The listed explanation for VP/WP's problems is kind of wacky, since it's out of context compared to other lethality benchmarks. A 40% chance of death by level 20 due to dumb luck? As opposed to what, exactly? There are a lot of flukey ways to die before 20th level. I bet that if someone actually crunched the numbers, that the chance of a typical D20 PC surviving to level 20 is actually probably close to zero if we don't count GM intervention.
This is really a signal that when it comes to some design issues some things just can't be practically tested with typical players and that when it comes to these things, designers go on gut feeling. Now Star Wars has a death spiral and that's supposed to be good. Previously, the in-house design position was that death spirals sucked and that hit points with random instant death thanks to MDT was a better design, but now that somebody figured out how to make it look native to D20 the tune changes. In short, nobody's opinions about death spirals, VP/WP or massive damage actually counted for much in the first place. They were all clever designs that could not be adequately playtested and were just tossed out there on a hunch, with post hoc justifications for why they were decent ideas.
This is really a signal that when it comes to some design issues some things just can't be practically tested with typical players and that when it comes to these things, designers go on gut feeling. Now Star Wars has a death spiral and that's supposed to be good. Previously, the in-house design position was that death spirals sucked and that hit points with random instant death thanks to MDT was a better design, but now that somebody figured out how to make it look native to D20 the tune changes. In short, nobody's opinions about death spirals, VP/WP or massive damage actually counted for much in the first place. They were all clever designs that could not be adequately playtested and were just tossed out there on a hunch, with post hoc justifications for why they were decent ideas.