Shape of RPG Industry

[Glyfair]

Well, I have decided to make some search on Amazon Sales Rank of different RPGs. I know that the Rank changes a lot and it is not the best possible approach, but still it can provide some information about the industry I think.

The biggest problem with Amazon ranks is the "long tail" issue, IRRC. Once you get past the top 1,000 the sales are so low (at least during the period they are measuring) as to have very little value. If the top sellers are selling several hundred copies per week, items that sell in single digits per week aren't statistically significant.

Of the ones you mention the D&D PHB stands out quite a bit, the rest seem to be in a virtual tie (or maybe the 2-10 are tied and 11-20 are tied).

 

[jdrakeh]

Well, I have decided to make some search on Amazon Sales Rank of different RPGs. I know that the Rank changes a lot and it is not the best possible approach, but still it can provide some information about the industry I think. Feel free to comment.

Keep in mind that Amazon ratings only reflect Amazon sales (i.e., sales made through Amazon). In this regard, they're just next to useless for determining anything else. Additionally, they also encompass OOP products, new and used, etc.

C&GR numbers, OTOH, while still far from comprehensive are compiled based on feedback from stores worldwide (thus they tend to better reflect the popularity of games across the board). They also pertain only to currently in-print products.

There are other numbers out there compiled in a similar fashion, of course. Amazon numbers simply aren't very relevant to the current hobby industry as a whole.

 

[Victim]

Keep in mind that Amazon ratings only reflect Amazon sales (i.e., sales made through Amazon). In this regard, they're just next to useless for determining anything else. Additionally, they also encompass OOP products, new and used, etc.

C&GR numbers, OTOH, while still far from comprehensive are compiled based on feedback from stores worldwide (thus they tend to better reflect the popularity of games across the board). They also pertain only to currently in-print products.

There are other numbers out there compiled in a similar fashion, of course. Amazon numbers simply aren't very relevant to the current hobby industry as a whole.

On the other hand, does sales data specific to the hobby industry have any more significance when people can just buy products from Amazon, Borders and other major retailers?

 

[Owen K.C. Stephens]

Unfortunately, if someone doesn't make the sale himself, he has to guess. And publishers are loathe to share their numbers.

My perspective is always from the other end -- not what games are selling, but which lines are hiring. Since 2003, I've had fewer and fewer companies contact me about work, and less and less often do I have to turn someone down. Some of my wiritng is for games other than RPGs, and I'm actively working to expand my career outside of games entirely.

On the other hand, I still get at least one new company every year. I can still tie at least one major contract every year to my pressing flesh at Gen Con. And, I'm living in a bigger house than in 2003, and the bills are still getting paid.

None of that is definitive, but it's a viewpoint I rarely hear discussed so I thought I'd offer.

 

[jdrakeh]

On the other hand, does sales data specific to the hobby industry have any more significance when people can just buy products from Amazon, Borders and other major retailers?

The sales data I mention is collected from a wide range of game retailers, not specifically hobby shops (though the majority of brick and mortar stores that carry RPG books do tend to be hobby shops). It's still incomplete, as I mention above, but it's far more on point than Amazon-specifc sales figures that span nearly 30 years worth of both used books and out of print books, neither of which have a significant impact on the health of the hobby industry today

 

[Victim]

The sales data I mention is collected from a wide range of game retailers, not specifically hobby shops (though the majority of brick and mortar stores that carry RPG books do tend to be hobby shops). It's still incomplete, as I mention above, but it's far more on point than Amazon-specifc sales figures that span nearly 30 years worth of both used books and out of print books, neither of which have a significant impact on the health of the hobby industry today

The major book chains carry RPGs. Borders and Barnes & Noble aren't hobby stores. Ignoring the sales of major retail chains which have the potential to reach a far broader customer base than game and comic shops seems foolish.

 

[jdrakeh]

The major book chains carry RPGs. Borders and Barnes & Noble aren't hobby stores. Ignoring the sales of major retail chains which have the potential to reach a far broader customer base than game and comic shops seems foolish.

Read my posts again. I'm not citing data that ignores retail chains. In fact, I've twice specifically stated that the weakness of using Amazon numbers is that Amazon does this (ignores sales data generated by all sources other than Amazon), while C&GR and other report issuers specific to the hobby do not.

Again, Amazon ignores retail reports originating anywhere other than Amazon. C&GR (as well as other reporting agencies that deal speifically with game products) tries to include it. C&GR is, specifically, a Diamond/Alliance house organ that solicits reports from all retail outlets that it provides stock to. . . including several retail chains.

So, to recap. . .

Amazon gives you figures for Amazon sales only, which includes sales of OOP books, used books, etc. This is worthless for charting current hobby industry health based on sales data. It tells you what sells well at Amazon, but totally ignores all outside sales, while simultaneously lumping in old or used games with current releases for the purposes of tabulating product popularity at Amazon.

C&GR, as well as other hobby-specific data collectors, give you a broad sampling of sales figures as they pertain to the whole hobby industry (specifically including the retailers who sell games). These figures, while not wholly accurate, are far more useful than any Amazon sales report as they take into consideration sales figures from retailers worldwide and pertain only to current releases.

I honestly have no idea how to state it more clearly than I have here. Checking Amazon sales figures to get a look at how outside agencies are performing is like checking somebody else's bank account to figure your own net worth.

 

[Alnag]

Keep in mind that Amazon ratings only reflect Amazon sales (i.e., sales made through Amazon). In this regard, they're just next to useless for determining anything else. Additionally, they also encompass OOP products, new and used, etc.

Interesting. I would argue that if you had no reason to belive, that the Amazon customers have significantly different behavior than non-Amazon customers than the sample of Amazon sales could be taken at least partially seriously.

None of that is definitive, but it's a viewpoint I rarely hear discussed so I thought I'd offer.

Interesting. Based on what you said, I would guess that the evolution and survival of the fittest effect of RPGs continues.

The sales data I mention is collected from a wide range of game retailers, not specifically hobby shops...

Well, it is all about reliability and validity of the data collected. The data are valid, if they measure what we expect them to measure. If we expect that the amount of sold units represent the popularity of the game and its healt are we right or not? If we expect that data from hobby shops or game retailers or amazon represent well the whole amount of sold products are we right? One can simply sample 1000 people (or rather gamers in this case) to find out about popularity and it is the size of the sample expected to be high enough.

And yes, I am well aware of the fact Amazon sales are not the ultimate source of information on the health of RPG industry. On the other hand, have you got any other public available information resource on this item? Better something than nothing.

 

[Glyfair]

And yes, I am well aware of the fact Amazon sales are not the ultimate source of information on the health of RPG industry. On the other hand, have you got any other public available information resource on this item? Better something than nothing.

Not if the something is so misleading as to be worse than nothing. In this thread Ryan Dancey points out the issue with Amazon being in the Long Tail business and mentions that ranking below 1,000 has little to no bearing on sales elsewhere.

 

[eyebeams]

Last I knew, White Wolf had three full-time employees (this was in 2004/2005). At least one of those people has departed, to the best of my knowledge.

Uh, no. Though it is true that some people who are commonly assumed to be full time aren't, depending on what they're doing and whether it's being done remotely.