A pretty tenuous link to an elven invasion, though I guess it would have become more had we inquired along that line.
Colmarr wasn't there for events in the next two paragraphs, so I just ignored them (hence why they were lost in the server crash). I've got the recap you did about when they went with Mery though, but I've never read until now due to the fact Colmarr wasn't there, and that's the best piece of information we had to indicate the elves might be about to invade.
As for a few elves being in town, that hardly makes me think of invasion. For all we know, the elves might try to cause such unrest periodically just to keep the other races weary of them. Considering though we found out about most of what the guards mentioned, without any mention of elves, and we knew the cause of the lights over the water, it seemed to me like the fears of a few superstitious guards at best.
Anyway, apart from the reference to elves in the Captain's thoughts in your first post, the recap, and an OOC reference to elves, dark elves, and the undead, I only count sixteen references to elves in my entire log before we found out directly about the invasion. Very few of which relate to the invasion in any but the vaguest terms.
The elven references I found break down as follows:
The four references you mentioned in your post: two from the bartender; two from the town guards.
Three in references to either Colmarr's bardic or cultural knowledge: two about the weather they encountered, which led to Colmarr's reference below; one about Cellador when they were talking to Dietrich.
Five references by party members: one by Colmarr about the weather they encountered; two by Magyar about magic and strange events; two by Braer used to describe his build and a tune he's humming.
Four other references by NPCs: one from Robert Begnam in a reference to where some of his rare items come from; three from Dietrich when he's trying to sell the key and map, related the source of the items or places he mentions.
So to conclude, with everything Colmarr knew, I think his muttered,
“Why are we always the last ones to know,” quite appropriate.
