) The "re-release of print products" - This includes Bastion Press and Mystic Eye Games and Atlas Games - this is print companies that re-release OOP products as PDFs. I don't yet have a good feel for where they sit in relation to the other groups as far as customer purchasing patterns... and since only their early stuff has been released thus far (for the most part) the quality is probably slightly less than that of groups #1 and 2... but only because their "new" releases are really a couple of years old.

4.) Everyone else. PDF junkies (like me) will buy their stuff but the vast majority of PDF people wait to hear a review or two before buying unless the subject is one they absolutely love. With two to three consecutive solid releases, these guys can probably move up into category #2. With a bad release or two, they can (unfortunately) get blacklisted and crash into obscurity.

--The Sigil

 

[Shard O'Glase]

I agree on this note as well. Take a look at SSZ from Green Ronin. It's won numerous awards and some very honorable mentions, but what else did they put out last year that even came close to this?

SSZ? Not familair with this one.

But last year what rocked at Green Ronin, well Freeport"city of adventure, and Mutants and Masterminds. I'm not sure how many people work there but 2 very good products in 1 year sounds good to me from a smaller press company than wizards.

 

[Kerrick]

Getting back on topic...

This is very interesting. Several people have been predicting that the market would reach "critical mass" and that companies would either be dropping out or consolidating, and those opinions are being supported by Mr. Dancey. The whole thing sounded a little "gloom and doom" and carried the weight of (no offense ) but it also sounds right on the mark.

It's been happening for about the last six months, really - individuals and entire companies are dropping out as they begin to realize that they can't just write a book or three and become rich. Those who have the perseverance, the vision, and the creativity to keep going, however, are finding that they CAN make some money and become known among gamers and industry folks. It's kind of like interning - you don't get paid squat for it at first, but you get your name out there along with your work, and if you're good, you can get a job (or sell more books, if you're already working for a company).

Also you will always have the dual publishers who publish print and pdf. Though I think that these are the success stories he's talking about.

Yeah, I think most successful publishers will do both, simply so they can hit both markets - the low-cost, internet-savvy group and the "I want to hold it in my hands" group who is willing to shell out a few etxra dollars for a print product. Add to that that not all of us have easy access, and marketing your books as pdf as well as print makes a lot of sense. Granted there's the element of piracy, but hell, anyone can scan a print book and do the same...

"Phase II" products are likely to incorporate content shared between several friendly publishers....

We've already seen some of this.

Yes, and we're going to see more - and that's a GOOD thing. Companies are starting to realize just how far they can push the OGL and that by helping others, they are in essence helping themselves. This will create greater interdependence between products as, like Ryan said, more and more rules become generally accepted as (dare I say) "canon" and people simply refer to the rules for intership combat or ritual casting ot what-have-you.

Another consequence of this is that the gaming community is becoming smaller - not literally, but figuratively. Publishers and producers are getting to know each other better, freelance writers/editors/artists are having a better time of breaking into the market as they get their names known ("Hey, do you know anything about so-and-so?" "Yeah, he did some work for me, and I really liked it." Stuff like that.), and producers and writers for the various companies are becoming more comfortable sharing their work around.

I'd like to offer a prediction, for what it's worth: I think that soon the gaming industry will be dominated by four or five major companies. It's already happening now, really, but the division between "big time" and "small potatoes" will become more pronounced within the next year or two. Companies like Malhavoc, Green Ronin, ENPublishing, and Mongoose will continue to grow - unless something untoward happens - and the smaller companies will either be absorbed, go out of business, or become sidelines for people with real jobs - they put out a book here and there without any expectations of making money, but simply for fun (and if it DOES make some money, so much the better).

 

[Swack-Iron]

The thing that always amazes me about Ryan Dancey's rhetoric is how he seems to be interested in not only dominating the RPG market (a laudable goal for a business person) but in utterly eliminating all competition -- witness his "zero cost" theory that he expands on in today's news.

I enjoy D20, but I enjoy many other systems and games too, which I'm glad are *not* D20. I like the variety. I'm not alone, of course. There are plenty of folks out there that either purchase multiple game systems or simply hate D20. And that's a *good* thing IMO.

Because in nature, in economics, and in modern Western social practice having just one homogenous type to the exclusion of all others is a *bad* thing.

In fact, in D&D, we call that Lawful Evil.

 

[BiggusGeekus@Work]

I enjoy D20, but I enjoy many other systems and games too, which I'm glad are *not* D20. I like the variety. I'm not alone, of course. There are plenty of folks out there that either purchase multiple game systems or simply hate D20. And that's a *good* thing IMO.

Because in nature, in economics, and in modern Western social practice having just one homogenous type to the exclusion of all others is a *bad* thing.

There will always be multiple systems. You won't ever have to worry about that. If anything the expansion of D&D under the OGL could even help them.

Consider:

D&D expands and more D&D products are created. People like the familiarity of d20 so they primarily buy d20. D&D grows while other game systems fail, hold steady, or grow slowly. So while D&D enjoys a greater market share, the market is expanding and exposure to alternate systems increases. As a percentage D&D may rule, but in terms of units sold alternative systems can do just fine.

In fact, the growth of D&D can help alternative systems because you'll have a greater infrastructure that supports game publishing! One of the most expensive parts of game publishing is the art. Imagine d20 Publisher A commisioning art from artist B and lets the artist retain the rights to sell the artwork to secondary publishers (very common). So now Publisher C finds a piece of artwork that is desireable and can actually afford to buy rights to use it because that's MUCH cheaper than buying outright. Result: a better climate for publishers! Everyone wins.

Look, there are still polka bands. Just because pop divas and boy bands dominate the music industry doesn't mean polka bands have ceased to exist. I wouldn't even be surprised to learn that polka music is selling better now than it was 50 years ago. It's just that Modanna & others like her have a much larger percentage of the market.

Now, all that being said ... please remember just how small an industry this all is. I'll happily make jokes about White Wolf, but I'll never lose sight of the fact that all gamers need each other. We're just too small a market to do anything other than that. D&D will never be a monolith. We'll be lucky if it becomes a speed bump.

 

[kenjib]

I agree with you Swack-Iron. I think the quality of gaming benefits from more stuff getting out there. This brings up a question though. Small publishers can still put out stuff using the OGL license but without using any of the d20 mechanics or license. You could, for example, put out a new version of GURPS or HERO under the OGL with a new branding license similar to the d20 license.

If this strategy worked so well for WotC, then why is this the exception rather than the norm right now among other game systems? Does D&D's traditional market dominance give them a special position where only they can benefit substantially from a licensing scheme like this?

What would happen if HERO came out with a d20-style licensing scheme? What if a smaller print run game like Riddle of Steel game out under OGL?

 

[kenjib]

There will always be multiple systems. You won't ever have to worry about that. If anything the expansion of D&D under the OGL could even help them.

Good point. I stopped playing RPGs entirely. D&D 3e brought me back and now I'm starting to look at alternate systems, so there could be some trickle down effect. I suppose it could go either way.

D&D will never be a monolith. We'll be lucky if it becomes a speed bump.

Hehehe. Methinks that last sentence comes across not quite how you intended it to. We'll be lucky if D&D becomes a speed bump indeed!

 

[johnsemlak]

It's been happening for about the last six months, really - individuals and entire companies are dropping out as they begin to realize that they can't just write a book or three and become rich. Those who have the perseverance, the vision, and the creativity to keep going, however, are finding that they CAN make some money and become known among gamers and industry folks. It's kind of like interning - you don't get paid squat for it at first, but you get your name out there along with your work, and if you're good, you can get a job (or sell more books, if you're already working for a company).

What are some examples of d20 publishers that have pulled out?

 

[BiggusGeekus]

What are some examples of d20 publishers that have pulled out?

The Diomen guys, that much I know.

The Twin Crowns people seem to have moved toward LARPing. I don't know if they count or not.

 

[Kerrick]

Netherland Press, the guys who wrote Primal Codex, and Grinning Goblin. I'm sure there are a few others, but those are the ones I was thinking of when I wrote that post.