Synicism said:
This is patently false.
Throughout the 90s, RPG sales were in a tailspin. This trend had already begun before the rise of CCGs.
With RPG sales, there's less money in retailers' pockets to invest in new titles.
WotC buys TSR. d20 and 3e come along. RPG sales surge upward.
More sales -> more money in retailers' hands - > more extra cash to risk on fringe games.
If anything, d20 has provided an environment where a small, cult game has a much better chance of being picked up by retailers. If Shane's other thesis was correct, that retailers were desperate for non-d20 material, we should see a spike in sales of Little Fears, or Jade Claw, or whatever. Remember, game publishers sales are driven by sales to distributors, who in turn sell to stores. If stores really wanted non-d20 stuff to thrive, they'd start ordering it.
But that hasn't happened.
In essence, Shane's analysis makes no fundamental sense. More money in the hands of retailers from Whizkids and d20 means more buying power, means a readier market for other products. If there was demand for non-d20 stuff to break up the endless tide of d20, retailers would be buying it up quick.
But he's seeing reduced sales, right? What's up with that?
There's a curious phenomena in any business sector, one that is especially apparent in the RPG biz. People tend to surround themselves with others who share their views. If I think d20 is doomed, my friends probably feel the same way. Within that environment, my belief is strengthened, sometimes to the point that no amount of evidence to the contrary will ever shake that belief. Normal industries that feature Harvard and Stanford MBAs making decisions fall for the same trap. In RPGs, were there is precious, precious little business sense, the situation is even worse.
Nobody wants to hear that maybe their game isn't all that good, or maybe no one is interested in buying it, or that it's been mismanaged into the ground. It's a lot easier on the ego to cast blame on things like marketting, or the competition, or d20.
Another thing about d20: it's caused quite a bit of resentment amongst the gaming professionals who were in the business before it came along. Imagine working in RPGs, trying to make a living at it, and then seeing some whippersnapper come along and reap more profits in his first three products than you netted in the past three years. d20 made that possible. Quite a few of the established companies avoided d20, allowing lots of little guys with new companies to step into the market. One of the mantras running around in the industry right now is that new companies are B-A-D, since they cut the sales pie into ever-smaller pieces. People in the RPG biz are fundamentally afraid of competition. A lot of people have a sense that they're lucky to be in the position to be a published author or do something creative for a living. They don't want to lose that.
I think I'm pretty lucky to have broken into the RPG industry when I did. d20 touched off a revolution in game design. In essence, we've seen a popular uprising amongst gamers who started buying stuff that they actually want to read and use in their games. d20 has forced the industry to acknowledge that a book about the ecology of the hobgoblin or a supplement about dark elves is more popular and in higher demand amongst gamers than a pulp RPG or a game with a vast, detailed metaplot. For years, game designers dictated the products that made their way to store shelves. Now that d20 has opened up the window into what people really want to buy, it's gamers who pass that judgement.
Wow, did that get off topic.
Even as those products are weeded out, new publishers will fill in the ranks. I do think that it will be harder and harder for products (and companies) that are both NEW and GOOD to stand out and get attention. Hopefully that's where sites like EN World can play an important role.
