The market dying?

[TFJ3]

I wonder if, based on these numbers, what we're seeing isn't as much a general decline of the industry as much as the beginning of the end of the FLGS.

Late 1Q2005 was the first time locally (Atlanta, GA) I've seen major booksellers like B&N and Borders all properly stocking D&D and a handful of other RPGs. During the same period of time our oldest FLGS (well stocked/run store in business for over 28 years) saw their sales plummet and closed down at the end of August. I would wonder if that sort of thing is happening in other markets as well and is therefore what is causing those C&GR numbers to drop so rapidly.

If this is what's happening, I guess what we'll see in fairly short order (12-24 months) is that companies which can't sell through major booksellers will either have to make a transition to direct sales or pdf or go under. This isn't to say the FLGS will vanish entirely, but rather that there won't be enough of them to be primary source of sales for a given product. (Which actually as I look at decisions made by publishers like Hero Games and Guardians of Order, may well be what's happening already.) This would also logically lead to an increasing number of high-priced products where the publisher has to move less units to make the same profit. (Which again may already be what's happening resulting in products like the Wilderlands boxed set and Ptolus.)

 

[Vigilance]

I wonder if, based on these numbers, what we're seeing isn't as much a general decline of the industry as much as the beginning of the end of the FLGS.

Late 1Q2005 was the first time locally (Atlanta, GA) I've seen major booksellers like B&N and Borders all properly stocking D&D and a handful of other RPGs. During the same period of time our oldest FLGS (well stocked/run store in business for over 28 years) saw their sales plummet and closed down at the end of August. I would wonder if that sort of thing is happening in other markets as well and is therefore what is causing those C&GR numbers to drop so rapidly.

If this is what's happening, I guess what we'll see in fairly short order (12-24 months) is that companies which can't sell through major booksellers will either have to make a transition to direct sales or pdf or go under. This isn't to say the FLGS will vanish entirely, but rather that there won't be enough of them to be primary source of sales for a given product. (Which actually as I look at decisions made by publishers like Hero Games and Guardians of Order, may well be what's happening already.) This would also logically lead to an increasing number of high-priced products where the publisher has to move less units to make the same profit. (Which again may already be what's happening resulting in products like the Wilderlands boxed set and Ptolus.)

This is a good insight.

Id also add to this the lovely and wonderful fact that when you're a small publisher a lot of time distributors just dont even bother to pay you. That factors in companies' decisions to try and avoid the distribution chain as much as possible as well.

Chuck

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

Late 1Q2005 was the first time locally (Atlanta, GA) I've seen major booksellers like B&N and Borders all properly stocking D&D and a handful of other RPGs.

I lived up in Woodstock, GA for about 9 years...the nearby B&N in Kennesaw has carried RPG books for as long as I can remember. In fact, pretty much all the bookstores always have. Media Play even does. So this isn't really anything THAT new.

 

[TFJ3]

I lived up in Woodstock, GA for about 9 years...the nearby B&N in Kennesaw has carried RPG books for as long as I can remember. In fact, pretty much all the bookstores always have. Media Play even does. So this isn't really anything THAT new.

Actually, then they were the exception rather than the rule. Most (and I had actually thought all) of the B&N stores in the metro area made a decision in the mid-late 90's to completely quit carrying RPGs as they were seen a high-shrinkage, low-profit item. (Knew someone who worked as a manager at the Dunwoody one back then.) They started bringing them back in 2004, but even then they were only carrying the core rule books and no supplements. At the same time stores like Borders, which already carried RPGs (though only WotC & White Wolf), have now gone so far as to add branded shelving prominently displaying (face-out) D&D products. They've also started picking up additional lines such as the new Warhammer Fantasy RPG, which while they've had the odd core rulebook for another RPG from time to time, is the first time I've seen them actually stocking an entire line which wasn't produced by White Wolf or WotC.

 

[Ankh-Morpork Guard]

Actually, then they were the exception rather than the rule. Most (and I had actually thought all) of the B&N stores in the metro area made a decision in the mid-late 90's to completely quit carrying RPGs as they were seen a high-shrinkage, low-profit item. (Knew someone who worked as a manager at the Dunwoody one back then.) They started bringing them back in 2004, but even then they were only carrying the core rule books and no supplements. At the same time stores like Borders, which already carried RPGs (though only WotC & White Wolf), have now gone so far as to add branded shelving prominently displaying (face-out) D&D products. They've also started picking up additional lines such as the new Warhammer Fantasy RPG, which while they've had the odd core rulebook for another RPG from time to time, is the first time I've seen them actually stocking an entire line which wasn't produced by White Wolf or WotC.

Hmm...well, its not just Georgia that I've found non-gaming stores to have been carrying RPGs for a while. Here in G'ville, FL, I've been able to find RPG books all over the place for years. There IS the possibility that that's because this is a college town, but still, IME, book stores carrying RPGs really isn't very new at all(especially not 2005 new).

EDIT: Oh, and welcome to the boards!

 

[Vigilance]

Originally Posted by Pramas
Sorry, but that's a bunch of bull. What we've seen over the past decade, in fact, is the shifting of more and more of the risk to the manufacturer. The pre-order system is completely broken, so every print run done is just a guess. Distributors, who used to buy up a six month supply of a good title, don't want more than a couple of week's worth on hand. They'd rather do it "just in time", which can often lead to lost sales. Neither retailers nor distributors want to take much risk, and yet every year we hear the usual complaints from retailers about manufacturers selling direct at cons and online.

I think the distributors are the biggest problem right now, at least from my admittedly biased perspective.

The only serious bump in the road RPGO has experienced lately in this "shrinking market" hasn't been from a decline in sales, its been from a distributor who didn't pay us.

Chuck

 

[drothgery]

I lived up in Woodstock, GA for about 9 years...the nearby B&N in Kennesaw has carried RPG books for as long as I can remember. In fact, pretty much all the bookstores always have. Media Play even does. So this isn't really anything THAT new.

When I lived in upstate NY (~5-15 years ago), the local Borders and B&N stores I went to never carried RPG books (though Media Play and Waldenbooks did); here in San Diego, the B&N-owned or affiliated Bookstar (which is the closest big box bookstore, and the only one I ever go to; I buy 99% of my books -- both fiction and RPG -- from Amazon) had an almost non-existent RPG section (basically the D&D core books and the Vampire core books stuffed in corner shelf in the Sci-Fi/Fantasy section) until recently. Now they seem to have most new stuff from WotC and White Wolf, plus a few relatively high-profile hardcovers from smaller publishers.

 

[Kradlo]

I'm an oldtime gamer (from '77), playing D&D and countless other RPGs. I'm a strong supporter of my Friendly Local Game Store, and do my best to support the industry. That means that I spend my money at the FLGS, and usually only ordering online such products that it doesn't carry.

My miniature collection would surpass most game stores. Okay, most three game stores. Some day, I'll paint them all... assuming that I suddenly had unlimited free time (I paint very well, but oh so slowly).

When the new lead hits the store, I want it, and I get it. But even I can't get it all, because in the real world there are limits to disposable income.

Lately, my FLGS has been ailing for sales. They've stopped keeping up with the new Reaper releases, which has caused me to diminish my buying habits there. Another FLGS has opened up in the area, and now I'm torn between loyalty to my old store, and the bright, shiny new one. The guy that runs it is really cool, and is even running monthly miniature painting contests. It does my heart good to see that kind of person running a game store, but I know that he's facing innumerable obstacles to success. Online sales from sellers that don't have to pay rent on brick-and-mortar stores are hard to compete against, especially when those sellers don't charge sales tax for out-of-state sales. Don't get me wrong, I love a good deal and an attractive discount, but I've got to put my money where my mouth is, so I tend to spend it at these stores.

Maybe I'm just old fashioned, maybe I'm deliberately passing up bargains that another will happily accept, but I know that my hobby is supported by the people that run our FLGS. I may pay a little more (i.e., retail), but I get a place that really cares about the games, and the gamers.

I want my industry to continue. As such, I have to support it, and that means buying the books, buying the figures, and the like. Sure, I didn't need another D20, but playing with a huge brushed steel D20 for Iron Heroes was too cool to pass up. I still have to be selective in what I buy, but that's always going to be the case. Sometimes I've waited to pick up a book because I didn't have a use for it at the time. I was going to pass up Iron Heroes until my group decided to try it out. I'm glad they did, and glad I picked up the book.

To those out there that only shop online because you think you're getting a bargain, remember that bargain when your job gets outsourced to another country that will do it cheaper. Barnes & Noble online just isn't the same as a real game store. If I want a new paperback, I'll hit B&N, but when I want game product, it's my FLGS.

 

[MongooseMatt]

Thank's a lot for that. That was very interesting.

As a big company of print RPGs that also sells pdfs, I was wondering if you could comment on how large is the pdf RPG buisness from your prespective anyway? I realize it's probably much smaller, but I'm wondering just how much of your revenue comes from online pdf versus print products. Are the pdf sales 1% of your RPG revenues? 5%? 10%? What's the scale of their impact?

Of course, you're free to ignore the question. I'll just keep on living in ignorance.

As I said before, I'll chip in where I can.

As a percentage, you are looking at something like 0.0002% However, that is no slight on PDFs, as far as they go - we have just never really attacked that market in any meaningful form. The problem, you see, is that we have to make a conscious decision to make something a PDF as, up until it goes to print, much of the design process is the same - with the same attendant costs. Once you have a final product ready to go, it is all too easy to acknowledge that a paper product will sell more units for more revenue.

That said, we have been fairly astonished with sales via Drivethru - they do not seem to eat our existing paper sales and they amount to thousands of Dollars every month.

 

[rpghost]

i am not a fan of pdfs for the simple fact that i do not have a hard copy at my disposal. if they would produce actual books out of the pdfs, then it would create interest to me.

I hope you know that many books at RPGnow.com are now available in high quality print versions from our store.

James