Tell Me About The Miniatures Industry

[barsoomcore]

Hey, thanks, folks. This is great, I really appreciate your thoughts.

It sounds like there's a bit of a divide between "collectors" and "players", with most folks on this thread more on the player side. I noticed that WizKids has introduced a couple of new lines -- Baseball and Pirates -- but that they don't SEEM to be taking off in a big way. Is my impression accurate?

The impression seems to be that collectible toys have a limited market potential. Interesting. How long -- I guess if WizKids is starting to struggle now, that means they had something like three years of strong growth, is that right? I know GW is posting very strong results over the past four years, and it looks like they're only just starting to take off in North America.

The encouraging view is that it's an industry where there's a fair chunk of change to be made. Interesting.

BelenUmeria: I run software development teams. My background is in QA but after a few years of running QA teams I'm now looking to move into either project or full-on development management. Very open to relocating -- but I'm Canadian so there is a bit of a hurdle with respect to working in the States. Not insurmountable but there you are.

Thanks again, folks! Keep it coming.

 

[diaglo]

I know GW is posting very strong results over the past four years, and it looks like they're only just starting to take off in North America.

i bought stuff from Games Workshop back in the 80's.

i'll never buy anything from WizKids.

i had minis before i ever played D&D. i am a wargamer first.

if you want to know what floats an old wargamer's boat. it is good quality minis at a reasonable price.

but ones i can see before i purchase. ones i know that i like, are to the scale i use, that have the weapons and armament i want, etc...

 

[mmadsen]

As I understand it, a few key factors shape the miniatures industry. First, miniatures require either (a) a cheap mold (low fixed cost) and lots of metal (high marginal cost), or (b) an expensive mold (high fixed cost) and lots of plastic (low marginal cost). Second, miniatures are an inventory nightmare.

 

[pogre]

Insight into the miniatures market is very difficult unless we know whether you are discussing pewter or plastic/ pre-painted or "plain." The start-up costs for Wizkids (WK) style plastic figs is significant - it's one of the reasons WK uses varying paint styles on the different poses - creating the figure molds is expensive. Start-up for pewter is much less so - a decent small set-up could be done easily for $12,000.00 or so.

The cost of tin is on the rise and shows no signs of slowing. Tin is a major component of the pewter used to create most modern metal miniatures. Even the ever-reasonably priced Reaper figures are going for a minimum of $3.99 retail. I do not know much about the plastics market - I never buy them, but they are made of materials that are not significantly increasing in price currently.

The major player is Games Workshop, period. The second tier is Reaper, Rackham, Foundry, Old Glory, and others. Privateer Press has a hot game right now, but it remains to be seen whether they can maintain meaningful sales for over a year.

Games Workshop is rebounding from sales slumps from the last couple of years. They are tightening their corporate structure and continue to agressively market their goods outside of the traditional channels. They want people in the "Games Workshop hobby", not to promote miniatures in general. The interesting thing to me is that most of their designers are great guys who are really historical enthusiasts and just do the fantasy and sci-fi to pay the bills.

 

[Desdichado]

The impression seems to be that collectible toys have a limited market potential. Interesting. How long -- I guess if WizKids is starting to struggle now, that means they had something like three years of strong growth, is that right? I know GW is posting very strong results over the past four years, and it looks like they're only just starting to take off in North America.

GW's been heavily marketing North America for at least ten years; I was picking up White Dwarfs before I was married and seeing their listing of corporate stores. What they have done more of, at least in the last five or so years, is in opening corporate stores as opposed to "licensed" independent retailers who happen to stock their stuff. There's at least three in my metro area alone.

Also not sure where you're seeing those financial results. Not that I've looked at them recently, but I know GW was struggling with earnings at least a year or two ago, and had been for at least a couple of years prior to that. I think GW is still struggling to figure out what their business model is; and I think it's no coincidence that they're strongly pushing for licenses for their IP in the computer games realm lately.

Privateer seems to be on the rise, but how sustainable that model is is anyone's guess. They're essentially a mom and pop operation that's hit the (relative) big time by having a simple, easy to play game, and tapping into a new, up-and-coming genre; fantasy steampunk.

pogre, I don't know what plastics GW and other toy manufacturers use, but all the plastics in my industry are sure seeing price increases. AFAIK, most industrial plastics and resins are petroleum based, and have been hit pretty hard in recent years by oil prices.

And lastly, I actually happen to work with a bunch of software development people, oddly enough, in my current job. I could always poke around for openings if you have any interest whatsoever. We have a fair amount of Canadians working at our company, many of them actually live in Windsor and cross over the bridge every morning to come in to work, but I'm not sure I'd recommend that. Sounds like quite a hassle.

 

[kenobi65]

It sounds like there's a bit of a divide between "collectors" and "players", with most folks on this thread more on the player side. I noticed that WizKids has introduced a couple of new lines -- Baseball and Pirates -- but that they don't SEEM to be taking off in a big way. Is my impression accurate?

I'm not sure about the WizKids baseball game, but Pirates of the Spanish Main is pretty hot at the moment. Then again, I think they did a short first print run, since they weren't sure what to expect, but PotSM packs have been consistently hard to come by, and were rationed (4 to a person) at Wizard World Chicago and GenCon.

And, I've heard that HeroClix (esp. the Marvel releases) is also doing pretty well for them.

But, when you start comparing a WizKids, to a GW, to a Reaper, it's important to recognize that each of these companies is probably serving a different kind of audience (though I'm certain there's some overlap), with different kinds of products.

 

[kenobi65]

One other thought, more about the gaming business than miniatures per se.

I wish I knew who originally said this:
"The best way to make a small fortune in the gaming industry is to start out with a large fortune."

In other words -- if you're looking at this business opportunity from the standpoint of doing what you love to do, great. If you're looking for a good, paying job...well, this might be it, but you need to understand that the odds are not gonna be with you.

Yeah, there may be "a fair chunk of change" out there, but the lion's share is undoubtedly controlled by the big players. There's a ton of little guys in the gaming industry, and, from everything I've always read, nearly all of them are making very little money.

There's always a chance that your idea will be lightning in a bottle, and you'll sell a ton (see: Magic the Gathering, Mage Knight, etc.). But, those are the exceptions to the rule. Based on what I've read in threads on ENWorld about PDFs, 200 copies is considered a pretty good-selling third-party d20 PDF. That's it.

I hate to be discouraging, but the odds of this being a big money-making opportunity just aren't that good.

 

[barsoomcore]

Also not sure where you're seeing those financial results.

They're online:

http://investor.games-workshop.com/Results2004/fiveyear.htm

Obviously slanted for investors, but there's clear revenue increase over the past five years, along with profit increase. Most of their money remains in Europe and GB, but they claim to be planning further inroads into North America. It's pretty interesting reading, in the way that incredibly dull crap becomes interesting when you're actually considering getting involved.

I could always poke around for openings if you have any interest whatsoever.

I have some interest whatsoever. Let me know if you come across anything. I've got a resume online here:

http://homepage.mac.com/coreyr/Resume.html

Thanks!

And thanks to everyone contributing. This is very useful information for me.

 

[barsoomcore]

And thanks for the reality check, kenobi65. This isn't really anything like what you're picturing, I don't think. It's not really in the "gaming industry" per se. Hard to explain. Once we have a business plan in place (and assuming the business plan doesn't say, "This is a really stupid idea") and have figured out what our patents are going to be, I'll be able to say more. Right now it's just three guys with an idea and enough spare time to be able to poke at it.

I come from a proud tradition of failed entrepreneurs -- my father has "retired" with something close to $200,000 worth of debt on his shoulders due to his failed businesses and investments. His father was a trumpet player who ended up working in a boarding house in northern Alberta.

So spectacular failure (and getting canned) run in my family. We may not have much business sense, but we sure don't have any luck, either.

 

[Saqhara]

Where abouts do you live? I'm in Calgary myself and have lots of connections in IT....