The market dying?

[DaveMage]

The 6 million came up this year from last years marketing study, together with the claim of continual growth. If someone has the search function, he should be able to find it on this board somewhere.

I found this, which was quoted off of the amazon.com listing for D&D for Dummies (Link) :

Market research indicates that 4 million American males, ages 8 to 45, play Dungeons & Dragons, while 7.6 million who haven’t played say they want to learn how. The popularity of recent sci-fi and fantasy movies has also boosted interest. D&D is complex to learn, and this friendly guide helps the curious locate a game, understand the rules, choose or create a character, follow proper game etiquette, and even move up in the hierarchy to become a Dungeon Master. The four-page foldout cheat sheet will include markers and a model dungeon layout that serves as an actual game board, allowing readers to play using this book and nothing else.

And then Charles Ryan confirms that this is a US only figure here:
http://boards1.wizards.com/showthread.php?p=5061177#post5061177

 

[Umbran]

I assume that you're joking, right? The estimates I've heard range around 1.7 million.

I believe the 1.7 million number comes from the only market research results that I know of that WotC has allowed into reasonably wide release - but those numbers are, iirc, from back in 1999, and thus do not include any growth from 3e.

 

[Numion]

No, I think D&D is a remarkably successful brand. Sometimes, that success even rubs off on the RPG of the same name

So, the D&D branded stuff in the 80's was an indicator of D&D's popularity, but the branded stuff of today isn't?

 

[eyebeams]

I thought you were the author of that direction in the thread; you pointing at the presence or lack of toys seemed to indicate that brand presence was an indicia of strength of the line. If that's not what you were after, just what were you getting at?

The stuff in the 80s made money that went right back to the company that made D&D and could be said to be a part of its success. The swath of stuff that makes money now from the brand is much more economically detached, with the exception of books and miniatures.

Therefore, if you want to lump these things in with the game of D&D (as Joe Kushner did), you have to be aware of their relative circumstances.

Furthermore, D&D's early popularity was directly related to playing the game. 80s advertisements existed for the actual game, not just spinoffs.

 

[eyebeams]

Okay, I agree on this point. Being too successful is often a problem, because the connection to the actual product gets lost, like with Coca Cola or Kleenex. It's like with "RPG" and "Dungeon & Dragons", which works at least in this way, though obviously not the other way round.

This leads to the question, how would an advertisement for D&D, the game, have to look like? Does it make sense to launch ads at all?

D&D For Dummies is basically an ad for the game. Any campaign would need to explain what it is. It would also have to abstract actual table play, just the way that boardgame ads don't really show you play -- just the impression of enjoying play.

It would also require an introductory game, which WotC has, but it would need to build up to full participation in the D&D game, which WotC's game doesn't do. That's the big difference between it and the successive boxed sets TSR used for D&D. They didn't render the first box obsolete.

 

[Turjan]

You and I know (at least I hope you know) how exciting RPGs can be. But how can you convey that. RPGs aren't much of a spectator sport.

Now that you mention this I have to think of this painful D&D TV ad someone was linking last week. Those people were a tad too excited .

If it was easy to place an ad in the right medium with a good ratio of expense and expected return, Hasbro would have already done this, I suppose.

 

[Turjan]

I found this, which was quoted off of the amazon.com listing for D&D for Dummies (Link) :

And then Charles Ryan confirms that this is a US only figure here:
http://boards1.wizards.com/showthread.php?p=5061177#post5061177

Ah, thanks . So it's 4 million regular players in the US alone what he said. Here's a direct link to the post.

I also noticed that i's always nearly the same people in these threads .

 

[Turjan]

D&D For Dummies is basically an ad for the game. Any campaign would need to explain what it is. It would also have to abstract actual table play, just the way that boardgame ads don't really show you play -- just the impression of enjoying play.

Look at this commercial: Dungeons & Dragons
It's too funny !

It would also require an introductory game, which WotC has, but it would need to build up to full participation in the D&D game, which WotC's game doesn't do. That's the big difference between it and the successive boxed sets TSR used for D&D. They didn't render the first box obsolete.

This was one complaint with the 3.0 box, though only a minor one. The dice, the counters and the terrain were reusable. My main complaint was the very limited usefulness of the box itself. A tad bit more support would have been desirable.

 

[Pramas]

Ah, thanks . So it's 4 million regular players in the US alone what he said.

Yep, and that sounds great until you realize the other "dirty secret" of D&D: only a fraction of those 4 million buy any D&D products. If even 5% of those people bought every D&D release, the D&D business would be frickin' great. If 10% did, it'd be utterly fantastic. They don't though and that's the rub. Many players don't even buy a current PHB and a fair number are still playing with the same old edition books they've had for 10 or 20 years.

For the sake of comparison, let's look at World of Warcraft, which has over 4 million world wide subscribers, each one of whom pays monthly to play. Quite a difference to the bottom line.

 

[Turjan]

Yep, and that sounds great until you realize the other "dirty secret" of D&D: only a fraction of those 4 million buy any D&D products.

That's right, I already mentioned that further up. I don't think you publish pen & paper RPGs because you think it's the best business model ever. I think you do it because you like RPGs and try to make a living of those. I'd be interested to know what they tell Hasbro all the time .