The market dying?

[BryonD]

Fair enough. I can readily agree to agree that there is enough hyperbole to go around, on all sides.

Works for me. I'll not be one to claim one-side only here.

I would like to offer that my appreciation of the size or "biggness" of the deal is relative to the appraisal of the situation by those d20 D&D publishers who have come along to note that they have some measure of concern at present. Unscientific. Personal, with my liking of the products these d20 D&D publishers produce. But there you have it. The sky may not be falling but if some of my more favorite d20 D&D publishers will publically express concern, I will by turns think there is something to be concerned about. That Wotc has everything as rosy is all well and good but I buy far more product from non-Wotc publishers than Wotc. Should the number of d20 publishers suffer for a "contraction" or whatgaveyou, I would be distressed as I like regularly seeing their products readily available to me without incident or interruption. On a grander stage, "canary in the coalmine?"

I certainly agree that somebody trying to get to the next quarter and still be in business is going to have a different point of view. But that's really my point. My company might die here is not at all the same as The Market is in Severe Decline. (or whatever phrase is acceptable to all parties).

I disagree with your canary in a coal mine idea, however.
Contractions are good for the market in the long run.
Sometimes you gotta let the weakers players fall away.

If there are two companies for which I am a fanboy it is Green Ronin and Bad Axe.
One of the bigger rocks in the 3rd party scene and a 1 man show, so night and day there.
If Ben decides Bad Axe isn't worth the effort, it'll go. That would kinda suck.
But only kinda. Because if 6 months later Ben wants to crank something out, when the market turns back, he can just do it.

Green Ronin is much more likely to weather the storm. But, there is certainly luck and many other factors that have nothing to do with quality of end product that can make a company o down. And these times are when its most likely to hit. So lets assume that the unlikely happens and Green Ronin crashes. That would kinda suck. But only kinda. Because the guys cranking out material there are really good. Like, notably above average good. Unless they choose to pursue other paths, these guys will have options. Somebody with average quality writers will "adjust" their staff. Or a new game company will appear 6 months later.

Is any of this magic wand guarantees? No on your life. Crap happens and we have to live with it. But if there is a weeding out, 90% of those left standing will be the best ones who were willing to keep dealing with the market.



As an aside, next time some insider complains that RPG stuff is to cheap, I'm going to point them to this thread. Not that I mind in the least what people charge. Price what the market will bear and get rich guys. No sarcasm in the slightest, I want it to happen. But the gamer market is fickle and is in competition with people who will just about write for free to just know that they are doing it. It don't compare to other markets. And if you're afraid of the long term trend, then askign for more money might not be the best foundation.

 

[BryonD]

If they get less reports, the variance is most probably higher, as Numion pointed out.

Anyway. The main point is that you cannot compare the data from before the method switch to the data from after the method switch. It's not permissible to estimate any trend from data that stretch over the point where the method of data acquisition was switched.

Hmm, I just caught up to this. Good point there.

 

[siege72]

How is Palladium successful if everyone hates their games?

I know this is late and tangential, but I don't hate Palladium games. I just can't stand the company and its *ahem* leadership.

 

[GMSkarka]

Apparently its not just a slump and the hobby is in need of being "saved".

You quoted my sarcastic slap at another poster as proof of hyperbole? Compare it to everything else I've said in this thread...."which of these things belongs together..."

Holy Reading Comprehension, Batman....I would've thought that I was obviously being sarcastic in that post, but I guess not....

 

[KaosDevice]

It is my feeling that we're in a cyclical down tread in this industry (much to do with the burnout of d20) along with some major new factors pulling at our customers purse strings:

- Gas Prices
- World of Warcraft
- Disasters and Charity
[/email]

Bing! I think non-game related money concerns may be the hugest part of this whole picture. Games (in spite of what some on the board may think ) are luxury items after all.

 

[wingsandsword]

There has certainly been some more reasonable data presented from both sides. But I think you are being overly forgiving of one side here.
There has been a lot of comments that are talkign about decade long trends and implying (if not outright stating) that it is all coming to a head right now. I think that is well over the top. It is a slump. It happens.

Not to mention the claims that computer games and VR will lead to the death of tabletop RPG's soon, the claims that young people aren't interested in tabletop games anymore so the hobby will soon die off without fresh blood, the claims that sales have dropped so sharply and so quickly that the market is less than half the size it was only a few years ago. There have been plenty of predictions of either imminent doom, or distant but inevitable doom in this thread.

There are problems with the current distribution model of tabletop roleplaying games, this leads to a pinch at the retailer level, and is putting a squeeze on smaller companies. This is not killing the industry.

There may be a general downward trend in sales in RPG's. All industries have up and down trends. A rough overall economy, high gas prices, and rising production costs hurt the industry.

Neither of these problems is a critical, mortal blow to RPG's that means the market is "dying". My posts have been all about showing that the hobby will be here in a decade, or decades from now (if they've gone afield of that, it was me getting off my intended topic). Some existing companies will doubtless fold, the distribution models may change (I don't think the FLGS is entirely doomed, but there will doubtless be fewer of them), and the overall play style and philosophy will certainly change (a typical new gamer now has pretty different expectations of what the Fantasy genre is than one from 25 years ago, see the "Who is Lieber" thread), but in another 30 years people will be still sitting down and slinging dice and pouring through gaming books, looking over their character sheets and playing heroes and adventurers in a roleplaying game. D&D will almost certainly be the flagship, but there will be a constellation of less successful and lesser known games each with a small but highly loyal fanbase.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

Bing! I think non-game related money concerns may be the hugest part of this whole picture. Games (in spite of what some on the board may think ) are luxury items after all.

That's a dirty lie and you know it! Take it back or we'll vote you off ENWorld!!

 

[BryonD]

You quoted my sarcastic slap at another poster as proof of hyperbole? Compare it to everything else I've said in this thread...."which of these things belongs together..."

Holy Reading Comprehension, Batman....I would've thought that I was obviously being sarcastic in that post, but I guess not....

It was clear that you were being sarcastic. Further, the specific sarcastic point was that the other poster had NOT achieved these things.

Sometimes reading comprehension is limited by the quality of the writing, Robin.

 

[smcrey]

Gaming items are definitely a luxury item. I have a wife and 2 children who i have to look after and they come first before any gaming purchases. in regards to what i purchase, i have been extremely loyal to the Dungeons and Dragons brand for eighteen years. if it has Dungeons and Dragons on it then i buy it. the d20 market has made some great games, but they tend to go against some canonical elements of Dungeons and Dragons. i am not a fan of pdfs for the simple fact that i do not have a hard copy at my disposal. if they would produce actual books out of the pdfs, then it would create interest to me. I would like to thank all of the publishers and enworld members who are Passionate and responsible enough to worry about the RPG market. Kudos! just my 2 cents.

 

[GMSkarka]

A rough overall economy, high gas prices, and rising production costs hurt the industry.

Part of the problem is that until we entered the 21st century, common wisdom was that the industry was recession-proof, as it had thrived through the economic downturns that had previously occurred.