Yes. Unless I am mistaken, since the probability of rolling a 16 or better on 4d6 drop lowest is 13%, the probability of not having a 16 over the six rolls is 0.87^6 or 43%. In more than half the cases, someone will have a 16... Given the importance of the top ability (both for SAD classes and for satisfying the feeling of playing someone good at his schtick), I don't understand why they capped the standard array and point-buy at 15 in 5e.
And yet, we still play the game, and have fun doing it.
I think I know why they capped the standard array at 15*.
No offense, but in contrast to Hussar, I am really for
randomly generated ability scores. I am in the minority on this point, and I have accepted that truth. I'm not against Point Buy or the Standard Array, and that's okay.
At my table, we can choose between the Standard random method of rolling 4d6, the Standard Array, Point Buy, or my patented Dice Point** method. Plus, if we decide to roll, but dislike what the dice gave us, we can take the Standard Array instead. However, we can only roll once
. I like to reward risk***, and I think that is why they cap the Standard Array and Point Buy at 15.
If we're willing to risk it all on the toss of a die, then our reward is the possibility of a 16, 17, or even an 18. If we don't want to take the risk then we will never get more than a 15. And that's okay. When I noticed that both
the Standard Array and
Point Buy are capped at 15, that is when I became okay with the two methods.
Someday, I may write about why I prefer randomly generated scores, but not now. It's a much larger topic for me than just ability scores. It's not about math, or balance, or fairness (obviously).
Anyway, I hope I did not offend anybody. It certainly is not the intent. But, we "Randos" do exist, and by golly we have fun--believe it or not.
* In no way am I implying that I have special knowledge or understanding that others do not.
** A combination of Point Buy and Dice Rolling that brings out the best of both worlds. And completely eliminates dump scores. Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back!
*** Again, not trying to imply that I'm better than anybody.