D&D 5E (2014) So How Long Will 5E Last For?

[S'mon]

My guess would be a 5.5 update that maintains compatibility as an Anniversary Edition in 2024.

 

[Krachek]

1. The -5/+10 feats.
2 feats fix don't required a new edition.

2. Bonus actions.
Was good until last week!

3. Saves at higher levels.
May worth attention.

4. The way ACs scale at high levels (Monsters start getting +10-+16 to hit, ACs, are still around 20).
Players got that too. Hitting more often make the game more dynamic. Still needing a 11 a higher level is a kind boring.

5. Some classes/archtypes.
Some are weaker, but they prove with the ranger that they can make change inside the edition.

6. Advantage.
A problem? Really?

7. Concentration mechanics
A good addition in 5th. I hope they will keep it in 6th.

8. Casting multiple spells per round
The wording of the rule is messy, but overall I don't see problems.

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*

 

[CydKnight]

When sales fall to levels pre-determined by WoTC to warrant a spark via a new Edition. That is my interpretation of Mearl's stating "when fan's ask for it".

 

[Oofta]

I think to a certain degree it may depend on how well the movie does.

HASBRO has tried several times now to leverage their intellectual property into mass market movies with mixed success. By most accounts, Marvel now makes more money from movies than from comics. If D&D movies are anywhere near as successful as the MCU then the books that we know and love just become a subsidiary of the D&D franchise. We might see action figures, but the majority of the profit wouldn't be coming from the sale of books anymore. The RP game could just be an advertising arm of the movie franchise.

There's no guarantee there will be more than one movie seeing how some fantasy based movies have fared, but I'm cautiously optimistic. It will be interesting to see how, or if, they impact the book side of the equation.

 

[bmfrosty]

I pretty much disagree with everything in the OP so I'm going to say ... no new edition in foreseeable future. I could see a book with a significant set of options that would change some things around and give people suggestions on how to tailor the game to their group.

It's pretty obvious they're working on a new book or two with new classes, feats and an expanded ruleset. But that's a long way from a new version.

I'm with you on this.

The following is IMHO of course. Mearls uttered the words 6E and of course this leads to speculation that they are working oin 6E or that 5E is not doing very well.

Now the problem is that online people tend to lean towards extremes. Generally there are posters who think that 5E is the best edition ever (personally its in my top 3, best ever doubtful), and that 5E is perfect and will last for 10-20 years or will be the last one.

Others have been predicting 5E will die a miserable whimpering death. This group is mostly 4E fans who were miffed 5E was not 4.5.

SOme people claim 5E is the best selling D&D ever (its not), but it has probably outsold the other editions since 2003.

Another example would be some posters who think 5E is perfect mechanically where there are holes starting to be found and they have been contradicted by Mearls when they argue things like RAI vs RAW. Off the top of my head there are a few mechanical issues 5E has.

1. The -5/+10 feats

Ok. These can get pretty ridiculous, but nothing a DM can't handle. They could also be deprecated?

2. Bonus actions

I don't know where these are a problem. They seem to do a really good job managing the action economy.

3. Saves at higher levels

What's wrong with them?

4. The way ACs scale at high levels (Monsters start getting +10-+16 to hit, ACs, are still around 20)

You expect ancient dragons to pull their punches?

5. Some classes/archtypes

They can't be supplemented/deprecated?

6. Advantage

What's wrong with it?

7. Concentration mechanics

What's wrong with it?

8. Casting multiple spells per round

What's wrong with it?

Some of these effects are underpowered, overpowered, maybe broken, or just complicated.

WotC has indicated they are gonna be moving away from the AP type adventures and that 6E will land when the players want it (AKA when 5E sales decline).

So how long will 5E last.

The bare minimum if they started designing 6E tomorrow would be 6 years. I do not expect this.

In it lasts a decade or more that is great but only 3/7 D&Ds have done this (1E, 2E and BECMI). I would put 10 years at the upper limit. 3E in all its various forms has lasted 17 years, this is coming close to BECMI's 19 year record (if you count Paizo's Pathfinder as 3.x).

No WoTC D&D has lasted more than 5 years in print, 8 if you count 3.0+3.5.

So if I was a betting man (I'm not BTW) I would expect 5E to last in the 8-10 year range. 6E will come eventually when that will be IDK.

Personally I hope that at the 10 year mark they release a new revision of 5 with new rule books that consolidate a bunch of what comes out between 2014 and then.

 

[Kramodlog]

There is "edition switch" fatigue right now. Over the last 17 years there has been 5 editions of D&D (3e, 3.5, 3.75 aka Pathfinder, 4e and 5e). That is about an edition per 3.4 years. People want some stability and avoid the conflicts that come with new editions. Because of this 5e will probably last as longer or a bit longer than 3e/3.5 (8 years). But, after a while there will be edition fatigue. People will want something new, something that solve rule problems, etc. And Hasbro is a business. It wants cash and nothing brings in more cash than new core books. I can't see the edition lasting more than 10 years.

 

[Thurmas]

I said this in a previous thread a few days ago, but...I see no need for a 6th edition anytime soon. 5E is going strong with very few issues. I would expect and appreciate a PHB 5.5 in a couple years, but nothing beyond that. It would be a very simple matter to print a 5.5 PHB that fixes the existing issues, such as classes (ranger, sorcerer), feats (two weapon fighting, -5/+10) or spells (a little less concentration would be nice for example, or make some spells that lack scaling scale) and clarifies the rules issues while keeping the entire thing backwards compatible with all of the other existing books and materials. You wouldn't have to replace any other book or product except the PHB.

Plus, at that point people are going to need to replace a worn out PHB anyway. I know several people that could stand to do that already.

 

[MechaTarrasque]

I think to a certain degree it may depend on how well the movie does.

HASBRO has tried several times now to leverage their intellectual property into mass market movies with mixed success. By most accounts, Marvel now makes more money from movies than from comics. If D&D movies are anywhere near as successful as the MCU then the books that we know and love just become a subsidiary of the D&D franchise. We might see action figures, but the majority of the profit wouldn't be coming from the sale of books anymore. The RP game could just be an advertising arm of the movie franchise.

There's no guarantee there will be more than one movie seeing how some fantasy based movies have fared, but I'm cautiously optimistic. It will be interesting to see how, or if, they impact the book side of the equation.

I agree. I think Hasbro will clamp down on any new edition until after the first movie to avoid headlines (or Internet mockery) that the game is in rocky shape when the movie comes out. Maybe after the movie, but if so, it will be to make the game more like the movie.

The other thing to think about 6e is that ever since 3.5, WotC has been working to make the game easier for DM's, which often means more streamlined, and easier for new players (which 5e showed us means less combos). I suspect that 6e will be more of that, not less--think more concentration effects (I wouldn't be surprised if every class/subclass was concentrating on something pretty much the entire fight), less action types, and don't expect any armies of zombies or summoned critters (I think they have sellers remorse about what they currently have).

 

[Corwin]

I wonder if MM knew in advance his innocuous little comment was surely going to work all the internet posting hand-wringers into a fervor...