CaptainChaos said:
But we hear from publisher all the time about the d20 market is a shadow of its former self.
This, in and of istelf, does not help one decide, though. If the d20 market has shrunk because the entire rpg market is a shadow of its former self, moving into a sub-niche becomes an even worse move, in a business sense.
When running a game, I pick a systemt hat does what I want it to do at the table, in terms of flavor, setting, probabilities, forms of tension, and so on. d20 works for soem things, but not for others.
Same, then, goes for game design - you work with a different system when d20 doesnt do the job. Of course, if the job you want to do is not popular enough, your new game will flop. And if you dont market it well (and good marketing is difficult), your new game will flop. And if you don't get good distribution, your new game will flop...
Many things go into success of a game that have absolutely nothing to do with the game's design. Most of those things tend to push one back to doing d20, as a business matter.