The market dying?

[Vigilance]

MMORPGs are mainly concerned with busy-work and competition. 100s of hours grinding exp in some dungeon, sitting there and pulling creatures methodically to your group, to gain a level. And then when you've got those levels, you can spend another 100 hours gaining keys to the dungeon where high-level loot drops. And then when you get those keys, you can spend months in that dungeon trying to farm out the premium armor and weapons, but only if you can muster raid parties of 60 people for hours on end. Oh and every step of the way, you're up against other players trying to get the same limited resource. The boss mob which drops 1 key per kill, and only spawns once a week, for example. Those creatures dropping the high-end loot in the keyed dungeon? They're a week respawn too. Etc etc.

Quoted for truth.

Diablo is closer to the RPG experience than EQ imo. At least in Diablo you were adventuring and moving through a loosely structured plot, not sitting around waiting for monsters to spawn, fighting them, rinsing and repeating so that you could afford some materials to sit in town and work on your backpack-making skills for 8 hours.

EQ was the first game where I had a job I hated IN GAME.

I think I lasted about 6 weeks before the wow factor wore off and I realized I was just bored.

Chuck

 

[eyebeams]

Why can't he? Simply because it doesn't prove the hobby is dying?
So, any evidence that contradicts your view is simply wrong or wishful thinking?

Actually, it's because book trade returns take quite a long time to happen after an order. But if it makes you feel better to assume my position comes from being a mean man who hates teh D&D, I suppose that has at least as much merit as many of the other sentimental arguments here.

 

[Psion]

Um, no, they're not 'true words'. Rather, it's a silly generalization. Nothing more.

Silly generalization, eh?

It rings very true to me. Having observed the repeated death knells of the hobby on the internet, and the repeated lack of dying.

 

[Rasyr]

Yes, actually, they are. Each week in our department meeting, the brand team gives us an overview of the last week of sales. We also hear monthly overviews of how other parts of the company are doing.

That doesn't sound very useful. I could see how monthly reports might be interesting but devoting attention each week to the previous week's sales seems like a waste of valuable time. It sounds like the company is far too focused on the short-term health of the brand -- especially if they're bothering everyone in the department with sales numbers on a weekly basis.

Weekly? Once, I worked for an internet startup. We used to get monthly updates and such just as described above. Then there was a smaller group who got weekly updates. They got these weekly updates because the management thought that there were problems and was trying to find solutions for those problems. Not saying that that is what is happening here, but it does sound like there are similarities.

Also, as a developer I don't "crank out my assigned module units." I'm not assigned module units. I'm a developer, not a designer.

A developer, not a designer, huh? Makes me wonder what you are "developing"? Could it be? Nope! Won't say it! But it does give one food for thought....

 

[eyebeams]

Silly generalization, eh?

It rings very true to me. Having observed the repeated death knells of the hobby on the internet, and the repeated lack of dying.

Very few comments about declining sales have equalled "death," but I suppose it's easier to defeat a strawman, 'innit?

 

[eyebeams]

Makes me wonder what you are "developing"? Could it be? Nope! Won't say it! But it does give one food for thought....

WotC would be shoddy for not having at least finished a working outline for 4e at this point.

 

[philreed]

WotC would be shoddy for not having at least finished a working outline for 4e at this point.

Agreed. I suspect they've got more than one document floating around that deals with 4e. At this point the discussions probably involve more marketing decisions/ideas than design-related issues.

 

[Psion]

Very few comments about declining sales have equalled "death," but I suppose it's easier to defeat a strawman, 'innit?

What's the title of this thread, now? Very many comments may not equal death, but certainly there have been some histrionics over the scale of the contractions. Otherwise the word "dying" would not have been invoked in the very title of this thread.

If you are suggesting that I am suggesitng that a death cult exists positing an actual and immediate total cesation of publishing RPGs, then YOU are the one who is guilty of strawmanning.

 

[jcfiala]

(In response to "I like Palladium. The books are large, informative and affordable.")

You would be the exception, then.

There's probably a number of exceptions. I can't really point to any Palladium book (that I own) and say 'This book was a waste of my money'. They are packed with interesting ideas, and they're written for a system that is fairly understandable. They may act wierdly in play, but as references for other systems you get a big chunk of interesting ideas.

I'm not currently playing a Palladium game, but I enjoyed Palladium Fantasy back in College, and I've found a few good PF books to read. I take my time before buying them, and sometimes pick them up used or on clearance, but I do buy them.

They are large - I can see that holding them. They are affordable - Are there any that cost more than $30? And if you're careful about buying your books - as you should be with any RPG book - they are informative. There are a number of serious reviews of Palladium books on rpg.net, for instance, that are quite positive.

 

[GVDammerung]

Silly generalization, eh?

It rings very true to me. Having observed the repeated death knells of the hobby on the internet, and the repeated lack of dying.

Very few comments about declining sales have equalled "death," but I suppose it's easier to defeat a strawman, 'innit?

Relative to 1982? It's in a coma. Relative to 2000? It's in a 'rough patch'.
Whether the market is 'in decline' depends on the time scale involved.

I think the above sums it up pretty well.

1) Few, if any, are saying the RPG hobby is in its final death throws. They are rather noting a significant down turn and a pattern of down turns.

2) Such a down turn, and pattern of such, is quite noticeable if one looks at long term trends. 3E created a dot.com like RPG bubble that has now largely burst. The return is not to a healthy status quo but to a declining hobby.

The decline is gradual over time, and may be momentarily abated by the likes of a 3E, but it is a decline. Mearls "death-cults" are, in fact, noting a historic trend. For the pollyannas, that the hobby hasn't died completely is "proof" that it is not and never has been in trouble but that is flawed, zero-sum thinking. A slow decline is still a decline and over the long term is troublesome, even while there will be bright spots now and again.

While the decline may find D&D last, it will eventually find it. Wotc will then need to "reinvent" the hobby to buck the declining trend line, 3E being the perhaps perfect example of a temporary propping up.

The model appears to be - decline, decline, decline, decline, PROPUP EVENT, decline, decline, decline, decline, PROPUP EVENT, decline, decline, decline, decline, PROPUP EVENT etc.

As Akrasia has noted, D&D is far from its glory days, even while it is not yet taken to its sick bed. This distinction seems to escape the "doing fine" set, who want instead to focus on "dead or not dead" black or white. It is rather a darkening shade of gray, IMO.