ender_wiggin said:Actually, the chance of success should be significantly higher than 50%. For example, an invoker at 1st level with a 16 int should have +7 to evocation. Plus a feat for the specialization, and that would increase it to about +10. Thus, to make the DC 16 check, he simply has to roll a 6 or higher. Now, even if he fails, he can retry at a DC 17; rolling 7 or higher. The chance of failure is (1/4)*(3/10)=(3/40)=(8.5%). At that's just 1st level, where the "spells-per-day" would say he has 2 1st level spells. To cast his second spell (assuming he had to fudge the first one), he has to roll an 8 or higher. If he fails, he has to roll 9 or higher. Chance of failure is (7/20)*(2/5)=(14/100)=(14%). It is very very likely that he will get the two spells off.
Once you get to wizards of higher level, it seems as though the DCs get somewhat out of hand. A 10th level wizard that empties his repritoire of higher level spells (3rd through 5th at 3/3/2), would have to make something in the range of a DC47 check to cast a 1st level spell thereafter. Considering you'd only get a base 13 ranks assuming you had filled up that particular skill, you'd need another 14 to even take a 20 on casting. Regardless, I know that my gaming group would really dislike it even if their fully decked out character (I'd assume that under your scenario, the only thing that could be closer to perfect at 1st level would be an 18 intelligence instead) would still only be able to get a second spell of 6 out of 7 times.
I think that it should be guaranteed most of the time, but if you can get beyond that it should be fine imo...