It would explode. That's what explosions are; some material rapidly expanding. In order for the "shrunken" water to expand inside the confined sphere, there would have to be sufficient energy to burst the sphere. Otherwise the water doesn't expand. Really, I can't think of any examples in real-world physics where a substance instantly springs into existence inside a volume that would be too small for it. So, you have to go with some "it's magic, it just works that way" conjecture.
Assume the water was compressed to an extreme degree, so that the larger volume of water was made to fit inside the smaller sphere. The water mollecules would get packed together in a super-solid state. Maybe if you re-grow shrunken water inside an unbreakable metal shpere, it gets packed into some kind of super-ice, harder than diamond, and unnaturally heavy. Water elemental lords go into battle wearing suits of super-ice chain mail, and weilding super-ice-tipped tridents.
Or, you go back to the shrinking process in the first place. Where does the mass of the shrunken water go? Perhaps the excess mass is shunted off into an extradimensional space for the duration of the spell. Trying to restore the waters' original mass inside an unbreakable sphere is impossible, like teleporting into a solid object. So, all the water is shunted back into the extradimensional space instead, leaving a metal sphere filled with nothing but vacuum. What you do with that, I dunno.
It's impossible to really apply scientific principles to D&D magic, and it rarely results in any useful conclusions, but golly it can be fun...