The market dying?
- Thread starter JoeGKushner
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Hussar said:
I never expect computer games to replace miniatures (or high-end boardgames). People that play minis games are buying the toys (especially those that are buying the randomized, pre-painted pieces). While a computer game can replace the game play it can never replace the toy value of miniatures.
One of the reasons boardgames, for example, are praised when they're loaded down with bits and pieces is the toy value. Having little things to play with is very important to a lot of people, even if they don't realize it.
MongooseMatt said:
...so I'll rely instead on the years from 1995-2004 when I worked exclusively in the print business, including handling the sales of two different companies, and the years 1988-1994, when I worked at the distribution and retail levels of the industry.
MongooseMatt said:
On this, at least, we agree.
Thorin Stoutfoot said:
I've got monthly statistics in C&GR going back to 1997 (when they didn't have "GAMES" in their title), and they produce an annual yearly summary of the game business as well.
In fact, each issue provides a graph with the tracking going back quite some time. The current issue shows the trends back to July of 2001....and, because obviously I'm going to continue to get nay-sayers unless I provide the info:
7-01: 93
8-01: 131
9-01: 107
10-01: 75
11-01: 88
12-01: 107
1-02: 86
2-02: 77
3-02: 67
4-02: 86
5-02: 108
6-02: 94
7-02: 72
8-02: 76
9-02: 73
10-02: 63
11-02: 56
12-02: 52
1-03: 66
2-03: 63
3-03: 60
4-03: 62
5-03: 58
6-03: 70
7-03: 81
8-03: 61
9-03: 60
10-03: 59
11-03: 66
12-03: 75
1-04: 80
2-04: 68
3-04: 77
4-04: 74
5-04: 74
6-04: 75
7-04: 78
8-04: 61
9-04: 63
10-04: 119
11-04: 90
12-04: 102
1-05: 82
2-05: 70
3-05: 69
4-05: 40
5-05: 35
6-05: 32
I could go back into earlier issues, but really...that should be enough for you.
DaveMage
Slumbering in Tsar
From those numbers I notice two things:
1) There seems to be only 1 bad quarter (2nd quarter 05). The first quarter of this year is compatible to last year's. Of course if Q3 is as bad as Q2, then there might be a trend.
2) There does not seem to be a spike in the numbers in Summer/Fall 2003 with the release of v3.5. I find that odd. I understand that 3.5 may not have done as well as the release of 3.0, but shouldn't there at least be a small spike if the numbers are reflective of the RPG industry?
1) There seems to be only 1 bad quarter (2nd quarter 05). The first quarter of this year is compatible to last year's. Of course if Q3 is as bad as Q2, then there might be a trend.
2) There does not seem to be a spike in the numbers in Summer/Fall 2003 with the release of v3.5. I find that odd. I understand that 3.5 may not have done as well as the release of 3.0, but shouldn't there at least be a small spike if the numbers are reflective of the RPG industry?
Here is the same data in a slightly easier to read format.
Code:
[u][b]2001 2002 2003 2004 2005[/b][/u]
[b]January [/b]86 66 80 82
[b]February [/b]77 63 68 70
[b]March [/b]67 60 77 69
[b]April [/b]86 62 74 40
[b]May [/b]108 58 74 35
[b]June [/b]94 70 75 32
[b]July [/b]93 72 81 78
[b]August [/b]131 76 61 61
[b]September [/b]107 73 60 63
[b]October [/b]75 63 59 119
[b]November [/b]88 56 66 90
[b]December [/b]107 52 75 102
BryonD
Hero
Looking at that data makes the "sky is falling" seem even more of an over-reaction than before.
For one thing, I'm surprised to note the lack of the steady decline over four years. After 01 that data becomes quite reasonably stable.
In 4Q 04 you had a spike. I don't recall any talk about how wonderful things were then.
If you take the last three quarters your average is just barely below the 2002 forward average.
Yeah, the last one quarter is a slump.
In the big picture scheme of things: shrug
For one thing, I'm surprised to note the lack of the steady decline over four years. After 01 that data becomes quite reasonably stable.
In 4Q 04 you had a spike. I don't recall any talk about how wonderful things were then.
If you take the last three quarters your average is just barely below the 2002 forward average.
Yeah, the last one quarter is a slump.
In the big picture scheme of things: shrug
.
GVDammerung
First Post
GMSkarka said:
These numbers, to me, well document a slow but noticeable decline. I am also surprised at just how low these numbers are overall. The numbers, I think, obviously do not tell the entire story but they just as obviously, I believe, tell part of it. I return to the "canary in the coalmine" metaphor.
Mongoose Matt's information is most welcome and appreciated but I read it as speaking of DOLLARS _ NOT_ GAMERS. It is the number of gamers, which I think is at issue. Dollars, as a mere consumer, I find of interest only to the extent they provide some insight into the number of gamers.
I have been gaming since the 1970's. I remember the go-go gaming of the 80's. It is entirely unscientific and unquantifiable (by me) but I can say that in my personal experience the gamer vibe is nothing now like it was in the 80's. Maybe there are vast hordes of new gamers now buying RPGs, in my experience then they must all be living in their parents basements, ordering from Amazon and Dominoes and reading, not playing, the game materials. With more disposable income and the will to make the time to play, I'm still not seeing these hordes. Gencon attendance, which might argue the other way, is not seeing huge increases of gamers but is relatively flat around the mid 20's each year, and what is more represents the hardest of the hardcore, the last to go.
I don't suppose, it matters much to Joe Consumer whether or not the hobby is growing, stagnating or declining in the near term. As someone said, and rightly so, this is a "golden age" in terms of quality product availability. I agree. And I have enough game material to game for at least 3 lifetimes if I never buy another thing. What concerns me, however, is the future of the hobby and what I see as a failure in some parts to acknowledge that everything is not universally peachy. I am particularly concerned when smaller d20 publishers start to feel a squeeze as they produce a great deal of the D&D material I find most interesting.
I can go along, I suppose, with the "I've got mine" thought but I married a gamer and will always have someone with whom to game. Others, who have "got theres" now, may find they have only themselves to play with in 20 years, if they are still around. 20 years only seems like a long time if you havn't already been playing for longer. 2005 is by no measure I can see like 1985 in terms of number of gamers and excitement about the game. There has been in my experience a noticeable decline. Its not the end of the world but it is a decline, IME.
GVDammerung
First Post
Please pardon me, but NO ONE I see is claiming "the sky is falling" except those erecting strawmen that they then proceed to knock over. What is being said is that there is a DECLINE. A DECLINE is _not_ the same as "the sky is falling." If one cannot discuss matters without unfairly categorizing the statements of others using such hyperbole . . . well, you may draw you own conclusions about they and their position.
Yes, it's a steady decline. The years previous had regularly higher figures.
Nobody is saying "the sky is falling", despite the continued attempts on the part of the happy-shiny-nothing-is-wrong-with-my-hobby-lalalalalICANTHEARYOU crowd to portray the position as such.
What *is* being said is that the market is in an obvious decline.
"You have no proof" They say.
"Here."
"Well...uh...it's obviously just a recent slump, chicken-little!"
Whatever.
Nobody is saying "the sky is falling", despite the continued attempts on the part of the happy-shiny-nothing-is-wrong-with-my-hobby-lalalalalICANTHEARYOU crowd to portray the position as such.
What *is* being said is that the market is in an obvious decline.
"You have no proof" They say.
"Here."
"Well...uh...it's obviously just a recent slump, chicken-little!"
Whatever.
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