Sony aims for comeback win with PS3

[Mallus]

Too bad the PS3 console looks so friggin ugly, and it's HUGE.

I like the PS3's sleek, Foreman grill from the retro-future look...

 

[drothgery]

Why is the Wii selling well? Cheaper price point - no other reason. But it is the games sales which matter. That's where the money is - not the consoles. The consoles are a loss leader to get a customer on the road to buying the games.

As I repeat every time someone posts something along these lines, that's simply not true. The only console that ever achieved significant market share while being sold at a loss for most of its lifetime (or all of its lifetime) was the original Xbox, and no one lacking Microsoft's deep pockets would have kept the original Xbox around for 4 years while taking the losses they did.

Nintendo has never sold a console at a loss. The PS1 was never sold at a loss, and neither was the SMS or Genesis. The Saturn and Dreamcast were, but were complete failures. The PS2 was initially sold at a small loss, but was profitable by its second year. The Xbox 360 was initially sold at a loss, but breaks even or makes money for MS right now (depending on the SKU; the Arcade about breaks even, while the Elite is highly profitable because a 120 GB 2.5" hard drive and an HDMI cable don't cost anywhere near $170 at retail, let alone at wholesale when MS buys them). The PS3 is still being sold at a significant loss.

You can't make money in the console business by taking a beating on the hardware. If you do, you won't be in the console business very long unless you have other ways of making money.

 

[drothgery]

Halfway through with the PS3 only being out for a year? No way. It's closer to the 3rd inning at this point. We won't be able to judge the 360 vs the PS3 for at least 2-3 more years. Too much is changing in the industry to really know right now.

Err... yeah. Or, after this month we're effectively halfway through, anyway. Because that's two holiday seasons for the PS3 and Wii, and 3 for the Xbox 360. So game publishers are making decisions based on how the consoles actually have sold, not on how they thought they were going to sell. And if the PS3 doesn't make up a lot of ground this holiday season, they're looking at a landscape where the PS3 has half the installed base of the other two consoles. Which pretty much means no new PS3 exclusives without funding from Sony; when the last of the games that were started before the PS3 launch hit (most notably FFXIII and MGS4), that'll be it. And that means nothing to drive customers to the PS3, because Sony just can't get in a serious price war with Microsoft; they have a console that's more expensive to produce, and their non-console profits are much lower, so they can't afford big losses for extended periods.

Which means this generation of the console wars is over for Sony unless they can make significant gains on MS and Nintendo this holiday season. And they're not going to.

 

[John Crichton]

Which means this generation of the console wars is over for Sony unless they can make significant gains on MS and Nintendo this holiday season. And they're not going to.

I can't get behind this thinking. Sony is going for a much longer console cycle than Microsoft and they have better hardware to do so. And they have history on their side. The PS2 is still going strong into it's 7th year. Microsoft will be looking to release another console in about 2-3 years they way things look. Sony has no such plans and even if their 10 year plan doesn't pan out, I think 6-7 is certainly possible. Devs haven't touched what the PS3 can do yet just like what happened with the PS2.

The real trends haven't come close to being fully developed yet. The PS3 just started the game when they made the console available for $400. After a few excellent exclusives hit the system, then we'll see where things stand. They may not change at all.

And the HD market can't be ignored much longer. This should be the last holiday season where BR & HD-DVD won't be a huge factor as prices plummet on HD hardware across the board. The only machine capable of taking advantage right out of the box of all this tech is the PS3 at the lowest price.

Then again, I've been saying all this since before the PS3 came out. Just trying to stay consistent.

 

[Vocenoctum]

Is that true for Nintendo though? It's my understanding that they *make* money on hardware sales, in significant quantities.

I think one of the big problems for the Wii is that the games aren't doing that well. The attach rate isn't very good last I saw, and a lot of that is probably the extra contoller with game. (I forget the name.) First party titles are taking the lions share of what extra IS sold, and a lot of the games being made for the Wii right now are basically party game throw aways.

I think a lot of people bought the Wii and play Wii Sports and that's it.

So, the console is profitable, and the division is profitable, but I'm not so sure the system will last very long overall.

 

[Vocenoctum]

I can't get behind this thinking. Sony is going for a much longer console cycle than Microsoft and they have better hardware to do so. And they have history on their side.

It's funny really, but whenever a Sony rep trots out the "ten year plan", it's used to explain why their system is not doing well. Is the PS3 capable of making it 10 years? Maybe, but who knows what the market will be for then, so who can tell.

It might make it 10 years and lose money every year.

Microsoft will be looking to release another console in about 2-3 years they way things look.

I think MS is looking to extend the lifespan somewhat for the 360, and it's possible incremental upgrades would take the place of wholesale changes. At some point I expect "HD required" games and an HD-DVD internal, but it may be 2-3 years down the line.

The real trends haven't come close to being fully developed yet. The PS3 just started the game when they made the console available for $400. After a few excellent exclusives hit the system, then we'll see where things stand. They may not change at all.

The problem is, how much longer for this ground breaking exclusive? Will anyone care by that point?

And the HD market can't be ignored much longer. This should be the last holiday season where BR & HD-DVD won't be a huge factor as prices plummet on HD hardware across the board. The only machine capable of taking advantage right out of the box of all this tech is the PS3 at the lowest price.

I think the PS3 has been a great boost to BluRay, but I don't think BluRay has been a boost for the PS3. I doubt many folks bought the PS3 to play BluRay discs, though some certainly did. I'm sure more bought the PS3, and then figured they'd buy Blu Rays to get the most from it.

I think next Christmas will be a turning point for HD's, but heck, who can tell.

Then again, I've been saying all this since before the PS3 came out. Just trying to stay consistent.

True, and for some features it's just a matter of time, but for some stuff (the "killer game" being the lead), you just have to wonder how long you can say "any day now!" without looking goofy.

 

[John Crichton]

I think one of the big problems for the Wii is that the games aren't doing that well. The attach rate isn't very good last I saw, and a lot of that is probably the extra contoller with game. (I forget the name.) First party titles are taking the lions share of what extra IS sold, and a lot of the games being made for the Wii right now are basically party game throw aways.

I think a lot of people bought the Wii and play Wii Sports and that's it.

So, the console is profitable, and the division is profitable, but I'm not so sure the system will last very long overall.

This has been my concern all along. I really hope the system gets more games out besides the regular Nintendo AAA stuff and party games. We already had that system last generation. I haven't even turned mine on in 2 months.

 

[Ranger REG]

So, the console is profitable, and the division is profitable, but I'm not so sure the system will last very long overall.

Not until LucasArts makes a Wii-compatble lightsaber duel game.

 

[Vocenoctum]

For the 10 year cycle, I think the problem is this;
1) The BluRay of today will probably not be the BluRay of 5 years from now. With a change in lasers (differing depths), it will muddy the waters of the PS3's "blu ray advantage".
2a) The 360 model changes are mostly consistent within the SKU's. The mother board is the same, for instance. Changes may come with die-shrinks, but it's a universal thing.
2b) The PS3 does no. The 20 and 60 models may have been the same board, but different cases and hardware. The 80 and 40 are different MB's, different cases, different hardware... it's a bad way to SKU things I think. They don't have a very unified methodology IMO.

 

[Vocenoctum]

This has been my concern all along. I really hope the system gets more games out besides the regular Nintendo AAA stuff and party games. We already had that system last generation. I haven't even turned mine on in 2 months.

I had a Cube, some fun games on it, but I'm no Mario Fanboi, so it was a temporary purchase. I wanted a Wii, until I saw the party games that dominate it.

I may not be the target audience, but I think the folks that buy for the party game are not long term folks. Soon all these homes will have Wiis and they'll only be dragged out for more drunken wii bowling...