The market dying?

[Turjan]

I wopnder how many though use the SRDs or illegal copies to play?

I gave a copy of the Sovelior/Sage SRD on CD to my players, so that the one who is pretty skint has something to work with. For the organization of your spells it's much nicer than the book, anyway. This means this player will be one of those without book.

 

[DaveMage]

Average unit sales for the entirety of 2004 hovered around the mid-70 mark. In October of 2004, they rose to a nearly-respectable 119 units. Since then however:

October 2004: 119 units
November 2004: 90 units
December 2004: 102 units
January 2005: 82 units
February 2005: 70 units
March 2005: 69 units
April 2005: 40 units
May 2005: 35 units
June 2005: 32 units

That's a massive drop.

I think, though, even though things seem to be down (and probably are), one needs to compare like months from year to year to have a complete analysis. I would think that sales might pick up after Gen*Con - especially in September - when a lot of new products hit the shelves. Do you have the numbers for the 12 months prior to this? That way we could compare June 04 to June 05, etc.

 

[Akrasia]

3 million according to this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/3655627.stm

(27th or so paragraph.)

Also from that article:

'At the height of its popularity in the 1980s the game became a target for cultural conservatives.' (My emphasis.)

and

'D&D's popularity began to wane in the early 1990s as the videogame boom began.
"D&D never went away," says Liz Schuh, marketing director for Wizards of the Coast. "It was huge in the 1980s and then dropped off the radar screens but it never went away."
"D&D was so successful that it spawned an industry that ate it," says Mr King.'

and

'But the game remains - even thrives. Wizards estimates that three million people play in the US each month.'

So assuming that the claims cited in the article are correct (and the author appears to rely primarily on WotC for information), the overall picture appears to be that while no longer at the height of its popularity (which occurred in the 1980s), it is nonetheless 'thriving'.

 

[Akrasia]

.... Many players don't even buy a current PHB and a fair number are still playing with the same old edition books they've had for 10 or 20 years. ...

I made the point earlier in this thread that RPGs are somewhat unique in that players never need a new product once they own the core rules. Many players never 'upgrade' to new editions, etc. Apparently there are large 'shadow communities' of gamers who play OOP RPGs (1e AD&D, RC D&D, Runequest, MERP, etc.). This feature of RPGs must have some impact on the long-term economic viability of the industry.

 

[Akrasia]

"4 million American males, ages 8 to 45, play Dungeons & Dragons,"
I wonder how many females play.

Around 5.

 

[Turjan]

This feature of RPGs must have some impact on the long-term economic viability of the industry.

I don't think that it must have an impact. Most of the time it's a question of age. It's like how many people stop buying pop music when the reach a certain age, and some time later they listen to radio stations with the "music of the 70's, 80's..." or something similar. This doesn't affect the music industry, either.

The main question is whether new people come into the hobby, preferrably the "younger generations". They usually spend loads of cash on hobbies and like to try everything. That's exactly the right customer for most hobby industries.

 

[Akrasia]

I don't think that it must have an impact. Most of the time it's a question of age. It's like how many people stop buying pop music when the reach a certain age, and some time later they listen to radio stations with the "music of the 70's, 80's..." or something similar. This doesn't affect the music industry, either.

The main question is whether new people come into the hobby, preferrably the "younger generations". They usually spend loads of cash on hobbies and like to try everything. That's exactly the right customer for most hobby industries.

Rather than refuting my claim, you've just described the impact the phenomenon I described does have: older gamers don't buy (or buy less of) the new stuff. This might be fine for pop music -- that industry is entirely focused on the 15-30 demographic, and has been since its emergence. But the gaming population itself is greying. If the market you're trying to serve is getting older, and older people buy less new stuff, that's an 'impact'.

 

[Thorin Stoutfoot]

Average unit sales for the entirety of 2004 hovered around the mid-70 mark. In October of 2004, they rose to a nearly-respectable 119 units. Since then however:

October 2004: 119 units
November 2004: 90 units
December 2004: 102 units
January 2005: 82 units
February 2005: 70 units
March 2005: 69 units
April 2005: 40 units
May 2005: 35 units
June 2005: 32 units

That's a massive drop. Yes, it's coming from stores that are volunteering the info...but then again, the participating stores represent some of those that are most serious about the business, and so can reasonably be assumed to represent AT LEAST the average, if not an example of a superior store.

Things are hurtin', kids. No lie.

Looks a lot like seasonal variation to me. Most retailers have numbers that drop during the year and then pick up again during Christmas season. Many retailers will tell you that they lose money 10 months out of the year and make it back up between Thanksgiving and New Year's. That's why all the official government statistics (jobs, GDP, etc) are "seasonally adjusted."

Unless you've got statistics that compare year over year numbers for the same month, you might simply be crying that the sky is falling just because people out travelling for summer vacations don't play (or buy) RPGs. (I know I suspended RPG activities during the summer for that very reason)

 

[BryonD]

Just to give non-industry folks a glimpse at the reports that we see:

The September 2005 issue of COMICS & GAMES RETAILER contains sales reports as of June 2005. Now, admittedly, these numbers are flawed, since they are a self-selecting survey. However, they are the only numbers we have, and are useful for extrapolating larger trends.

C&GR averages reported figures across all stores in the sample to show a raw per-store average number of units sold of each RPG product line.

In June of 2005, the average store reporting sold at least 32 units for the month (i.e. 32 individual RPG products, for the entire month), for an average gross revenue of $850.

For the month.

Average unit sales for the entirety of 2004 hovered around the mid-70 mark. In October of 2004, they rose to a nearly-respectable 119 units. Since then however:

October 2004: 119 units
November 2004: 90 units
December 2004: 102 units
January 2005: 82 units
February 2005: 70 units
March 2005: 69 units
April 2005: 40 units
May 2005: 35 units
June 2005: 32 units

That's a massive drop. Yes, it's coming from stores that are volunteering the info...but then again, the participating stores represent some of those that are most serious about the business, and so can reasonably be assumed to represent AT LEAST the average, if not an example of a superior store.

Things are hurtin', kids. No lie.

First of all: That's a slump.
If you want to say that there is a slump out there and the smaller publishers are getting pinched by it, then I agree 100%.
But extending the last year's trend to say that the glory days are past and the sky is falling is going way to far.

I'm sympathetic for the small publishers trying to weather this storm. But I think insiders get lost in their own little world and really lose the big picture.

Things are not hurting. Not to me. Not one bit.
I'm not a publisher. I'm a consumer.
I've got lots of great stuff.
And if I want to go buy something new tonight, there is plenty for me to pick from.
What more could I possibly ask for? I've got it on a silver platter, so don't try to tell me it's hurting.

You've done some good stuff and I don't want to see you fail.
But you might. (I don't have a clue, just speaking in general)
But if a slump drives you under, it won't mean much at all in the scheme of things.
Three years from now when I want to buy a new game product, somebody WILL be out there waiting to sell it to me.
That's little comfort to you. To you that would be a major loss. But the market will emerge from this slump with or without you.
I think a lot of insiders get so (rightly) focused on their own personal here and now that they (wrongly) assign that to the big picture.

The past six+ years have been an awesome time to be a gamer. And that's continuing into the future.
Maybe the past six+ months haven't been such a good time to be a game publisher.
I'm sorry, but it happens. There are booms and there are busts. That cycle may define the market, but one end of the pendulum doesn't begin to.

If you'd told me in the 80s that I'd have this level of options and support for my gaming, I'd have said you were DREAMING. This is awesome.

 

[Turjan]

Rather than refuting my claim, you've just described the impact the phenomenon I described does have: older gamers don't buy (or buy less of) the new stuff. This might be fine for pop music -- that industry is entirely focused on the 15-30 demographic, and has been since its emergence. But the gaming population itself is greying. If the market you're trying to serve is getting older, and older people buy less new stuff, that's an 'impact'.

I refuted this claim:

I made the point earlier in this thread that RPGs are somewhat unique in that players never need a new product once they own the core rules... This feature of RPGs must have some impact on the long-term economic viability of the industry.

I still refute it, because that's the same with most hobby industries, with some exceptions (like model railways, which are usually too expensive for younger people without approprate income). It's not the feature of the product you mentioned, the indestructible manual, that leads to the decline of the hobby, because music CDs are equally indestructible. It's the inability to win young customers. That's something different from what you claimed.