Now that is an interesting question, which I was wondering if anyone would ask!Does the Wizard have the option to NOT play the token when firing the Lightning Bolt underwater and having a metagame event happen or is he effectively restricted to rules-first adjudication in that instance?
I think the best answer is "yes, but . . ." - this would be a page 42 matter, with the player of the wizard having to make a skill check (presumably Arcana as the default, but it might depend on the details of the fictional situation) to vary the spell in this sort of way.
I'll concede that it's a curious form of "metagame token" that by default you're obliged to play.
I fluctuate between confidence and confusion in my conceptoin of the suggested play for 4e. I don't think it's fully fiction first, but it has elements of fiction first (because I don't see how page 42, together with associated commentary such as creative use of cantrips, could work otherwise). But as the above discussion of the mandatory metagame token shows, it has a strong metagame dimension which can push in the direction of rules-based - I'm not sure I'm getting your terminology quite right, but I would say that to the extent that 4e is rules-based, it's rules-based with an expectation that an explicating narrative of the relevant fictional causes will be provided - I'm not sure if this makes sense in your schema, or if I've just describe metagame-based rather than rules-based.From memory of 4e, it isn't the suggested play.
As for the overall orientation of play - if it's not meant to be narrative first, then I'm not sure what it is for. In spite of some superficial appearances, I don't think that 4e suits challenge/"step on up" play all that well, although I know some other posters around here think differently. And it doesn't really seemed aimed at exploration - or rather, if you use it as an exploration vehicle (letting the GM and the setting - which would have to be considerably enriched compared to the core books - do all the narrative/thematic work) then the dice-rolling objection is going to rear its head again. Because the players won't have much that is meaningful to do other than roll their dice and add a little bit of colour and characterisation.