El Mahdi
Muad'Dib of the Anauroch
Thats how i remember it, was just going to say that with a XP but it wouldn't let me. Apparently I have given you to much.
Covered it for you. I agree also.

Thats how i remember it, was just going to say that with a XP but it wouldn't let me. Apparently I have given you to much.
I claim that they could have given other companies the right to use the material with a time limit, a cancellation time frame if you will ("you have to stop using our rules in 3 years").
I also claim that people jumped on the 3rd edition train because they were tired of the old rules, the 3rd edition rules were good and people liked them. The content was there, support through the magazines was stable and campaigns like Eberron were a huge success. I would therefore guess that the amount of people who only wanted to play with the product of a third party publisher or otherwise not play 3rd edition at all is very limited.
I think you underestimate the benefits the creation of the OGL ecosystem had. Unfortunately WoTC failed to properly take full advantage of the ecosystem. The only material of theirs that I remember including any third party OGL material was their 3E Unearthed Arcana book.
I suspect if they had done it this way, then you would have had a lot fewer third party publishers and a lot less excitement about 3rd edition in the industry. You probably wouldn't have had Green Ronin and Freeport, Monte Cook's Malhavoc Press, Necromancer Games, Goodman Games, etc. And the game would have been the poorer for it.
I think you underestimate the benefits the creation of the OGL ecosystem had.
I would say that your first point that people would have upgraded to 3E even if it were not OGL is probably correct. 3E is a good system and I am pretty sure our group would have upgraded regardless.
However, the real question is, would all of these same people stuck with 3E if there was not that 3rd party ecosystem out there or would they have moved on to completely different game systems after a while with much less chance of coming back to WoTC because they were now playing GURPS, BRP or whatever as their primary game system.
I know that I purchased a lot of WoTC and a lot 3rd party 3.x/D20/OGL material over the years and I don't think I was alone in this.
I also know that the idea of the D&D game being released as open source (via the OGL) was a truly exciting thing for me and it earned a lot of goodwill from me. I work with Open Source software a lot through work and was involved in pushing some of our own software into an open source license so it strongly resonated with me. I kept buying Wizards gaming material even though much of it was mediocre (especially the many splat books) - mostly because of the general feeling of goodwill. That goodwill abruptly vanished with 4E when they tried the poison pill via the early drafts of the GSL.
Monster Manual 2 as well if I remember correctly (had a total of 2 monsters and a messed up section 15 I believe).
Why should WotC care about Green Ronin or Monte Cook after he stopped working for WotC? "The game" is not a holy grail. I find the notion of "We are all friends here" amusing. Where is the support of Green Ronin for 4E? It is a business decision that needs to be made. "We are all one big community, group hug" has nothing to do with it.
DnD worked fine without the OGL for a very long time. TSR failed because they did not produce products that people wanted to buy. But 3rd edition was a product that, after all these years of drought, people really really, I mean really, wanted to buy.
I think you overestimate the benefits of the OGL for WotC. The market was flooded with, let's put it mildly, suboptimal material which gave customers and retailers a hard time, because nobody would buy the stuff (problem for retailers) and you did not know which stuff was good enough to be bought (customer's problem). You can still find the most outrageous nonsense at the game convention here in Essen for less than a buck. And still nobody will buy it.
As I have said before, the magazines were going strong, the campaign books were successful. Plenty of reasons to keep playing 3rd edition. As far as I can see, many of them are still playing it now BECAUSE of the good products that Paizo puts out.
So did I. And it was good for the 3rd party publishers that we bought their stuff. But that does not mean that it was good for WotC. Again, would the situation have been soooo much different if they had worked with 3rd party publishers on a long term, but cancelable basis? I have many serious doubts. WotC either creates products strong enough to stand on their own. Or they fail trying. To hope for 3rd party support does not seem to be a reliable business strategy. And to give away their creation for free without ever being able to get it back is a very risky business decision.
We all like things for free, sure. But I will not buy a mediocre product if I cannot use or like the content. And I do not think that there are a lot of people who buy the stuff just because it has WotC on the front cover. If people had that kind of money to throw around we would not see the abundance of threads complaining about the price of DDI and what WotC should do to reduce the price or increase the quality of it's content.
Plus - but I have to do more research on that subject, because I am not a programmer or in the computer industry - I am very skeptical if you can really compare Open Source Software to a RPG OGL. I have to do more research on that to make up my mind.
I believe that as gamers, the game should be the holy grail. It's about the game, not about the business entities that market the game to us. Unless you're a shareholder of Hasbro, why are you so concerned about WoTC so much so that you put that concern ahead of your interest in the game? That I don't understand.
If the companies producing the game(s) we love seems to put the interests of the game first, then fantastic! We should be excited and happy. That's why what WoTC did with the OGL SRD was so great! And it's also why what Necromancer Games did with the Tome of Horrors, Green Ronin with the Advanced Bestiary, and Paizo with Pathfinder is so great. The OGL helps build communities which is good for gamers, and I would argue, good for all the companies involved, WoTC included. Wizard's problems only came about because of what they did in the transition to 4E.
And some of us really were interested in Freeport. And Ptolus. And the Scarred Lands. We played in those settings but still purchased the crunch books from WoTC because we were playing the same game.
Do you have evidence that 3rd party publishers actually _hurt_ Wizards of the Coast profits in the 3.x era?
Post-3E it is a different story, but there are lots of factors there as Steel Wolf laid out a while back. And WoTC could have taken better advantage of the OGL like Paizo does today.
Yea, well I did throw that kind of money around on WoTC books, minis, tiles, maps, etc. I don't anymore, but I did.
WotC wants to make a pirate campaign. Oh, wait, because of the OGL, Green Ronin already has one. What about a mega-city full of adventure? Oh, Mr. Cook came up with that after he left.
I actually doubt that.... we are discussing the effect of the OGL on WotC's ablitity to be successful with 4E. And I still argue that the OGL took a huge chunk out of that success.
...If people had that kind of money to throw around we would not see the abundance of threads complaining about the price of DDI and what WotC should do to reduce the price or increase the quality of it's content...