D&D 5E (2014) Survivor Legendary Monsters: EVIL DRAGONS WIN!

[dave2008]

Aboleth 22
Adult/Ancient Chromatic (Evil) Dragon 23
Adult/Ancient Metallic (Good) Dragon 6
Beholder 26
Death Tyrant 22
Demilich 14
Dracolich 23
Elder Brain 19
Kraken 24
Lich 23
Mummy Lord 19
Vampire 16

The demi lich rises!

Imaculata - you can't vote twice on the same day. I will make the correction.

 

[dave2008]

Aboleth 22
Adult/Ancient Chromatic (Evil) Dragon 23
Adult/Ancient Metallic (Good) Dragon 7 +2 = 9.
Beholder 26
Death Tyrant 22
Demilich 12 -1 = 11.
Dracolich 23
Elder Brain 19
Kraken 24
Lich 23
Mummy Lord 19
Vampire 16
[MENTION=6801286]Imaculata[/MENTION] - this is the correction from your 2x vote (after Ed's vote). Does this look correct?

 

[Lanefan]

I hope the correction's correct as I'm voting from its numbers...

Aboleth 22
Adult/Ancient Chromatic (Evil) Dragon 23
Adult/Ancient Metallic (Good) Dragon 7
Beholder 26
Death Tyrant 22
Demilich 11
Dracolich 24
Elder Brain 19
Kraken 24
Lich 23
Mummy Lord 19
Vampire 16

 

[Imaculata]

[MENTION=6801286]Imaculata[/MENTION] - this is the correction from your 2x vote (after Ed's vote). Does this look correct?

Yup, apologies folks.

 

[dave2008]

Yup, apologies folks.

No worries! I was worried I had overstepped - depending on where you are it could have been different days I guess

 

[Harzel]

Aboleth 22
Adult/Ancient Chromatic (Evil) Dragon 23
Adult/Ancient Metallic (Good) Dragon 8
Beholder 26
Death Tyrant 22
Demilich 9
Dracolich 24
Elder Brain 19
Kraken 24
Lich 23
Mummy Lord 19
Vampire 16

 

[Harzel]

I'm sure someone will do the maths...but not me.

Bother! Now you've made me think about it. And, embarrassingly, a simple answer doesn't seem that hard.

Assuming voting is distributed uniformly across the existing survivors, I guess the chances would be 1/(13*12) = 1/156, or about 0.6%. Uniform distribution is probably a fairly poor assumption, though, since some contestants seem to attract more attention than others at any given time. Not sure what effect that has in this case.

EDIT: Although I didn't account for the fact that it was also a cross-post, which is what made it stand out. Those are uncommon, but not rare, let's estimate it is 1/20 (i.e., a crit fail ). That would bring it down to 1/3120 or about 0.03%. So, yeah, I guess that was somewhat remarkable, but not entirely unexpected over all Survivor threads.

EDIT2: And that all assumes that choice of up-vote, choice of down-vote, and cross-posting are all independent. Probably fair for cross-posting vs the choices; up-vote vs. down-vote probably not so much.

 

[Maxperson]

Aboleth 22
Adult/Ancient Chromatic (Evil) Dragon 21
Adult/Ancient Metallic (Good) Dragon 8
Beholder 26
Death Tyrant 22
Demilich 9
Dracolich 24
Elder Brain 19
Kraken 24
Lich 24
Mummy Lord 19
Vampire 16

 

[rgoodbb]

That would bring it down to 1/3120 or about 0.03%.

Funny. I got exactly the same numbers........

 

[rgoodbb]

Aboleth 22
Adult/Ancient Chromatic (Evil) Dragon 21
Adult/Ancient Metallic (Good) Dragon 8
Beholder 27
Death Tyrant 22
Demilich 9
Dracolich 24
Elder Brain 19
Kraken 24
Lich 24
Mummy Lord 19
Vampire 14